A PHILOSOPHER once wrote that any country is great when its people are great.
But is greatness achievable when the number of people in a country is constantly decreasing?
Ageing and migration are among the greatest problems faced by countries, and Bulgaria is no exception.
Bulgaria is just part of the general trend, especially taking into account the birth rate decrease in recent years, as well as the increase in emigration, mainly by young people. Combined with the age structure of the population of this country, the catastrophic forecasts appear inevitable.
According to recently-released results of the 2001 census, the population of Bulgaria is about eight million people (7 973 673).
In comparison with the previous census of 1992, this is a decrease of 510 000 people. This unfavourable tendency is accompanied by changes in the age structure of the population.
Under-18s make up 19.5 per cent. People aged between 18 and 66 are 63.4 per cent. In less than a decade, the number of people over 65 years old has increased by 150 000.
In Bulgaria there is a constant decrease of the share of population under 14 years of age, which is one of the highest on the Balkans, about 15 per cent.
On the other hand, there is a continuous increase of the ageing population. These processes develop further and, in the next decades, the forecast is that the elderly will be the greatest part of the population. The changes in the age structure influence both the rural and the urban population.
Ageing affects all spheres of economic and social life: health care, employment, labour market, social protection and economic growth. In countries in transition, like Bulgaria, this process is accompanied by a decrease in the income and the financial resources of the population, as well as social and economic tension.
Only the Bulgarian ethnic group, as opposed to those of Turkish, Roma or other descent, is reducing and this could be seen in the very recent data provided by statistical sources.
According to the data of the 2001 census conducted by the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the largest percentage of people, 83.9 per cent, identified themselves as Bulgarians.
The preliminary data of the census put Bulgaria's population at 7 973 673 people, while according to the final results it is 7 928 673. The decrease is due to the negative population growth, expected to be 5.8 per cent at the end of the year, and the mortality rate. Bulgaria's population currently stands at 7 891 095 people, the NSI announced 10 days ago.
For the first time in the 2001 census people gave answers of their free will to the three questions relating to the ethnic composition of the population. The largest percentage of respondents who did not identify their ethnic origin, 6.3 per cent, were in the southern district of Smolyan.
The Bulgarian ethnic group is strong in the districts of Pernik, Western Bulgaria, Sofia and Kyustendil, Southwestern Bulgaria, Vidin and Northwestern Bulgaria. The population of the Bulgarian ethnic group had the largest relative share throughout the 20th century.
Second, but a lot smaller, comes the Turkish ethnic group with 746 664 people, or 9.4 per cent of Bulgaria's population. The Turkish ethnic group increased 1.4 times compared to 1900. The highest concentration of people who identify themselves as belonging to the Turkish ethnic group is in the southern district of Kurdjali, 101 116 people.
The population of the Roma ethnic group grew the most in the past century, by 281 359 people. As at March 2001, Roma in Bulgaria numbered 370 908 people.
The Russian ethnic group has 15 595 people, the Armenian 10 832, and the Wallachian 10 566. Those who said in the census they belonged to the Macedonian ethnic group decreased more than twice compared to 1992, and stood at 5 071 people. There is almost complete correspondence between ethnic group and religious faith but this is subject to other analyses.
With domestic living conditions finally starting to improve, tighter EU immigration rules and the likelihood that, as for Spain, Portugal and Greece, free movement of labour will be one of the last benefits of membership when Bulgaria eventually joins the EU, researchers estimate a fall in net emigration to around 10 000 in 2001 and a continuing decline at about the same rate for the rest of the forecast period. However, even if economic conditions improve, the steady ageing of Bulgaria's population is likely to see the birth rate continue to lag well behind the death rate. As a result, the population will shrink further falling to 7.7 million in 2005 and 7.4 million in 2010, experts predict.
One of the main problems for Bulgaria and a problem that distinguishes the country from European trends is that the age structure is more skewed towards the elderly than in most East European countries. The rate of natural population decline (the difference between the birth and death rates) peaked at over 7 per 1 000 in 1997, as the economic crisis reached its height, and, after declining, rose again to almost 6 per 1 000 in 2001.
The birth rate in 2001 was a strikingly low 8.6 per 1 000 population and the size and age structure of the female population of childbearing age suggest that little increase in this rate can be expected. The death rate has fluctuated since the 1996-97 crisis and may drop a little in the short term as economic conditions gradually improve. Over the longer term, however, the gradual ageing of the population is likely to lead to a further increase in the death rate.
Before the 2001 census, the NSI calculated two variant projections of population by 2020: 7.37 million (high variant) and 6.85 million (low variant). The high variant assumes that fertility rates will rise to 1.7 per woman of childbearing age, whereas the low variant assumes a fertility rate of 1.3 (compared with an average of around 1.23 between 1999 and 2001). Neither assumes high emigration. Based on current evidence, something closer to the low variant seems the most likely and the forecasts are that the population will fall to around 7 million in 2020.
The low proportion of children is attributable to a combination of low levels of fertility and relatively high infant mortality rates (linked to poor nutrition and health facilities). Adult mortality rates are also high, especially for working-age males and older age groups, because of heavy smoking and poor diet.
The social dislocations linked to the economic transition also appear to have contributed to a rise in mortality rates in the 1990s. However, this effect now seems to have been reversed and average life expectancies have risen in the past three years to levels slightly higher than those seen at the beginning of the 1990s (the male average was 68 years in 1989-91, 67.1 in 1995-97 and 68.15 in 1998-2000; the corresponding female figures were 74, 74.3 and 75.3 years, respectively).
Recent data and surveys could only bring us back to July, when the world marked the United Nations appointed World Population Day (July 11). For the first time it was marked in 1990 when the 5 billionth citizen of the planet was born.
Twelve years later, Earth's population keeps growing in number. What are the facts about the number of the people inhabiting this planet, which are the most numerous countries and what is the characterisation and the demographic problems of the population in Bulgaria?
In October 1999 in Sarajevo, Adnan Mevich was born, the officially recognised 6 billionth citizen of the planet. Today, only three years later, the people on Earth are 200 million more. The chart of the most populated countries is headed by China, followed by India and the US. These are also the countries with the highest birth rates in the world. At the same time, UN data show that the population in Europe is growing older. This tendency, together with low birth rate and progressive reduction of the population, is especially true for Bulgaria.
The reasons, according to local sources and the UN, are low birth rate, high death rate, and emigration. Statistical surveys show that the people under 18 in Bulgaria are 1 555 000, which is 19.5 per cent of the population. In comparison with 1992, people under age have reduced in number by 438 000. The birth rate will steadily be growing down as well, experts say.
The economic and social factors are getting more and more important in relation to birth rate. These include unemployment, impoverishment, insecurity and unwillingness to have children. This tendency also shows young people's reluctance to create families and raise children.
The last census in Bulgaria verified yet another fact: men in Bulgaria are already fewer in number than women. The demographic problems in Bulgaria predict the desolation of the small towns and villages. There are already some villages in the highest parts of the mountains that have only one resident. More than half of this country's population is concentrated in the 40 big cities.
More than 30 per cent of the people live in cities that are larger than 100 000 people. These are the capital Sofia, the southern city of Plovdiv, and the Black Sea centres of Varna and Bourgas.
Surveys show that no significant changes have occurred in the ethnic diversity of Bulgaria' population. The ethnic structure comprised mainly of Bulgarians, Turks, Roma, Armenians, Jews and other smaller ethnic groups has not evolved.
Surveys have it that the number of the representatives of all main ethnic groups in Bulgaria is going down while that of the Roma community is rising proportionately. Demographic experts say this is due to the high birth rate in this community. Projections are that the time will come when people of ethnic Bulgarian descent will no longer be the majority group in Bulgaria.
But is greatness achievable when the number of people in a country is constantly decreasing?
Ageing and migration are among the greatest problems faced by countries, and Bulgaria is no exception.
Bulgaria is just part of the general trend, especially taking into account the birth rate decrease in recent years, as well as the increase in emigration, mainly by young people. Combined with the age structure of the population of this country, the catastrophic forecasts appear inevitable.
According to recently-released results of the 2001 census, the population of Bulgaria is about eight million people (7 973 673).
In comparison with the previous census of 1992, this is a decrease of 510 000 people. This unfavourable tendency is accompanied by changes in the age structure of the population.
Under-18s make up 19.5 per cent. People aged between 18 and 66 are 63.4 per cent. In less than a decade, the number of people over 65 years old has increased by 150 000.
In Bulgaria there is a constant decrease of the share of population under 14 years of age, which is one of the highest on the Balkans, about 15 per cent.
On the other hand, there is a continuous increase of the ageing population. These processes develop further and, in the next decades, the forecast is that the elderly will be the greatest part of the population. The changes in the age structure influence both the rural and the urban population.
Ageing affects all spheres of economic and social life: health care, employment, labour market, social protection and economic growth. In countries in transition, like Bulgaria, this process is accompanied by a decrease in the income and the financial resources of the population, as well as social and economic tension.
Only the Bulgarian ethnic group, as opposed to those of Turkish, Roma or other descent, is reducing and this could be seen in the very recent data provided by statistical sources.
According to the data of the 2001 census conducted by the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the largest percentage of people, 83.9 per cent, identified themselves as Bulgarians.
The preliminary data of the census put Bulgaria's population at 7 973 673 people, while according to the final results it is 7 928 673. The decrease is due to the negative population growth, expected to be 5.8 per cent at the end of the year, and the mortality rate. Bulgaria's population currently stands at 7 891 095 people, the NSI announced 10 days ago.
For the first time in the 2001 census people gave answers of their free will to the three questions relating to the ethnic composition of the population. The largest percentage of respondents who did not identify their ethnic origin, 6.3 per cent, were in the southern district of Smolyan.
The Bulgarian ethnic group is strong in the districts of Pernik, Western Bulgaria, Sofia and Kyustendil, Southwestern Bulgaria, Vidin and Northwestern Bulgaria. The population of the Bulgarian ethnic group had the largest relative share throughout the 20th century.
Second, but a lot smaller, comes the Turkish ethnic group with 746 664 people, or 9.4 per cent of Bulgaria's population. The Turkish ethnic group increased 1.4 times compared to 1900. The highest concentration of people who identify themselves as belonging to the Turkish ethnic group is in the southern district of Kurdjali, 101 116 people.
The population of the Roma ethnic group grew the most in the past century, by 281 359 people. As at March 2001, Roma in Bulgaria numbered 370 908 people.
The Russian ethnic group has 15 595 people, the Armenian 10 832, and the Wallachian 10 566. Those who said in the census they belonged to the Macedonian ethnic group decreased more than twice compared to 1992, and stood at 5 071 people. There is almost complete correspondence between ethnic group and religious faith but this is subject to other analyses.
With domestic living conditions finally starting to improve, tighter EU immigration rules and the likelihood that, as for Spain, Portugal and Greece, free movement of labour will be one of the last benefits of membership when Bulgaria eventually joins the EU, researchers estimate a fall in net emigration to around 10 000 in 2001 and a continuing decline at about the same rate for the rest of the forecast period. However, even if economic conditions improve, the steady ageing of Bulgaria's population is likely to see the birth rate continue to lag well behind the death rate. As a result, the population will shrink further falling to 7.7 million in 2005 and 7.4 million in 2010, experts predict.
One of the main problems for Bulgaria and a problem that distinguishes the country from European trends is that the age structure is more skewed towards the elderly than in most East European countries. The rate of natural population decline (the difference between the birth and death rates) peaked at over 7 per 1 000 in 1997, as the economic crisis reached its height, and, after declining, rose again to almost 6 per 1 000 in 2001.
The birth rate in 2001 was a strikingly low 8.6 per 1 000 population and the size and age structure of the female population of childbearing age suggest that little increase in this rate can be expected. The death rate has fluctuated since the 1996-97 crisis and may drop a little in the short term as economic conditions gradually improve. Over the longer term, however, the gradual ageing of the population is likely to lead to a further increase in the death rate.
Before the 2001 census, the NSI calculated two variant projections of population by 2020: 7.37 million (high variant) and 6.85 million (low variant). The high variant assumes that fertility rates will rise to 1.7 per woman of childbearing age, whereas the low variant assumes a fertility rate of 1.3 (compared with an average of around 1.23 between 1999 and 2001). Neither assumes high emigration. Based on current evidence, something closer to the low variant seems the most likely and the forecasts are that the population will fall to around 7 million in 2020.
The low proportion of children is attributable to a combination of low levels of fertility and relatively high infant mortality rates (linked to poor nutrition and health facilities). Adult mortality rates are also high, especially for working-age males and older age groups, because of heavy smoking and poor diet.
The social dislocations linked to the economic transition also appear to have contributed to a rise in mortality rates in the 1990s. However, this effect now seems to have been reversed and average life expectancies have risen in the past three years to levels slightly higher than those seen at the beginning of the 1990s (the male average was 68 years in 1989-91, 67.1 in 1995-97 and 68.15 in 1998-2000; the corresponding female figures were 74, 74.3 and 75.3 years, respectively).
Recent data and surveys could only bring us back to July, when the world marked the United Nations appointed World Population Day (July 11). For the first time it was marked in 1990 when the 5 billionth citizen of the planet was born.
Twelve years later, Earth's population keeps growing in number. What are the facts about the number of the people inhabiting this planet, which are the most numerous countries and what is the characterisation and the demographic problems of the population in Bulgaria?
In October 1999 in Sarajevo, Adnan Mevich was born, the officially recognised 6 billionth citizen of the planet. Today, only three years later, the people on Earth are 200 million more. The chart of the most populated countries is headed by China, followed by India and the US. These are also the countries with the highest birth rates in the world. At the same time, UN data show that the population in Europe is growing older. This tendency, together with low birth rate and progressive reduction of the population, is especially true for Bulgaria.
The reasons, according to local sources and the UN, are low birth rate, high death rate, and emigration. Statistical surveys show that the people under 18 in Bulgaria are 1 555 000, which is 19.5 per cent of the population. In comparison with 1992, people under age have reduced in number by 438 000. The birth rate will steadily be growing down as well, experts say.
The economic and social factors are getting more and more important in relation to birth rate. These include unemployment, impoverishment, insecurity and unwillingness to have children. This tendency also shows young people's reluctance to create families and raise children.
The last census in Bulgaria verified yet another fact: men in Bulgaria are already fewer in number than women. The demographic problems in Bulgaria predict the desolation of the small towns and villages. There are already some villages in the highest parts of the mountains that have only one resident. More than half of this country's population is concentrated in the 40 big cities.
More than 30 per cent of the people live in cities that are larger than 100 000 people. These are the capital Sofia, the southern city of Plovdiv, and the Black Sea centres of Varna and Bourgas.
Surveys show that no significant changes have occurred in the ethnic diversity of Bulgaria' population. The ethnic structure comprised mainly of Bulgarians, Turks, Roma, Armenians, Jews and other smaller ethnic groups has not evolved.
Surveys have it that the number of the representatives of all main ethnic groups in Bulgaria is going down while that of the Roma community is rising proportionately. Demographic experts say this is due to the high birth rate in this community. Projections are that the time will come when people of ethnic Bulgarian descent will no longer be the majority group in Bulgaria.
