Politics is sometimes enveloped by what seasoned commentators always refer to as "a sea change", a tangible shift in public mood that can almost be detected in the air. Is the UK in the grip of one now?
During the winter of 1978/9 – Britain's so-called Winter of Discontent – you certainly felt the move to the Right. Many people, even former Labour supporters who, out of tribal loyalty, had never voted Conservative in their lives, concluded that the trade unions wielded too much power, that the overweening state was propping up ailing British industry with taxpayers' money, that endless strikes were bringing Britain to its knees. This seismic shift heralded a Thatcherite hegemony that lasted throughout the 1980s and into the early 1990s in spite of high unemployment, economic fluctuations and perennial internal Conservative rows about the European Union and Britain's role in it.
Around the end of 1992, and particularly following Britain's departure from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), voters lost confidence in the Conservatives. And, unlike in the 1980s, when Labour was led by leftwingers Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock, and the party advocated socialism and redistribution, the Labour (now christened New Labour under Blair's leadership) opposition started to seem trustworthy and safe. Alongside this was a growing belief that the Conservatives had undermined the National Health Service, eroded local democracy and cultivated a culture of greed and selfishness, a "me first" society.
Looking back, I don't think that Blair's landslide victory in 1997 signified any desire to return to socialist values. It was a vote for the centre-left and, above all, greater social fairness. People came to favour the idea of a minimum wage as a protection against poverty pay. They also felt that the Conservatives had deliberately neglected the state sector – particularly schools and hospitals – perhaps as an (unspoken but) implicit policy of encouraging people to go private.
Back in 1997, I remember thinking that Labour would win at least two more elections. I also forecast that the next Conservative prime minister probably wasn't even in the House of Commons yet. I was right on both counts, not that this required a prophetic genius since Labour enjoyed a majority of 179 at the time!
Now, 11 years on, I'm sensing that Labour is coming to – if not the end – then at least the beginning of the end. Labour's hold on power was based on sound economic stewardship. This has now evaporated as recession strikes and property prices tumble. Labour's promise to be "tough on crime and the causes of crime" now also seems rather hollow in the light of bursting prisons, early release of violent offenders and perpetual stories of drunken hooliganism.
Having waited in the wings for so long to assume the crown, Gordon Brown now cuts an uncomfortable and embattled figure as prime minister. According to leaked reports, Brown has been throwing mobile phones around the office and screaming at staff. So is Labour's period in government really coming to end? Is David Cameron ready to move in to Number 10 Downing Street next year or in 2010? Is this really the end of New Labour?
