Polling agencies agreed ahead of the October 28 municipal elections that Boiko Borissov would be re-elected as mayor of Sofia, but only after fighting a second-round battle – however strong his popularity, it would not be strong enough to guarantee victory in a single day.

Pollsters did not agree on who would face Borissov in the second round. The battle for second place will be between Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) candidate Brigo Asparouhov (pictured, bottom left) and Martin Zaimov (bottom right), nominated by the two right-wing parties the Unions of Democratic Forces and the Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria.

After the presidential elections in 2001, when all polling agencies failed to predict the victory of current President Georgi Purvanov, the most common word in pollsters’ statements today is predictably “if”.

In a survey done for Bulgarian-language 24 Chassa daily, BBSS Gallup International said that Borissov could win on the first round if more than 50 per cent of Sofians go out to vote. If 40 per cent of Sofians were to vote, Borissov would face Zaimov on the second round on November 4.

If the turn out is 30 per cent, Asparouhov will be at the runoff vote. The difference between Zaimov and Asparouhov, according to BBSS Gallup International, was less than one per cent. Borissov had 49.5 per cent, Zaimov 17.2 per cent and Asparouhov 16.1 per cent. Fourth was Antonia Purvanov from the National Movement for Stability and Progress with 3.9 per cent, in no position to challenge Zaimov or Asparouhov.

Kolyo Kolev from Mediana polling agency told commercial national TV channel bTV on October 24 that the elections in Sofia would go to a second round, and that Borissov’s opponent would be not Zaimov, but Asparouhov. Fourth again was Purvanova, according to Kolev, who questioned Gallup’s numbers.

Barometer Info (BI) said that less than half of Sofians had decided to vote, and put Borissov in the lead with 32.9 per cent. Asparouhov was second with 8.49 per cent, followed by Zaimov with 7.55 per cent. According to BI, Asparouhov and Zaimov could rely on winning the second place only if they succeeded in winning the support of the 18 per cent of Sofians who had not yet decided whether to vote. BI shared the conclusion of their colleagues that the outcome of the elections on October 28 would depend solely on voter turnout. If it is less than 30 per cent, BSP hard-core supporters will be Asparouhov’s ace against Zaimov. Proof that Zaimov himself felt insecure in the loyalty of right-wing Sofians lay in his controversial statement on October 24, when he told an election meeting that if he failed to reach the second round he would find a way to support Georgi Kadiev, head of the list of BSP candidate councillors, because Kadiev, not Asparouhov, was the real representative of the left-wing in Sofia.

* Visit www.sofiaecho.com on October 28 for unfolding coverage of the municipal elections results.