From recent commentaries on the Bulgarian property market, one could say that whether the market is half saturated or half unutilised, rather like the proverbial glass, is just a question of subjectivity. On one hand, prices are baselessly high and whole developments remain unsold. On the other hand, Bulgaria is obviously still considered a country of great property potential and investors keep on building.

According to the commercial property adviser company Forton International, an associated office of Cushman & Wakefield, only half of Sofia’s offices currently being designed or constructed will be occupied in the next three years.

Forton’s data showed that currently 780 000 sq m of office areas were being constructed in Sofia and a further 740 000 sq m were projected. Bearing in mind that only 160 000 sq m of offices were rented out in 2007, Forton’s prognosis may turn out to be true.

In mid-May, at a seminar on European standards of office projects building, Forton executive director Sergei Koinov said that the company expected about 20 per cent more offices to be rented out this year than the previous year. “This is an optimistic prognosis,” said Koinov, based on Bulgaria’s predicted economic growth of five per cent this year. Tenants could be international companies entering the country. Or they could be firms already in the Bulgarian market but searching for better premises or seeking to expand their activities.

“I believe this data will make some investors change deadlines for their projects according to demand,” Koinov said. If not, a number of empty areas would remain on the market. This could lead to a collapse in prices.

The risks of over-supply and collapsing prices were not the only problems surrounding the local office property market. At the seminar Forton presented the world criteria for office buildings classification. It transpired that none of Bulgaria’s office buildings meet all the criteria. The most difficult criteria to meet were: providing a central location and comfortable access to the building, high-quality management and the provision of sufficient parking places.

Bulgaria’s office property market would most probably split in two, Forton experts said. One part would be high-quality developments, those that meet European standards for quality and ecological and energy-safety regulations. Only around four per cent of these offices would remain unused. Other offices that did not meet these standards would experience difficulty finding tenants.

Forton remains optimistic, however, noting that a number of international companies are expected to open offices in Bulgaria as a result of competitive taxation levels. The property sector would also benefit if Bulgaria managed to attract one or more large global industries. Such was the case of Slovakia, which offered similar conditions to Bulgaria, but managed to boost its economy by attracting vehicle manufacturers. Bulgaria also had the potential to attract a number of industries, Forton said.