On May 11, the Serbian people went to the polls to have their say on the major issue for the country ever since Kosovo broke away in February, namely, which way to go – East or West. The results, however, turned out to be not as decisive as many would have wanted.

For the time being, Serbia is not going anywhere before it walks the thorny path of hard coalition talks, compromise and political bargains.

Surprisingly, the For a European Serbia pro-Western coalition, led by president Boris Tadic and his Democratic Party (DS), managed to overcome the nearly two per cent gap that, according to pollsters, left it behind the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and won the elections.

What it did not manage, however, was to collect sufficient votes to single-handedly form a government so it will need to find coalition partners. Which may prove a big task. Tadic himself could not have put it better, when in the evening after the elections he said, as quoted by Balkan Insight online publication, “I’m not celebrating tonight, I’m getting ready for difficult talks”.

Having counted 99.58 per cent of the ballots, Serbia’s electoral commission RIK announced the DS coalition gathered 38.4 per cent of the votes, which secured it 102 seats in the 250-seat parliament. The SRS, headed by deputy leader Tomislav Nikolic in the absence of leader Vojislav Seselj, who is currently on trial for war crimes in the Hague, came second with 29.4 per cent and 78 seats, while outgoing moderate nationalist prime minister Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) – New Serbia (NS) coalition won 11.6 per cent and 30 seats.

The one-time Milosevic stronghold, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)-led coalition, received more than what was expected – 7.6 per cent and 20 seats, while the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the only Serbian party saying Kosovo should be let go, barely passed the five per cent threshold, gathering 5.2 per cent and 13 seats.

The SRS and the DSS both said they will not form a government with the DS, which is only logical given the irreconcilable differences in the positions of the nationalists and the Democrats. It was precisely these differences that caused the break-up of the Kostunica cabinet and the holding of the snap polls. In March, the DS-DSS-G 17 Plus coalition was torn apart by the failure of Kostunica and Tadic to come to terms on how to proceed in the aftermath of Kosovo’s independence. Kostunica insisted that all ties with the European Union be cut off as long as most of its member states recognised the self-proclaimed Kosovar republic and that relations with Russia, who has firmly backed Serbia on its Kosovo stand, be boosted instead.

Tadic, although also affirming that Kosovo should be part of Serbia, remained firm that the future of the country was with the EU.

Given the SRS and the DSS will not ally with the DS, the possible scenarios for the outcome of the elections are intriguing.

On May 12, talks between the two nationalist parties began, suggesting a SRS-DSS coalition was very likely.

“They met and talked about the character, aims and manifesto of a future government, and about what the aims and interests of the Serbian citizens were... Nothing is over yet but I think that a significant consensus over the key matters concerning our country exists”, Balkan Insight quoted SRS secretary general Aleksandar Vucic as telling a news conference following the first post-election talks between Nikolic and Kostunica. However, even if the SRS and the DSS joined forces, they would have only 108 seats and would need the support of a third party to form a government.

The situation for Tadic’s Democrats is no better in itself. They will probably have no problems securing a coalition with the LDP, but even then, with the total of 115 seats in the Skupstina, they will be 11 seats short of a majority.

All this brings no one else but the Socialists into the spotlight. The SPS is now very likely to become the kingmaker of the next Serbian government with the 20 MPs they will have in parliament. “The SPS will decide who puts together the new cabinet,” analyst Slobodan Antonic said, as quoted by Serbian broadcaster B92. SPS’s negotiating position was “tricky, since their voters are closer to the DSS-NS coalition and the Radicals”, although the party “could stand to gain more” if it joined the DS coalition.

“This is our political comeback. We are the only real winner of these elections,” Ivica Dacic, leader of the Socialists, said.

“We will first talk to Kostunica’s coalition about future steps, whoever wants to count on us, must base their politics on two principles: the protection of state and national interests and social justice for citizens. That’s what we are interested in, not mere power,” he said.

Meanwhile, the West hailed the win of the Democrats.

“The European Commission has received the first results of the elections, and welcomes the success of reformist forces that share European values,” EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn said in a statement, quoted by B92.

Dimitrij Rupel, foreign minister of Slovenia, the country currently holding the EU Presidency, told Reuters:  “Serbia’s pro-European forces have won, which was our aim in the EU. It looks as if Tadic’s Democrats will have a significant role, which pleases me greatly”.

US state department spokesperson Sean McCormack said that Washington “encourages Serbia to look ahead and not backwards, and to move towards the direction of a new, different future with the European Union”.