The right-wing parties that are the successors to the once-mighty Union of Democratic Forces may be said to be in their seventh lean year.

In June 2001, the first government to serve a full term after the fall of communism, that of the UDF under the leadership of Ivan Kostov, was voted out of power in favour of Simeon Saxe-Coburg and the National Movement Simeon II. Kostov resigned as UDF leader, and a battle to succeed him, fought between former foreign minister Nadezhda Mihailova and (no relation) Ekaterina Mihailova saw Nadezhda Mihailova emerge victorious. But after matters deteriorated over the next few years under her leadership, including the humiliation of defeat as a candidate in the 2003 mayoral elections in Sofia, the leadership eventually passed to former president Petar Stoyanov. Stoyanov, who as president and as a senior UDF figure had engaged in a very public snake-and-mongoose act with Kostov, pledged to work for right-wing unity. When he failed, the leadership passed in 2007 to Plamen Yuroukov, who inherited a situation even worse than the rout of 2001. By last year, the hard-core nationalist territory had been taken by Ataka, whatever its latter-day steady implosion. The Boiko Borissov phenomenon, expressed through his party the Citizens for the European Development (known by its Bulgarian abbreviation, GERB) had emerged as a force identifying itself as right wing, while also capable for taking away votes from the Bulgarian Socialist Party. Amid the battlefield of bickering that was the right-wing spectrum, Kostov had set up his Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB), with lieutenants drawn mainly from the old UDF, including Ekaterina Mihailova.

Given that in the past years, every kite flown about right-wing unity had plummeted headlong into the bitter earth, there was some skepticism when Yuroukov and Kostov agreed that the UDF and the DSB would back a single candidate in the 2007 mayoral elections in Sofia, Martin Zaimov. There had been earlier occasions when there had been “agreements” about co-operation, and not everyone believed that the unity would continue all the way to voting day. But it did, and Zaimov’s credible showing even in the face of the Borissov juggernaut was a simple lesson, if one was needed, that the inheritors of Bulgaria’s post-communist right-wing tradition would be stronger together than apart.

But it is no longer a simple matter of rebuilding the UDF. There are other forces at play now, the major force of Borissov’s GERB, the somewhat lesser factor of the group of MPs that has styled itself Bulgarian New Democracy (BND) after quitting Saxe-Coburg’s party. With Saxe-Coburg’s party identifying itself as liberal, the identity of BND is not yet clear, apart from the fact that some of its members have alleged that the party they quit had abandoned liberal values; moreover, all the BND group really seems to have in common is its dissent. However, it currently constitutes the largest single opposition group in Parliament and as such has to be taken account of, even though every trend evidenced in the European Parliament and municipal elections in 2007 seems to suggest that BND will be swept from sight in 2009, along with some other forces now in Parliament.

For all the might he commands, Borissov has a strong motive to be talking to various right-wing groups and to be attempting to build unity, even if this really means unity under his leadership (a matter of ego that has been a common factor in all previous attempts at welding the right-wing). His short-term goal is to attempt to precipitate elections ahead of term, even if this is a scenario that few see as realistic. His longer-term goal is to have the option of ruling with a right-wing coalition after elections 2009. After those elections, Borissov could face a tricky choice: if his party and the BSP emerge as the largest forces, he could build a numerically strong coalition but be at risk for choosing to govern in coalition with a political force that he has devoted much energy to demonising. Being able to build a right-wing governing coalition could suit him well, even though it could mean facing a numerically relatively strong opposition in the form of the BSP.

All of this meant January 2008 was an unusually busy month for talks among right-wing players. On January 11, Borissov and Yuroukov, accompanied by their respective top party officials, met for talks, on issues ranging from a “new conservatism”, a new electoral system and even one of Borissov’s pet subjects, the future of Kremikovtzi steelworks. From the meeting, it emerged that GERB and the UDF would contest future parliamentary elections separately, but as had been said in December, would be open to governing in coalition. For Yuroukov, there was good news of a strength that was symbolic rather than significant, that the small Union of Free Democrats (founded by former Sofia mayor Stefan Sofiyanski, another who quit the UDF after the 2001 defeat) and Evgenii Bakurdjiev’s Radicals Union had said that they were prepared to join today’s UDF. Not quite the basis of a mass movement, but better than the prospect of another election of fighting against split voting. Mid-January saw some minor cause for concern for Borissov, given media reports that some MPs who had aligned themselves to GERB had become disillusioned and reportedly were planning to found in February a “United European Party”.

Another possible cause for concern (not much concern, though) for those who aspire to right-wing unity is that three small right-wing parties held talks in mid-January on an alliance outside the UDF. The parties were nationalists Gergyovden, the National Agrarian Union and Novoto Vreme, the last-mentioned being a group that quit Saxe-Coburg’s party before the 2005 elections and which voters decided not to return to Parliament. The DSB was invited to the meeting, but declined to attend. This, along with the Zaimov exercise in 2007, could indicate that possible further UDF-DSB co-operation should not automatically be written off.

Also in play in the rounds of meetings were GERB and BND. The two met on February 1, an event described by BND’s Nikolai Svinarov as “the biggest opposition party met the biggest opposition group in Parliament”.

Speaking to Bulgarian newspaper Standart, Svinarov said: “We have many common ideas and goals we can put to practice through a modern centre-right government after the next elections. It is important that GERB does not end up in the next Parliament only in the company of BSP, MRF and who-knows-who-else. It is important to also have rightist parties to implement a centre-right government,” Svinarov said.

BND MP Atanas Shterev said in Bulgarian-language daily Trud on February 7: “With GERB we will govern this country for at least two terms.” Shterev said that BND professed 12 ideological values associated with the right wing of the political spectrum. “We want to unite with everybody guided by these values,” Shterev said.

Meanwhile, the BND let it be known that it was not keen on ahead-of-term parliamentary elections, but proposed the founding of a new right-wing union, which Borissov’s GERB, Kostov’s DSB and the UDF would be welcome to join. Lydia Shouleva, who was economy minister in the Saxe-Coburg administration but became a founding member of BND, told journalists on January 23 that the BND’s proposed union could lay the foundations to make the right-wing the leading power in Bulgaria. The initial UDF reaction was reserved, indicating only that it would be prepared to co-operate with the BND where they had interests in common. After January 24 talks, Yuroukov told a joint news conference that the BND and UDF had a “similarity of ideas”.

The notion of a “similarity of ideas”, however, has been a well-worn theme in all talks in the past six years about rebuilding right-wing unity. Whether this notion can be made meaningful in the months ahead, long before what is sure to be a bitterly-fought election in 2009, could shape the options for a future government, and whether the right-wing could look forward to a new era of “fat years”.