The positioning for the upcoming elections in the autumn is already in full swing. One of the unfolding dramas is whether the mayor of Sofia, Boiko Borissov, will ultimately succumb to popular demand and affection by joining the race as the hidden favourite. Another drama concerns the prospects for the right-of-the-centre political forces to find the political meaning of the phrase “right-of-the-centre” in their (thus far) unsuccessful attempt to nominate a common candidate, be that man or woman, well-known person or hardly-recognisable one, potential winner or respectable loser.
The drama in the socialist camp is of a different character. There the candidate has been already selected - current President Georgi Purvanov. The question, however, is what kind of office is he going to compete for? Although the constitution mentions something regarding this issue, its provisions are highly ambiguous and open-textured. To start with, last time President Purvanov won his office as the challenger against the status quo. This time he seems to be the status quo. Further, last time his party was the major opposition to the governing parties in parliament, hence Purvanov won his office by criticising the policies of the ruling coalition, and pushing for an alternative to the government in office. He even managed to label himself a “social president”, creating the impression that the governmental alternative he was advocating would live up to an ideal of social justice. Now, all of this rhetoric has lost its gloss, and few natives will exchange their electoral gold for it.
In short, two offices - the office of the “president-leader-of-the-opposition”, and “the social president” - are no longer available for Purvanov. Instead, there are two other offices that he might be willing to consider, although none of them actually is as prestigious and attractive as the above two:
The Godfather of the Ruling Coalition
Purvanov was very instrumental in the forming of the currently ruling coalition - this was probably his greatest achievement as a president. Unfortunately, the credit received from the public for saving Bulgaria from a governmental crisis in a decisive moment of its history seems to have been exhausted. Moreover, the rather messy and unco-ordinated style of the coalition government, the lack of strong leadership by PM Stanishev, and the difficulties in the negotiations with the EU, have all incurred substantial negatives for Purvanov in the Godfather guise. There are at least two key difficulties in trying to sell this Godfather image to the people. First, Purvanov has not convinced the public that he has real control over the coalition government. This government has proven to be comprised of disparate, almost autonomously-run ministries. As mentioned above, the figure of the PM is very weak, while the procedures of decision-making in the so-called Triumvirate (Coalition Council) are non-transparent. Ministries of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms have often been accused of being run in a “feudal” manner, reflecting the level of party control and independence from the PM that they enjoy. But the more troubling cases are actually the ministers of the BSP. The latest scandals with the files of the communist secret services showed that Minister Petkov is playing on his own, not co-ordinating his actions with Purvanov and the BSP, let alone letting Purvanov control these actions. Apart from the long-term consequences, which the opening of the files might have on Bulgarian politics, the resurfacing of the issue made Purvanov extremely vulnerable. The alleged revelation of his file as agent “Gotze” will definitely affect his chances for the presidency; it is a blow to the image of a European social-democrat that he wants to project to the public. Further, the controversial policies of the Health Minister, the rising energy prices and the response of the state to them, proved to be areas with crucial importance for the social welfare of the population over which Purvanov has virtually no control. All of these make the office of the Godfather substantively empty.
Secondly, the coalition government is going to face a tough challenge upon the eventual Bulgarian accession to Europe in 2007. As many have observed, it will lose its raison d’etre: the successful completion of the accession project. From this it does not follow that the coalition government will immediately cease to exist - actually, many social institutions, which have lost their meaning, continue their existence, sometimes indefinitely. But, this situation will be definitely embarrassing for a president having chosen to be a guardian and a god father of a meaningless institution.
The Mayor of Bulgaria
Purvanov has an alternative option: to run as an independent candidate supported by the BSP, trying to keep a distance from the governing coalition, and trying to present himself as a separate, and potentially valuable centre of power. What could this centre of power in principle do? Well, for instance, it might improve the fight against corruption and crime by: a) appointing a former adviser - Boris Velchev - as Prosecutor-General; b) initiating the creation of an independent agency to fight corruption; c) initiating the disclosure of the assets of politicians by setting an example, etc. Further, the president, as an independent centre of power, may take care of difficult issues as finding a place for a waste-disposal site for Sofia. Indeed, this is not a very dignifying subject for a presidential campaign, but it might work with the people, showing them that the presidential institution is not pointless, but could be put to some practical use.
Not surprisingly, both of these areas - control of crime and corruption and garbage management - are more suitable not for high-flying politicians, but for administrators, secretaries of the Ministry of Interior, and of, yes - mayors. Turning the presidency into a national mayoral office might be actually a successful move for Purvanov. Such an office does not seem as empty of content as the Godfather one. The trouble is that here Purvanov enters the territory of the best candidate for the Mayor of Bulgaria, however - the undisputed popular favourite Borissov. In any event, the contest might be really interesting and entertaining.
The Presidency and its uses
At the current moment, the presidential election in the autumn seems to be meaningful only to the extent it helps the crystallisation of the party system in the country. One of the main questions is going to be about the future of the right-wing parties: which of them still has any political potential? A second question concerns the faith of the liberal centre and NDSV in particular: the movement is also in danger of political annihilation. A third question relates to the emergence and political identity of another party - GERB - attracting significant popular support. Purvanov’s election to the presidential office will not answer meaningfully any of these questions - it will perpetuate one fragile and troubled status quo, which is breeding significant alienation of the people from politics. In the absence of a more valuable option, the people might settle either for the Godfather or the Mayor of Bulgaria offices, but they will do this with an increasing doubt in the point of having a directly elected president.
