By the year 2020, an additional labour force of more than half a million will be necessary to compensate for Bulgaria’s ageing society.
This was the main conclusion at the first national forum on population ageing in Bulgaria, which took place on April 11. It was organised by the Bulgarian Academy of Science (BAN), the National Social Security Institute (NSSI), and the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy.
Research quoted by the BAN shows that by 2020, the population between 15-19 years of age, or in other words the population that becomes economically active, will be half the number of people becoming of pensionable age. Moreover, the proportion between workers and pensioners is almost one to one. Analysts taking part in the forum offered a number of ways to cope with labour insufficiencies resulting from demographic problems.
“Demographic processes are long-lasting processes. We should decide now how to help solve the labour insufficiency issues that Bulgaria is experiencing,” doctor Genoveva Mihova, science secretary of the Centre for Population Research at BAN, told The Sofia Echo.
One way to increase the number of economically active people in Bulgaria would be for 560 000 workers to be “imported” from abroad, Mihova said. Migrants would have to come from less economically developed countries, because salaries in Bulgaria are considerably lower than in other EU countries. As a result, the quality of labour force is likely to be not that good, Mihova said.
An idea that should be considered seriously is opening the Bulgarian labour market to Besarabian Bulgarians. These are people of Bulgarian ethnic descent who live in the region known as Besarabia within Moldova and Ukraine. “The procedure of gaining Bulgarian citizenship or access to the Bulgarian labour market for these people should be eased. If not, labour force gaps would have to be filled with migrant workers from Asian countries such as Afghanistan,” Mihova said. Another option, she said, would be to offer temporary work to non-Bulgarians.
Bringing back those identifying themselves as Bulgarians in Moldova and Ukraine is a possible solution, said the director of the NSSI, Hristina Mitreva. “Those who feel Bulgarian, but are not legally recognised as such, should be given the chance to do so,” she told The Sofia Echo. Mitreva said that Bulgaria needed to consider the overall world tendency of increasing average life expectancy.
Life expectancy in Bulgaria is rising, even though it is considerably lower than other European countries, and this should be taken into account when thinking of ways to solve workforce shortages. “Whether Bulgarians in Moldova and Ukraine should be given access to the labour market in Bulgaria, or the pension age should be increased in order to solve labour problems, are decisions to be taken by those in charge of social and labour policy. What is ultimately important is that right now we must think of what the ratio of workers to pensioners will be in the not too distant future. Measures should then be taken very carefully,” Mitreva said.
NSSI deputy manager Vesela Karaivanova made similar points to The Sofia Echo. She said it was extremely worrying that the current ratio of workers and pensioners was almost one to one. She said that with Bulgaria’s EU membership, a likely future immigrant inflow could have a positive effect on Bulgaria’s labour market and economic growth, as most immigrants were likely to be of economically active age.
However, Mihova of the BAN argued, opening the market to people claiming that they were of Bulgaria descent, or other immigrants, could also cause even more problems. Now that Bulgaria is an EU member, and among other things carries the responsibility of being an EU external border, there are worries that some people could take advantage of work opportunities or citizenship in Bulgaria in order to gain access to more developed EU countries. With this, immigration to Western EU countries would increase, while Bulgaria’s labour and demographic issues will not be solved.
Mihova expects that some percentage of Bulgarian emigrants who did not manage to succeed in developed countries might come back to seek opportunities in their country of birth, particularly now that Bulgaria is an EU member. However, she quoted research saying that not many people wanted to come back. On the basis of this, she said that she expected that the percentage was not likely to be higher than 10 per cent.
On the other hand, the NSSI’s Karaivanova is worried that Bulgaria’s increasing access to opportunities through the free movement of labour is likely to result in “a legal way to depopulation, where Bulgaria would lose its most precious asset – its people”.
Thus, a constructive and consistent policy is necessary to prevent further emigration of people of reproductive and economically active age. Improving the quality of life in every regard, such as education and professional opportunities, family and children, is necessary to encourage young people to remain in Bulgaria. According to Karaivanova, such measures already have been included in the National Employment strategy 2004-2010 and the National Strategy for Demographic Development 2006-2020.
Some aspects of these strategies, Karaivanova said, were already producing positive results. Increasing maternity leave from 135 to 315 days and increasing maternity benefits, which are now 90 per cent of salary, were among positive changes to social policy, she said.
Mihova said that Bulgaria should also consider raising the pension age, or even abolishing it. Those who still feel capable and wish to continue working should be given the chance, she said. Karaivanova said that the Government social policy should be orientated towards equalising the pension age for men and women to 63 years and then think of raising it further.
