SPECIAL strategies and a dedicated group are being set up to counteract the steady decline in Bulgaria’s population numbers, which some say is setting the scene for a labour market crisis in decades to come.

President Georgi Purvanov has described the falling numbers of Bulgaria’s population as a “national security issue”.

After a meeting on January 9 of the national security council, convened by the President, proposals for a number of steps to counteract the problem emerged.

They include:

· As a short-term measure, giving Bulgarian emigrants and expatriates financial incentives to return to the country;

· In the long term, improving the financial incentives for people to have children.

According to a report by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, released ahead of the January 9 meeting, Bulgaria’s birth rate is among the lowest in Europe, while its mortality rate is among the highest.

Combined with the factor that an estimated 700 000 people have left the country since 1989, projections are that the current population will drop by a million by 2020, and by 2050 will be between 4.5 million and 5.5 million.

The birth rate has been dropping rapidly. In 1989, there were 112 289 births, but in 2005 the figure was 72 751. With a mortality rate of about 13 to 14 in 1000, the rate of population shrinkage - the deficit between the rate of births and deaths - is about 40 000 people a year. Some estimates give a higher figure, of about 90 000 a year.

There is a profound socio-economic aspect.

Tatyana Kotseva, of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences’ centre for demographic studies, said that half of the Roma minority that is responsible for 13 per cent of the births each year were illiterate or had a low level of education.

On January 5, a group of 26 Bulgarian scientists and public figures founded a national council on demographic issues. The group was founded at the initiative of Purvanov, ahead of the January 9 meeting of the national security council.

One of the demographic council’s members, social scientist Mihail Mirchev, told a news conference that the trends of educated people leaving the country, and of a higher proportion of the population being poorly educated, could lead to a labour market crisis and other serious economic problems.

According to Bulgarian news agency BTA, Mirchev said that the state needed to acknowledge that there was a problem, and to make the issue a national priority.

Lalko Doulevski, the chairperson of the Economic and Social Council, said that finding a solution to Bulgaria’s demographic problems was a matter of urgency.

Speaking at the January 9 meeting, Purvanov had a message that Bulgaria needed not only to produce children, but to ensure that they had quality upbringing.

Purvanov said that steps were needed to encourage responsible parents who took good care of their children, and measures to sanction irresponsible parents.

He said that in addressing the problem, the emphasis should be on investments in education and health, rather than on direct funding for children.

A strategy for demographic development will be worked out by the end of 2006, Purvanov said. Several ministries were participating in drafting the strategy.

Purvanov called for the issue not to be politicised, and urged people to regard all born in Bulgaria as Bulgarians. He said this against a background of projections that, by 2050, about 40 per cent of the country’s population will be people from ethnic minorities. This statement from Purvanov drew criticism from nationalist circles.

Purvanov also called for a wide-ranging public debate on the issue, and urged the media and NGOs to participate in this debate.

Speaking on January 9, Labour and Social Policy Minister Emilia Maslarova said that income, standards of living, education and health were key to encouraging demographic development.

Her ministry’s proposals include a consolidation of research on children in Bulgaria, alternative forms of social protection for the needy, and incentives to encourage Bulgarians living outside the country to return.

She said that her ministry would work out two plans for demographic development, one covering 2006 to 2020, and the other 2007 to 2009. The ministry is to set up a special department dealing with “demographic policy, social investments and equal opportunities”. This body will engage in researching and monitoring demographic changes.

Maslarova said that the ministry had drafted legislation introducing the concept of “social investments”. A “social investments in children” programme is to be launched soon in seven municipalities, and is to last six months. After an evaluation, the programme will be expanded to the rest of the country.