The Issue: What does the Savoy Affair mean for Simeon Saxe-Coburg and Bulgaria?
Perhaps it would be a good thing for Bulgaria were former prime minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg to be hustled into court, shackled hand and foot and with a blanket over his head, to face charges of corruption.
It might look good in the next report by the European Commission on Bulgaria’s readiness to join the European Union. In the card game with Romania, it would enable Bulgaria to say: “I see your former prime minister in court, and raise you - with Sofianski and Saxe-Coburg, we have two”.
The only thing is, no one, at the time of writing, has shown any evidence in regard to the accusations against Saxe-Coburg. Let’s clarify that instantly - there currently are no accusations against Saxe-Coburg. If he enters a court any time soon, it may be solely as a plaintiff in a court action for defamation. In his statement to journalists on June 20, he hinted that legal action was possible. He has also briefed lawyers and a public relations agency, in the former case to liaise with Italian investigators and in the latter case to liaise with the media, in an attempt to clear his name.
Biblical allegories have long surrounded Saxe-Coburg. A biography about him was entitled Crown of Thorns. When he returned to Bulgaria after decades of exile during the communist era, and first pitched for the Presidency (but at the time was disqualified because he had not been in the country continuously for five years) and then settled for standing to be Prime Minister, some hailed him as a Messiah. Cynics about him and his long-term detractors have long since claimed he came back to Bulgaria only to lay his hands on property and other benefits. Like a thief in the night, they might say.
His June 20 news conference comments seemed to imply that in private, Saxe-Coburg seems himself as something of a Saint Sebastian, bound and pierced with many arrows. As Saxe-Coburg said, his name has appeared in unflattering contexts, including the media campaign against the contract given to UK consultants Crown Agents to assist the reform of Bulgaria’s customs service, and when reports appeared that he carried a passport issued to him by the Spanish government. In the latter case, it turned out that it had been a document of convenience during his exile in Madrid, but the episode served to emphasise the view of him, a minor former monarch of German and Italian extraction, as anything but Bulgarian.
His detractors have seized with alacrity the apparent opportunity created by the Savoy affair, in which Italy’s Victor Emmanuel and business person Pierpaolo Cerani are alleged to have been involved in various dubious business activities.
The Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria, led by former prime minister Ivan Kostov, reacted with their customary one-note performance, which these days usually involves a call on the person at the centre of any controversy to resign. The only reaction to this call on the part of Saxe-Coburg’s party, the National Movement Simeon II, was to allege that the DSB somehow had a hand in the allegations being published, a somewhat far-fetched claim. Unless you are prepared to accept those media reports, also emanating from the anti-Saxe-Coburg camp, that during the time that Kostov was prime minister, those around him built up all sorts of connections in Italy.
Other media reports have been similarly slanted. One Bulgarian-language newspaper devoted a report to the supposed involvement of Saxe-Coburg and Victor Emmanuel and others with one Spas Roussev. Roussev, according to the reports, acted as some sort of go-between in bringing to Bulgaria Italian business interests that wanted to look into investing in Bulgaria’s telecommunications sector. Perhaps these reports establish some sort of a connection. But however Roussev’s involvement is dressed up, a careful reading of the media reports will fail to come up with any evidence of a possible crime. Generally, all concerned welcome the bringing together of foreign investors and Government figures to discuss putting money into Bulgaria. Again, there was a failure to show that anyone had put money into Saxe-Coburg, or his party.
Another matter of interest were the media reports claiming that Victor Emmanuel had a connection to an alleged organised crime group in which slain controversial Bulgarian business person Ivan “The Doctor” Todorov also had been involved. Reportedly, Italian prosecutors were looking into supposed connections with then-members of the Saxe-Coburg cabinet, said to have been photographed on a yacht three years ago with Todorov.
So there is plenty of material circulating to keep conspiracy buffs happy, and to supply those who are not worried about the possible legal implications of what they post on the internet. In the past week, one participant in a forum commented, presumably on the basis of the first round of media reports, that it all went to show that Saxe-Coburg was Bulgaria’s biggest mafia figure. Apart from such outright defamation, a number of commentators also resorted to taking the Saxe-Coburg and Savoy Show as evidence that Bulgaria was unfit for EU membership. Ironically but not surprisingly (considering that there appear to be substantive allegations against Victor Emmanuel and Cerani but none against Saxe-Coburg) no one appears to have suggested that Italy is similarly unfit to be a member of the EU.
What does the Savoy Affair mean for Saxe-Coburg? It may well change little. His few remaining admirers (his popularity in the polls plunged throughout his term as prime minister) will continue to speak of his polish, his grace and his intelligence. His detractors will continue to allege, among other things, that he came to Bulgaria only to grab acres of forest and some other worthwhile items to real estate to pass on in turn to his several children (given, after all, that he has no throne to bequeath).
Will he stand as a presidential candidate, or will he finally go back full-time to Spain, or will he first do the former and then the latter? Saxe-Coburg, say those close to him, is a great strategic thinker - although, by the by, if this is true it does not explain his party’s continuing dismal performance in elections. He cannot have failed to notice that current polls tend to award him about two per cent of the vote were a presidential election to be held now. Without him, his party barely manages five per cent.
The Savoy Affair, unsubstantiated “allegations” or none, damnation by association and all, and with all subsequent smearing and spin-doctoring that will come into play, does not sound the death knell of Saxe-Coburg’s political career. That is because this “career” is, in any case, now only barely clinging to life.
