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Karamanlis makes it again
09:00 Mon 24 Sep 2007 - Elena Koinova
 

Greek voters gave the thumbs up to New Democracy (ND), the Greek right-leaning party that has been running the country since 2004.

Although with a slimmer majority than in the previous election, the party of current prime minister Costas Karamanlis snatched another victory from its arch rival, the socialist PASOK. The major conclusion, however, is the two main parties are on the losing side.

The reasons, according to political analysts, are a mosaic of ideological wear-out and irresponsiveness to topical problems.

At the September 16 general elections, ND won 41.9 per cent voter support or 152 seats in parliament, a decrease of 13 seats compared with previous elections. The representation of PASOK in parliament, in turn, has thinned by 15 to 102 seats.

Even though ND and PASOK are losing ground, the implications are diametrically different. While ND’s Karamanlis is the first conservative prime minister to be victorious in two consecutive elections, George Papandreou, leader of PASOK, is the first socialist leader to come second two times running. All the more, the win of 38.1 per cent of the votes is PASOK’s worst result since 1977. This outcome, according to political observers, is set to proffer serious shake-ups within the party. The first sign of looming problems is the pressure to resign on PASOK’s existing leader, George Papandreou. Local media see incumbent culture minister Evangelos Vanizelos as the most probable replacement for the son of PASOK’s founder, Andreas Papandreou.

Ebbing support has also been attributed to the growing fatigue with the little-changing political messages of both political parties in the country. Commentators say, ND and PASOK have been tossing political leadership for the past 50 years, have experienced a confluence of messages, which has diluted their political images in the eyes of the electorate. Both parties have long been attuning their political manifestos to the main policies of the European Union.

Observers also cite the government’s inept and sluggish response to recent wildfires as the more immediate and pressing reason for ND’s lower voter support.

Regardless whether the outflow has been because of ideological or topical reasons, big changes to the country’s political landscape might well be knocking on the country’s door, political observers note. One harbinger of change occurred already on September 16.

LAOS is the first far-right party to enter parliament in decades. It served a huge surprise as in previous campaigns it has been associated with a neo-Nazi group called Golden Dawn, which for its part is linked to attacks against immigrants and individuals of leftist political inclination.

The party is said to have scooped the support of the discontent with the government’s sluggish response to the wildfires and with growing immigration, whose numbers took on a steep turn especially since the expansion of the European Union to Central and Eastern Europe. With its 3.8 per cent support, LAOS won 10 seats in parliament.

Other parties to pass the three per cent threshold were the communist party KKE (8.1 per cent and 22 seats, up 10) and radical leftist party Syriza (five per cent and 14 seats, up seven).

Even though Karamanlis won a second mandate, he will be facing a tough challenge as he his party has a thin majority and a host of painful and unpopular reforms to master. The fires meant that Karamanlis’ wish to scoop wider parliamentary backing were reduced to ashes, as many swing voters made a last-minute retreat over discontent with the government’s response.

Many a voter turned ND down over deteriorating macro-economic parameters such as the soaring budget gap and trade deficit.

With the new political map at hand, Karamanlis has been swift to seek to build a larger majority by announcing radical measures fresh out of elections.

To stave off criticisms and lure some opposition deputies to ND’s side over the longer term, Karamanlis immediately announced plans to trim the size of his cabinet. According to early statements, changes will see the merger of several ministries and the probable creation of a new one.

Namely, the ministry of public order will enter into the structure of the ministry of interior affairs. In addition, the ministry in charge of the Aegean Sea and the islands is set to merge with the ministry of commercial fleet, whereas the chief secretariat, the authority in charge of social security instalments, is due to be integrated into the health ministry. Furthermore, the ministry of transport is expected to become part of the environment, public works and governmental construction ministry. The environmental authorities are likely to form an individual ministry, which is to also be in charge of combating natural disasters.

It was expected that the new structural composition of the Greek cabinet and the names of new ministers would be announced before September 19. Karamanlis said the new cabinet would contain “new blood”.

Structural changes apart, Karamanlis and his party will have several important economic problems to solve. Most of them are said to be costly and likely to aggravate the country’s already worryingly poor macro-economic parameters.

Much of the economic reforms will seek to straighten the distorted trade balance as the euro has reached new highs and the country’s population has been plunging into an ever-growing loan burden.

The first problem will be the completion of the so-called “mini-Marshall” plan. This set of measures aims at the country’s quick recovery from the summer’s fires that caused almost 1.5 billion euro in losses. Among the main beneficiaries of the programme is Peloponnese.

The second are pension and health sector reforms. Each of the reforms is estimated to need billions of euro in financing. The pension system has placed the state deep into the red with seven billion euro in state debt toward the country’s pension funds. The sum amounted to 5.6 billion euro as of December last year.

Expenses in the health sector, on the other hand, have soared to an extent that has seen governmental expenditures on the social security system run out of control.

The re-elected prime minister pledged to continue with the process of privatisation of large state-run enterprises to spearhead liberalisation of a number of sectors and stimulate competition.

In light of these expenses, the government will hardly find spare resources to go forward with erasing the other social, educational and technological problems, as featured in ND’s electoral manifesto.

With as many problems ahead, Karamanlis’s mandate will be a tough call.

 
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