As I sat in a taxi, about to miss the international train to Istanbul for which I had already purchased my ticket, it occurred to me how much Bulgaria’s capital has changed in the past few years. The typically eight-minute, three leva ride to the train station was turning into a nightmarish ordeal, nearing an hour. I resigned myself to missing the train, and foregoing the cost of the ticket. The traffic was simply impossible, and it wasn’t due to a holiday, Levski match, protest or inclement weather. Just everyday traffic as Sofia grows and car ownership explodes. Such traffic was simply unheard of just a few years ago. It seems as if Sofia is filling up. Luckily, the train was late also, as the international line from Belgrade is so often.
As a testament to the crowding of Sofia, Bulgarians are commuting to work for longer than anyone would have imagined before. Hour-long commutes are no longer uncommon, some are even longer. The traffic, tight housing rental market and perpetually crowded downtown restaurants are all signs of Sofia’s draw and growth. Some claim as many as two million people may now live in Sofia, about 50 per cent more than the official data suggests. It feels as if Sofia is bursting at the seams. The grim truth, however, is that despite Sofia’s growth, the country is actually in the midst of a drastic population decline.
Beginnings of the diminution
Ironically, the demographic turning point was in 1989, just as Bulgaria was preparing to celebrate the much-anticipated birth of the nine millionth Bulgarian. Though shortly before that milestone was achieved, hopes were dashed as the country recorded a negative population growth rate. Every year since, population growth in Bulgaria has been negative. Furthermore, there is little hope that this trend will reverse itself in the coming decades and Bulgaria’s population is expected to continue to shrink. The unrealised dream of the nine millionth Bulgarian has long been abandoned, and replaced with the uncertainty of a population freefall.
Population loss is not a phenomenon unique to Bulgaria. In fact, the alarm bells heralding depopulation have been ringing for years across the developed world, and in Europe in particular. Many European countries are either approaching zero growth, or have already slipped into the negative growth zone. According to projections by the United Nations Population Division, Europe may decrease by as many as 75 million people by 2050, approximately a 10 per cent decrease from today.
Though not alone in decline, what makes Bulgaria exceptional is the rate at which the population is shrinking. Bulgaria’s population is simply disappearing much faster than any other European country. By mid-century, most projections show that Bulgaria’s population may decrease by about 2.5 million people. In absolute numbers, this is less than that expected in several other countries. However, as a percentage, this represents an astounding loss of more than 30 per cent of the present population. This places Bulgaria in first place, or last, depending on the point of view, of this demographic trend.
Why?
The basic three factors that lead to population loss are low birth rates, higher death rates and negative net migration. Poor performance in all three categories puts Bulgaria in dire demographic straights. Currently, the total fertility rate for Bulgaria is about 1.3 children per woman, among the lowest in the world. This means the average Bulgarian woman is expected to have 1.3 children over the course of her lifetime. Obviously, fertility rates lower than two children per woman lead to natural population loss as not every couple even replaces themselves. Bulgarians are simply not having enough children to sustain the population. Young people in Bulgaria cite fewer children as an ideal. Furthermore, they are marrying later, if at all, and delaying childbirth to later years. These are common trends in Europe and the developing world. However, a few facts once again set Bulgaria apart. In some recent years, the number of abortions has almost matched that of live births, an unacceptably high number. Also, the number of children born out of wedlock now account for half of all childbirths.
The financial strain of raising children is often cited as the primary reason for small family sizes. With an economy still in transition, and wages far below the European average, Bulgarians feel they simply cannot afford to have children. However, in Germany, Italy and Japan, comparatively more wealthy counties, birthrates also remain far below replacement levels. Apparently, there must be a larger combination of social, cultural, historical and religious factors that somehow mix to yield Bulgaria’s faster rate of population loss.
Another major contributing factor to population loss in Bulgaria is negative net migration. Every year, more people simply leave Bulgaria than arrive, thousands of them. The primary reason for this is simple economics. The high unemployment and low wages in Bulgaria is a powerful driving force behind economic migrants.
Furthermore, several recent studies have shown that if people feel there will be significant improvements in the future, they are more likely to remain and start families.
While there are many signs of improvement, they do not seem positive enough to date to counter the lure of higher wages offered abroad. Many Bulgarians are voicing their exasperation with the government and the slow pace of reforms by simply leaving the country in search of a new life. To compound the problem, most emigrants are typically the young and well-educated. Their continued departure leaves behind an ageing and less skilled workforce.
In the short run, Bulgaria’s new membership in the European Union may only exacerbate its migration woes. With the freedom to travel, study and, in some cases, work in member states, there is little doubt that more will go and take their chances. In the past, even despite strict visa requirements, Bulgarians succeeded in migrating to Western Europe in large numbers. Many say that at this point, anyone planning to leave would have done so already. To some degree, this may be true and a large wave of emigrants is not expected. However, a modest increase in the flow out of the country is assumed, to the continuing detriment of the situation.
Country mouse, city mouse
Internal migration is also changing the face of Bulgaria. The continuing period of economic transition since 1989 has clearly benefitted some areas more than others.
Business is booming in Sofia, along the Black Sea coast and in the mountain resorts. The construction cranes of seemingly unrestricted building can be difficult to miss.
Yet much of the country has seen little improvement, and in many cases only continued decline.
Just as the international emigrant leaves Bulgaria in search of higher wages abroad, many Bulgarians are giving up on their small towns and villages and are flocking to larger cities with higher wages. The result is that entire villages are simply emptying out. Villages that once had hundreds of residents lie virtually abandoned. There are already dozens of these ghost towns across Bulgaria, and in the near future there will be hundreds.
Most people’s initial reaction to population loss in their country is overwhelmingly negative. The gut reaction seems to be based more on national pride, or on an innate biological human drive to grow and expand, ensuring prosperity and survival, than on more practical consequences. To a large degree, however, the concern is justified as population decline presents significant economic challenges.
Hitting home
Put very simply, a country’s GDP can be seen as the number of workers multiplied by their productivity. A reduction in the number of workers would yield a corresponding decrease in output, or GDP. Luckily, things are rarely so simple. Even as Bulgaria’s workforce has shrunk over the last 10 years, the country has consistently posted positive economic growth. This was possible through gains in productivity of each worker and the efficiency of privatisation. But with some predicting almost a 50 per cent reduction in working age people in the coming decades, continued GDP growth amid these losses seems fanciful at best. If the workforce shrinks too much, and the elderly become too many, an accompanying economic contraction may be wholly unavoidable.
The unstoppable clock
Another economic problem does not have to do only with how many people there are, but how old they are. Bulgaria currently has a comparatively high average age of more than 40 years and an age structure becoming ever more top-heavy. Already, there are about three workers supporting every two pensioners. As the population continues to age and retire, and is not replaced, the worker-to-retiree ratio will become even lower, perhaps even reaching one to one. The workforce may simply not be big enough to support the pensioners that will gradually represent a larger percentage of the population.
As in many other ageing countries, it is well known that the social security system will become completely insolvent in several decades. It is not clear how this shortfall will be made up for and how pensions will be paid. The strain to provide pensions and health services to the large number of elderly retirees may divert much needed resources from important projects in education, infrastructure or business development. Many wonder if Bulgaria will come to resemble a retirement community.
Furthermore, the elderly generally consume less, with the exception of medical services. This presents two problems. First, as the population not only shrinks in absolute numbers, but also becomes disproportionately old, demand for many consumer goods will decrease. Second, demand for medical services will rise. Bulgaria is already experiencing a shortage of medical resources, such as nurses and hospital beds. As the population as a whole shrinks and the need for medical services continues to rise, a larger portion of the economy will be focused on providing health care. Though undoubtedly important and necessary, it will not help stimulate economy growth.
Fears of ‘gypsification’
Another common concern associated with population issues in Bulgaria is “gypsification”, the rapid growth of the Roma minority. Birthrates are much higher among the Roma minority than the national average, currently between three and four children per woman. There is little doubt that in the near future, the Roma minority will continue to grow as a percentage of the population. The real question is for how long and by how much.
Complicating the question is the inaccuracy of data on the real number of Roma in Bulgaria. The 2001 census recorded about 350 000 people that self-identified as Roma, representing about five per cent of the population. However, some unofficial estimates range as high as almost three times that number. High-end forecasts place the Roma population as high as 30 to 35 per cent by 2050.
The reason for concern is clear. Roma have the lowest levels of education and literacy in the country, higher incarceration rates and are generally the subject of much suspicion, animosity and discrimination. Tensions are already high between the Roma and mainstream community, and a significant change in the demographic makeup of the country could bring about serious social and political unrest. Furthermore, as the Roma rarely finish secondary school, their higher birthrates only contribute a source of unskilled labour, further reducing the quality of the available workforce. It is thought that it will be difficult for the Roma minority to improve their socio-economic status if birth rates remain so high.
Some experts believe warnings of gypsification are exaggerated, if not outright politically motivated misrepresentations. Recent research shows that while Roma birthrates may remain higher than the national average, there has been a noticeable decline in recent years, particularly in the percentage of births of second and third children.
Furthermore, when the lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality among the Roma community are taken into account, the result of higher birthrates is moderated.
Many analysts may also neglect to take into account the emigration of Roma into their calculations. Though exact numbers are not tracked, there can be little doubt that the Roma make up a large number of the thousands of emigrants leaving Bulgaria every year. In addition, it is well known that Roma will often try to self-identify as Turkish or Bulgarian in order to avoid the discrimination they may face otherwise. What may be less known is that Roma that identifying as other groups tend to adopt the behaviours of that group, which includes having fewer children. Clearly, the gypsification of Bulgaria, while possible, may not be as likely as some attempt to portray it.
Which leaves us...
By nature, demographic projections only represent possibilities. Over the coming decades, there are a number of variables that could change to the benefit of the demographic situation in Bulgaria. In fact, there are already indicators that much of the worst may have passed. The total number of births has seen an increase for several years in a row, and fertility has been rising accordingly, albeit modestly. But despite the recent positive signs, there is still little hope for population growth. The children that were never born over the last decade and a half wouldn’t even be at reproductive or working age yet. The effects of such drastic changes in family patterns are felt much later than they are observed.
Interestingly, even as we discuss the challenges posed by shrinking populations in a select group of countries, and Bulgaria as the leading example, world population continues to grow and is expected to reach nine billion by mid-century, a 30 per cent increase from today.
The unusually warm winter in Bulgaria this year may be a grim testament to global warming and the environmental footprint our vast numbers are making on the planet. In this sense, there may be hidden upsides to population loss. Smaller populations use fewer resources, cause less pollution, create less congestion and afford each person more living space. However, there is little doubt that the current demographic trends present a host of potentially serious problems. The demographic countdown that began in Bulgaria in 1990 continues, and shows no sign of stopping in the coming decades. Many wonder what Bulgaria may be like with almost 45 per cent fewer people than at its height, right before the nine millionth Bulgarian never arrived.
