Serbian prime minister Vojislav Kostunica delivered a televised warning on February 14 2008 against the impending secession of Kosovo, reiterating Serbia would never recognise Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, Reuters news agency reported.
Kosovo is expected to declare independence by February 18 at the latest, nearly nine years after NATO came to rescue the Albanian majority from attempted ethnic cleansing and handed the territory’s administration to the UN. Influential Western countries have voiced their support the province’s independence, whereas Serbia and Russia oppose it and there are several potential scenarios for developments once Kosovo declares independence.
The US, Britain, Germany, France and Italy are set to recognise Kosovo immediately, with the majority of EU member states expected to follow suit shortly, but countries from the bloc – Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Spain – have said they would not.
The decision of the EU to station a 2 000-strong policing and administrative mission enters into force midnight, on Saturday. The mission will take over UN functions within a four-month transition period. Serbia would most probably respond by calling off its ambassadors in countries to have recognised Kosovo, but was unlikely to cut diplomatic relations altogether.
Kosovo would have its new flag, symbols and a national hymn. It has already announced plans for official celebrations in two weeks' time, which would held in the presence of heads of state and international representatives.
Another scenario sees Serbia calling on Kosovo Serbs to boycott Kosovo’s secession. Some 120 000 Serbs live in the province and they could defy the secession of the region with the backing of Belgrade. According to reports of local media, the Serb-dominated northern part of the province would form split and set up its own parliament before the declaration of independence.
Serbia would then strengthen the network of parallel structures that are already in place in Kosovo by offering administrative, academic and health services to the Serb minority and cementing the de-facto secession of the areas heavily populated by Serbs. No big-bang refugee wave would be likely to occur in this case.
Under a third scenario, Serbia would actively pursue counter-measures against the new state. The injunctions might include border closure, a trade embargo and non-recognition of Kosovar passports. Serbia may also halt supplies of electricity and water, as well as phone and Internet services. Military intervention, however, was highly unlikely.
Serbia faces a political crisis, according to yet another possible scenario. The weak ruling coalition in Serbia would crumble over internal differences on the position the country should adopt with regard to Kosovo. The nationalist premier Vojislav Kostunica has already made known his contempt for EU integration, whereas the Democratic Party of pro-EU president Boris Tadic favours a more moderate approach. Snap elections would follow, most likely at some point in May, which would prove yet another referendum for Serbia’s choice between the East and the West, but the ultra-nationalist Serbian radical party would most probably re-affirm itself as the largest political party in the country.
