Serbian signals
In late June, Serbian daily Blic quoted diplomatic sources as saying that the European Union was encouraging the country to apply before the end of this year for membership of the bloc.
But Serbia, well accustomed to living in a world of deep divisions, especially over the Kosovo question, finds itself the subject of strongly opposing camps on its EU membership prospects.
It is not Kosovo that is the issue that will determine whether it joins the EU, Belgrade has been assured time and again, even though there are some dissenting voices on this. The question that will really make the difference is whether Serbia may be deemed officially to be co-operating sufficiently with The Hague tribunal on war crimes in the former Yugoslavia.
In Luxembourg on June 16, the tribunal’s chief prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, said that progress was being made but there was still not full co-operation.
This had the immediate impact of reinforcing the stance taken by The Netherlands and Belgium that until there is full co-operation with the tribunal, the EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), a trade-and-aid deal seen as a precursor to the accession process, cannot be unblocked.
Dutch foreign minister Maxime Verhagen is scheduled to visit Belgrade on July 21, but in the final few weeks before the visit, there seems scant indication that it could see a change in the Dutch position.
Verhagen confirmed that the agenda of his visit to Bulgaria included economic co-operation. However, The Netherlands insisted that as long as Serbia was not fully co-operating with the tribunal, the SAA could not come into effect.
Serbia, naturally, has a different view. Serbian deputy prime minister Bozidar Delic said that Brammertz had said at the Luxembourg meeting that implementing the SAA would in fact help the Hague co-operation process.
Delic said that Belgrade wanted to persuade Verhagen that Serbia was doing everything it could to finalise co-operation with the tribunal, and not only that, to brief him on other aspects of the country’s efforts towards EU readiness, in the hope of getting The Netherlands to change its stance before the EU ministerial meeting scheduled for July 27.
Serbia has no shortage of backers for its EU hopes. Those who have recently reiterated their support include Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, while in Belgrade, news agency Tanjug reported Russian ambassador Aleksandr Konuzin as saying that Moscow had no objection to Serbia – a strong ally, as evidenced by Russia’s firm backing for Serbia on the Kosovo issue – joining the EU.
Recent polls show that most Serbians favour the country joining the EU. On June 19, the head of Serbia’s EU integration office, Milica Delevic, said that the figure was 61 per cent in favour, while on June 21, Tanjug reported the office as saying that support was 79 per cent, up from 61 per cent in December 2008.
Perhaps one of the most influential backers of Serbia making progress towards EU membership is European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, who said on June 22 that Brussels was seeking a way to get the SAA unfrozen.
Taking a position similar to the one that Delic said Brammertz had, Rehn said: "I think that the unfreezing of the interim agreement will have a positive, not negative, impact on Serbia’s co-operation with The Hague.
The second half of the year will see Sweden take over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, meaning that it will fall to it to broker any possible deal, although with the current stance of The Netherlands and Belgium, the possibility of a compromise seems unlikely.
Should Serbia manage to get its EU membership application filed by the end of 2009, and its accession process goes smoothly, current belief is that membership could take up to eight years. Media reports in late June suggested that the thinking was that a number of countries would be accepted into the bloc in one go, the others including Macedonia, Montenegro and possibly Albania.
In the meantime, Belgrade is continuing efforts to send signals about its work with the tribunal.
On June 29, foreign minister Vuk Jeremic told the BBC that 46 out of 48 of those indicted in The Hague had been apprehended. Serbia was working with intelligence services and governments to capture and hand over the remaining two. Jeremic said that Serbia was doing a good job in reforms towards the EU, but repeated what has become Belgrade’s current customary message, that the stalling of the SAA was blocking the process.
But Serbia, well accustomed to living in a world of deep divisions, especially over the Kosovo question, finds itself the subject of strongly opposing camps on its EU membership prospects.
It is not Kosovo that is the issue that will determine whether it joins the EU, Belgrade has been assured time and again, even though there are some dissenting voices on this. The question that will really make the difference is whether Serbia may be deemed officially to be co-operating sufficiently with The Hague tribunal on war crimes in the former Yugoslavia.
In Luxembourg on June 16, the tribunal’s chief prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, said that progress was being made but there was still not full co-operation.
This had the immediate impact of reinforcing the stance taken by The Netherlands and Belgium that until there is full co-operation with the tribunal, the EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), a trade-and-aid deal seen as a precursor to the accession process, cannot be unblocked.
Dutch foreign minister Maxime Verhagen is scheduled to visit Belgrade on July 21, but in the final few weeks before the visit, there seems scant indication that it could see a change in the Dutch position.
Verhagen confirmed that the agenda of his visit to Bulgaria included economic co-operation. However, The Netherlands insisted that as long as Serbia was not fully co-operating with the tribunal, the SAA could not come into effect.
Serbia, naturally, has a different view. Serbian deputy prime minister Bozidar Delic said that Brammertz had said at the Luxembourg meeting that implementing the SAA would in fact help the Hague co-operation process.
Delic said that Belgrade wanted to persuade Verhagen that Serbia was doing everything it could to finalise co-operation with the tribunal, and not only that, to brief him on other aspects of the country’s efforts towards EU readiness, in the hope of getting The Netherlands to change its stance before the EU ministerial meeting scheduled for July 27.
Serbia has no shortage of backers for its EU hopes. Those who have recently reiterated their support include Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, while in Belgrade, news agency Tanjug reported Russian ambassador Aleksandr Konuzin as saying that Moscow had no objection to Serbia – a strong ally, as evidenced by Russia’s firm backing for Serbia on the Kosovo issue – joining the EU.
Recent polls show that most Serbians favour the country joining the EU. On June 19, the head of Serbia’s EU integration office, Milica Delevic, said that the figure was 61 per cent in favour, while on June 21, Tanjug reported the office as saying that support was 79 per cent, up from 61 per cent in December 2008.
Perhaps one of the most influential backers of Serbia making progress towards EU membership is European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, who said on June 22 that Brussels was seeking a way to get the SAA unfrozen.
Taking a position similar to the one that Delic said Brammertz had, Rehn said: "I think that the unfreezing of the interim agreement will have a positive, not negative, impact on Serbia’s co-operation with The Hague.
The second half of the year will see Sweden take over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, meaning that it will fall to it to broker any possible deal, although with the current stance of The Netherlands and Belgium, the possibility of a compromise seems unlikely.
Should Serbia manage to get its EU membership application filed by the end of 2009, and its accession process goes smoothly, current belief is that membership could take up to eight years. Media reports in late June suggested that the thinking was that a number of countries would be accepted into the bloc in one go, the others including Macedonia, Montenegro and possibly Albania.
In the meantime, Belgrade is continuing efforts to send signals about its work with the tribunal.
On June 29, foreign minister Vuk Jeremic told the BBC that 46 out of 48 of those indicted in The Hague had been apprehended. Serbia was working with intelligence services and governments to capture and hand over the remaining two. Jeremic said that Serbia was doing a good job in reforms towards the EU, but repeated what has become Belgrade’s current customary message, that the stalling of the SAA was blocking the process.