If its recent rhetoric on Kosovo is anything to go by, Serbia may take diplomatic action against countries that unilaterally recognise Kosovo’s independence, experts say. A resolution adopted by the Serbian parliament on July 24 obliges the government and other official bodies “to react vigorously” to states unilaterally recognizing Kosovo, while the Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on the same day said countries wishing to entertain “normal and friendly relations” with Serbia must also respect its “territorial integrity”.
Experts believe such diplomatic action would most likely be directed primarily against regional neighbours. However, in the long run, there may be implications for Serbia’s political orientation as a whole.
Kosovo, formally a part of Serbia, has been under provisional international administration since 1999, when a NATO bombing campaign ended in the withdrawal of Serbian forces. Since then, efforts to resolve the province’s international status have failed and no common ground has emerged between Albanians seeking total independence and Serbs, prepared only to grant autonomy.
Belgrade’s strongest card in the negotiations has been the 1999 UN Security Council resolution on Kosovo that describes it as an integral part of Serbia. Russia meanwhile has blocked every attempt by the United States and Western countries to push through a new status proposal for Kosovo foreseeing a form of internationally supervised independence. In consequence, the US has said it remains determined to eventually recognise Kosovo, hinting it may do so even without a new Security Council resolution.
Most of Serbia’s Balkan neighbours have not gone so far and have been reluctant to publicise their future intentions as regards Kosovo. Macedonia’s official line, for example, is that it will await the outcome of international negotiations. However, the Foreign Minister Antonio Milososki was quoted in May as saying that his country may follow the US and some EU countries in recognising Kosovo in the event of UN negotiations falling through. Slovenia and Montenegro may also go for unilateral recognition. Experts say Serbia’s neighbours need to beware of such actions; while Belgrade would hesitate to retaliate against powerful Western and EU countries, it would not have such qualms about its fellow Balkan states.
“If Macedonia and Slovenia recognise Kosovo unilaterally, the consequence may well be severed diplomatic relations with Belgrade, even if this comes at a price for Serbia,” Vladimir Gligorov, of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, said.
“If the current rhetoric continues, we may well move into a situation where the Serbian government’s policy will be one of picking and choosing which countries to cut off diplomatic ties with.”
Judy Batt, of the Institute for Security Studies in Paris, agrees that Serbia’s neighbours will face most of its wrath but adds an important qualification. “Strong action by Serbia against countries in the region may not be construed by the EU as being co-operative,” she said.
Meanwhile governments in the region are playing down the risk of a diplomatic conflict over Kosovo. “We are not considering the option of recognizing Kosovo’s independence unilaterally as we are still waiting for the outcome of the international negotiations,” a Macedonian foreign ministry spokesperson, Spresa Jusufi, told Balkan Insight. “Once we know the outcome we will behave accordingly.”
Montenegro is taking a similar tone. An official statement by the foreign ministry in Podgorica, issued upon request to Balkan Insight, downplayed talk of unilateral moves by any Balkans states.
“Montenegro is not taking any sides. We have good relations with Belgrade and Pristina and want to keep good relations in the future,” it said. “At some stage Montenegro will follow the unified foreign and security policy of the EU as the European perspective is our strategic goal… At the end of the day that is Serbia’s strategic goal as well.”
While Judy Batt thinks Belgrade’s rhetoric is without real substance, Vladimir Gligorov argues that Serbia, by sharpening its tone, is narrowing down its foreign political choices. Gligorov does not believe that Serbia will cut diplomatic relations with Washington if the Americans recognise Kosovo unilaterally, but he says the political pressure will force the Prime Minister to “do something”.
“Kostunica has earlier declared that Serbia is in a metaphorical state of war with the United States and in this situation it will be very difficult for him not to do something,” Gligorov said.
However, Gligorov believes strong action against the US would greatly embarrass the more Western-friendly Democratic Party led by President Boris Tadic, a partner in Kostunica’s government, and may force them to drop out of the government. That in turn might propel the nationalist Serbian Radical Party, the largest party in Serbia, into government together with Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia. In that case, Gligorov predicts, Serbia would shift closer to Russia, its historic ally and recent benefactor in the Kosovo status negotiations.
“Russia will be the only option left. There has been strong rhetoric that Serbia is moving in the direction of closer relations with Russia and the Minister for Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic has also been setting this tone,” Gligorov said.
However, Judy Batt said while there is a lot of rhetoric about Serbia moving closer to Russia “it just doesn’t make sense for Serbia to become integrated with Russia”.
Serbs are certainly not clamouring for a visa free regime with Russia and the majority of public opinion in Serbia believes Europe, not Russia, should be the focus of political efforts, she said.
This is confirmed by the results of a recent opinion poll published by the Serbian office for EU integration. In response to the question: “If Europe recognised Kosovo unilaterally, what should be our foreign policy?”, 71 per cent answered that Serbia should continue its struggle over Kosovo – but without ending diplomatic relations with the EU.
Markus Goransson is a BIRN intern and a student at Oxford University. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication. www.birn.eu.com
