For people in the Gaza strip, the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Palestinian militants on June 25 and 27, and the Israeli retaliation on bridges and Gaza strip's only power station days after, may have looked like the regular Middle East flare up.

On June 28, when Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel would use “extreme measures” to rescue their prisoners, it still didn't look like the Middle East would be measuring muscle in another war.  The previous day, Hamas had even signed an agreement that aimed to end conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, in which it implicitly recognised Israel. So things appeared  OK.

And then came Lebanon.

And, some observers noted, it was time – the Middle East plunges into crisis each eight or so years, and it had been over seven that pressure had been building in the Middle East.

There's lots of speculation as to why the conflict has erupted now, said American University in Bulgaria political science professor Benedict DeDominicis. And we don't know the full story, he said. What we do know, though, is that part of the increasing tension in the region has been piling up since President George W. Bush included Hezbollah and Hamas in the list of the so-called axis of evil, and further escalated after the US invaded Afghanistan and then moved against Iraq. Israel itself encourages pan-Islamist regimes through its unwillingness to give Palestinians genuine sovereignty for a viable defendable Palestinian state, DeDominicis said. And bad things follow.

Over 200 Lebanese and some 20 Israelis died within six days of warfare.

The victims have, historically, always been more on the Muslim side. As Israeli embassy deputy chief of mission Uri Resnik said, “the sad truth is that Hezbollah deliberately and cynically puts missile launchers in civilian buildings. Israel has taken the utmost measures to avoid civilian casualties to the extent of compromising its own self-defence – it warned Lebanese citizens to leave before it attacks.” It was absolutely the fault of Hezbollah that 200 died because it put their weapons in civilian areas, Resnik said.

The fact that more Muslims die in the Middle East is, also partly a result of Jews'  “unbelievable precision,” said a Christian Lebanese citizen who spoke to The Sofia Echo on condition of anonymity. “Imagine two small villages one next to the other – the Muslim one is destroyed, and the Christian one has not a single window broken. Their aim is to destroy Hezbollah. They hadn't touched Lebanon at all lately. Not a single time. That is, after the assassination of Rafik Harriri, a very good democratic process started here. A decision was taken not to provoke Israel.”

So, why now?

“A part of Israel's war rationale is that they had allowed themselves to appear week by withdrawing from Gaza - people are making that argument,” DeDominicis said. But, otherwise, “Israel has objectives that go beyond security in the Middle East, he said, meaning that his views in this respect coincide with those of the AAAB, which called the two Israeli prisoners a decoy to hide larger Israeli interests.

Israel is driven by a greater Israel agenda,” DeDominicis said. And part of Israeli power is based on the assumption that their enemies only understand the language of force. One of the things they want to show is that they can be ruthlessly violent and generate tremendous costs and that they have the will to punish these people.”

Another thing is that Israel's position in the Middle East has indeed rarely been stronger. “In the long term, the balance of power will continue to shift in favour of Israel, insofar as there is no radical regime change in the Middle East and as long as, you know, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf states, stay pro-American. They have American military force all over the Middle East  - Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, now they are in Iraq. They are even patrolling the border between Israel and Egypt in the Sinai. “So now they feel that they can address these so-called terrorists once and for all. Whereas Hezbollah’s strategy is apparently to show that Israel can’t do much more than it is doing, which is drop bombs.”

The rest of Hezbollah's aims are more in the sphere of speculation, DeDominicis said. The view that the current Bush administration would have is that Iran and Syria are using Hezbollah as a tool to punish and provoke in a time when Iran is being pressed to give up its nuclear programme. “But a number of Iranian experts who both support and oppose the Iranian regime are very skeptical about that version and do not view Hezbollah as having taken orders from Iran or Syria,” DeDomnicis said. He agreed with that point of view as well, pointing to the high losses that Hezbollah has had to sustain during the course of the war. The Alliance of Arabian Associations in Bulgaria, naturally, rejected the Iran and Syria link as well.

The rest appears to be the Middle Eastern power logic: “The Guardian made a point that Jewish nationals in the Middle East and the Arab Islamic militants both use each other to achieve their objectives, whereas the president of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is in the middle, and represents someone who may want to compromise and accept a solution with Israel.

Speculation put out by the media was that Hezbollah leader – Hasan Nasrallah – had staged events so that he  has Israel appear as the aggressor. Indeed, initial reactions around the world asked Israel to curb violence.

Resnick, when asked if he thought that Israel loses more than it gains by going on the attack and causes greater dislike for Israel in Lebanon, which was nevertheless too pro-Hezbollah, said that this is hardly the impression that you get “if you look at the G8 declaration – that is. Israel is well within its rights and, if anything, it has displayed a great amount of respect (in warning Lebanese citizens about the attacks beforehand). And, the truth is, that seems to be  the impression of most world powers today". 

Does Resnick, then, see Israel as becoming stronger in this conflict over the course of time? “Absolutely. One of the things that is important now is the fact that the attacks in southern Lebanon and Gaza are coming from two places which Israel evacuated completely in recent years and has no territorial disputes over, to the centimetre.  And this is recognised by the international community (along with the fact that) we are simply acting in self defence.  We are doing what any reasonable, civilised country would do, posed with such a tremendous threat,” he said.

The tremendous threat, however, is more in the sphere of speculation also, it appears.

DeDominicis: “I think that pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism will in the long term fail, unless we see a regime change in some of these  pro-American states  - at least one.” This is the only way that pan-Islamist strategies can work. And to understand pan-Islamic strategy, you have to think in those radical terms. Тhere's a lot of different complex, fascinating, terribly bloody and violent scenarios you can imagine,” DeDominicis said.

In the meantime, Israel benefits from the fact that Saudi Arabia and other Arab regimes have come out quite critical of Hezbollah in what Resnik called “this episode”.

Countries throughout the world are at the moment retrieveing tens of thousands of their citizens from Lebanon. Israel has agreed to co-ordinate with foreign governments to allow their citizens to leave, Resnik said.

About 270 Bulgarians have contacted the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry and the Bulgarian Embassy in Lebanon, requesting evacuation. On July 19,  10  were scheduled to be transported back to Bulgaria in a Norwegian ship, and 260 other to be transported to Syria and then flown or driven back to Bulgaria, the AAAB said. The problem were still those citizens, Bulgarian and other, who were stranded in southern Lebanon, and the many others who were dying on the roads as they tried to leave. About 25 to 30 Bulgarians were stranded in southern Lebanon, the AAAB said. “The region is under constant fire and it is safer for them to stay where they are because there is no mechanism to get them out of the region as of the moment,” AAAB said.

The interesting thing to see here is if China and Russia will decide to play a wider role in the affair, DeDomnicis said.

And, of course, how long all this would last.

The answer that came from Israel was confident but vague enough - as long as it takes to get those two soldiers back, and have Hezbollah withdraw at least 40 kilometres deeper into Lebanon.