Theories abound as to the reasons for the February 22 murder of Ivan “The Doctor” Todorov.

The assassination of Todorov, who died after being hit by a fusillade of bullets while travelling in his luxury vehicle in the centre of Sofia, has revived the public debate about the state and level of organised crime in Bulgaria.

The murder ended four months of relative calm for both Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev and Interior Minister Roumen Petkov on the question of organised crime.

In October 2005, top banker Emil Kyulev was shot dead in his car in Sofia during rush hour while on his way to work.

Although public murders are nothing new in Bulgaria, Kyulev’s death shocked the country because it was unexpected and Kyulev was not publicly considered part of the underworld.

Following Kyulev’s murder, Petkov launched Operation Respect, aimed at showing people that police were on the alert to defend the public from gangsters.

Four months on, Kyulev’s murder is still under investigation. Todorov’s murder  appears to show that organised crime in Bulgaria continues to play by its own rules, despite the efforts by Petkov and others in law enforcement.

However, Kyulev and Todorov’s murders differ in seveal ways.

The only thing that they appear to have in common is that both murders took place in daylight while the victims were travelling in their cars in the centre of Sofia.

A key difference has been in public reaction. Kyulev’s death provoked shock; while Todorov’s death was accepted by the public was nothing more than the breaking news of the day. To explain this, a detailed look at Todorov’s life is needed.

Todorov, who was 42, was born in the small town of Dimitrovgrad in central Bulgaria.

In the early 1990s, Todorov studied at the veterinary school in Stara Zagora, hence his nickname “The Doctor”.

His controversial business career started in Stara Zagora. In 1993, Todorov started work at the duty-free zone at the Svilengrad border checkpoint, together with Filip “Fatik” Naidenov.

According to Bulgarian-language media reports, Naidenov controlled the smuggling channels organised by the former communist regime.

In 1996, Todorov started a very profitable company dealing in the export and import of cigarettes.

Todorov obviously did well, because a year later he had the opportunity to present to customs authorities documents from Swiss banks showing that his account held $2 million, guaranteeing the transit of his goods through Bulgaria.

Todorov’s company, Amigos 3, operated in almost every Balkan country, as well as in Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia. Preferred trade partners were companies from Serbia, Macedonia and Kosovo. Todorov himself said in several interviews that his activity in the Balkans was completely legal. However he was suspected of customs fraud, in particular in connection with exports of cigarettes to Western Europe and the UK.

Up till 2003, everything appeared to be going well for Todorov. In that year, a bomb went off in his car in Tsarigradsko Shose Boulevard. Todorov survived the attack, but his relatively low profile evaporated with the blast.

The reason was a set of photos reportedly found in his blown-up Mercedes by police. The photos purportedly showed Todorov, then-finance Minister Milen Velchev and then-transport Minister Plamen Petrov, playing cards together on a yacht in Monaco.

Also reported to have been found in the car by police was a file containing secret information about an investigation launched against Todorov by Bulgarian authorities. The two ministers denied knowing Todorov but the question remained open.

After this incident, Todorov was alleged by the Bulgarian-language media to be the biggest smuggler in the Balkans, something that he consistently denied.

Apparently reacting to the public’s views, police made a series of accusations against Todorov, starting with smuggling and ending with money laundering.

He was involved in several court cases, either as the accused or as a witness, and was sentenced to five years imprisonment for kidnapping and racketeering.

However, The Supreme Cassation Court returned the case for retrial and Todorov remained out of prison.

Todorov’s every appearance in court was national news. But in time, the media lost interest and Todorov’s public profile receded.

In November 2005, as part of Operation Respect, police arrested brothers Krassimir and Nikolai Marinovi, known as “the big and the little Margins”.

The brothers are alleged to be notorious figures in Bulgaria’s underworld and their arrest was a highlight of Operation Respect. They were alleged to have conspired to murder Todorov and two other people - bringing Todorov’s name back into the news. The arrest of “The Margin” brothers also appears to have given Todorov a false sense of confidence. This may be why he was not always accompanied by armed guards, and often drove his car by himself. His murder on February 22 showed that he had made a fatal mistake.

Immediately after his murder, theories flooded the air. Who would benefit from his death and who would be the next in line?

Petkov offered the same theory that he had done with Kyulev’s murder.

On February 24, Petkov attended the annual analysis of the performance of the National Investigation Service.

“One gets the impression that certain circles are interested in seeing this type of crime committed at moments important for Bulgaria,” Petkov said. Todorov’s murder coincided with the European Union peer review of the Interior Ministry’s activity.

“There definitely is a system in the murders,” Petkov said, noting that the murder of Kyulev took place on the day when the European Commission published its report on Bulgaria.

The next theory was that “The Margin” brothers had ordered the murder from prison, wanting to take his place in the cigarette smuggling business.

On February 26, Angel Alexandrov, the head of the National Investigation Service, told Bulgarian National Radio that this theory “could not be ruled out”. Communication from prison was not impossible for the brothers, Alexandrov said.

An international link was also floated in the media. Todorov was linked with the son of former Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milosevic, Marko Milosevic.

Bulgarian-language media speculated that Milosevic was Todorov’s main partner in Serbia. On February 27, Plamen Minev, a former head of the Customs Agency, told private channel bTV that it was highly probable that someone from abroad had ordered Todorov’s murder.

“Todorov, as someone who had controlled the smuggling channels in the Balkans, might have gathered too much information, which might have cost him his life,” Minev said.

One thing is certain, that with Todorov’s death and “The Margin” brothers in custody, new players will try to take their position in the underworld of Bulgaria. This will mean more trouble for Petkov in the year when everyone expects Bulgaria to overcome shortcomings towards EU accession. The country is scheduled to join the EU on January 1 2007 but is facing severe criticism for not handling organised crime - a factor that, according to some EU officials, might lead to postponement of Bulgaria’s EU accession by one year.