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Sounding Board - NATO: realpolitik vs real estate
15:00 Thu 08 Apr 2004
 
Sir

LAST week's letter by Tim Buisseret was thought-provoking, if not for any other reason than the fact that a long-term resident of Bulgaria remains disturbed by unfinished business in Bulgaria.

In a country (and a region) where conspiracy theories abound and enemies remain a fluid commodity, the most important immediate value that NATO can provide in contemporary Bulgaria is probably going to be real estate appraisal.

After hundreds of casual conversations over the past three years about NATO with Bulgarians, I heard two statements repeated continuously: "NATO will bring security and more foreign investment" or "I will wait until after NATO membership to sell my house".

Rarely did anyone speak about Western values or protection from external enemies. Of course we in the West now receive our values from cable TV and external enemies are usually credit card bills or unruly waiters at some budget resort near salt water. Our values have merged with Bulgarians long before NATO started issuing invoices.

Back in the good old days when NATO had external adversaries, the trans-Atlantic alliance represented a value structure that was clearly defined for all to see: The alliance reinforced existing and re-emerging democratic institutions in countries with shared historical values and experiences. Of course the EURO-left always pointed towards the less-than-democratic exceptions of Turkey, southern Italy, Spain, Portugal and an interim period in Greece under the NATO umbrella, when NATO's values were questioned. Nonetheless, when the variables of private sector economy, family vs. state institutions, the role of the church and publicly-sanctioned nepotism are added up, NATO's hand in fostering authoritarian regimes becomes less apparent.

In Bulgaria, there are obviously a few people who still wonder if NATO membership will actually bring more stability to the country. If we look beyond the positives of macro-economic stability, Brits buying up cheap second homes and genuine growth in Bulgarian SMEs, the alarming instability factor of judicial breakdown and well-entrenched organised crime continues unabated. The interesting question is, why is the latter is not affecting the former? My answer is that public silence (i.e. Bulgarian) and aggressive non-intervention (i.e. European Union and US) has re-affirmed the value structure that NATO members actually share and abide by.

This shared interest in fostering silence breeds the stability that we in the business community need to grow our companies and pay our employees. The only problem with this is that the bills will come later. Massive organised crime structures (domestic and foreign) are detrimental to the development of viable state structures in countries like Bulgaria. As NATO expands into new real estate ventures such as Bulgaria, collective security must take on new responsibilities.

However, I am sure that older alliance members will say that domestic issues are just that, domestic issues. Other members will say that NATO's mission is terrorism and battles to be fought are far away now. Think again. The alliance still has major unfinished business in Kosovo, the Serbs need to be brought into the fold and taken out of the courtroom, and NATO will most likely need to re-visit FYROM in the next year or two. Yes, these are all "domestic issues" that NATO is dealing with, and will need to deal with, while the war on terrorism rages on.

The stability of Bulgaria is genuine, sound and built on the solid foundations of political consensus and economic growth. However, "the forces of evil" that Tim Buisseret alluded to, go far beyond ex-communists who salted away massive amounts of money. Residents of Sofia just have to count the number of new model BMWs, Mercedes and 100 000 euro 4x4s illegally parked in front of three Sofia night clubs on any given Friday night, and then reality leaves the virtual stability platitudes served up by the multilaterals. Organised crime thrives on a breakdown of shared values and viable state structures. Terrorism is fueled by the same, and they often share the same flight path.

At the end of the day, NATO is only as good as its members and its mission will be determined by legal tender (i.e. money) spent on issues or events that are worth dying for. That was, and will remain, the cornerstone of NATO's real estate appraisal.



- Philip H. Bay

Sofia

 
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