The press
All the major Bulgarian-language newspapers concentrated their comments on the first round of the elections, not on winners and losers, but on an event that threatens to undermine Bulgarian democracy in its basic foundations: the right to vote freely. Two of the most popular dailies Dnevnik and 24 Chassa commented on the numerous TV reports about people being offered money in exchange for their votes, usually by big men in dark clothes driving black SUVs. Such an approach is by no means something new to Bulgarian politics but these elections scored a record high level of such cases. In an editorial on October 29, Dnevnik asked in its headline “Is this our democracy?” The newspaper referred not simply to the fact of people trying and “buying the vote of others” but the fact that there were few official complaints. “No complaints – no investigation,” Dnevnik said. According to Dnevnik, it was no longer a question of elections in Bulgaria but rather a trade in votes. “What happened on the elections raises the question whether definitions such as politics and democracy should be used at all in Bulgaria any more.”

In its October 30 editorial comment, Dnevnik continued the elections theme. This time, the headline was “Appointed democracy”. According to the newspaper, the vacuum created by the extremely low turnout had been filled by the trade in votes which could leave to a situation when only people who had been paid would turn up at polling stations. “Since we already have an ‘appointed’ business environment, an ‘appointed’ independent judicial system and an ‘appointed’ non-governmental sector, there is no reason why we could not have ‘appointed” voters,’ Dnevnik said. The newspaper said that such voters should be taxed on these incomes, “of course at a flat tax rate of 10 per cent”.

On October 29, 24 Chassa had a similar reaction. “The big sell out” was the headline of the newspaper’s editorial comment. “One of the surprises of these elections was the large number of reports of buying votes,” 24 Chassa said. According to the editorial, the rate for buying a vote had gone up to 100 leva at places. “If we count what Vesselin Mareshki did in Varna, giving discounts to pensioners in his pharmacies, we can rightfully conclude that the moral of these elections is that money is more attractive than political parties and platforms.”

The pundits
Most political scientists and sociologists referred in their comments on the elections to the performance of Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov’s party Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (abbreviated as GERB in Bulgarian), set up less than a year ago.

GERB was described as a national phenomenon by social analysts participating in round-table talks on October 30. The discussion was organised by the Ivan Hadjiiski Institute of National Values and Structures in Sofia. According to Gallup’s Andrei Raichev, after the first round, GERB proved to be a serious political force. He attributed its success to the mobilisation of a new political elite from within the circles of the new Bulgarian bourgeoisie. Raichev said that after the October 28 elections there were two big political forces in this country: the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and GERB. This marked the end to the hitherto polar party model and marked the beginning of a new centre-centre model, Raichev said.

“GERB is the instrument by which society punished the incumbents,” said Kolyo Kolev of the Mediana polling agency. “Yet, this formation is still a proto-party,” he said.

MBMD’s Mira Yanova said that civil and business associations drew a high number of votes at the first round.

Peter-Emil Mitev, director of the Ivan Hadjiiski Institute, said: “Post-transition parties, such as GERB and Ataka, have been attracting an increasingly higher number of votes while the transition parties, BSP and the Union of Democratic Forces, as well as the parties of the intermediary period, such as the National Movement for Stability and Progress, have been losing support.”

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms has been strengthening its influence, according to the participants in the discussion. According to Central Electoral Commission figures, the turnout was 42.5 per cent which was quite normal for municipal elections, Yulii Pavlov of the Centre for Analyses and Marketing said.

The analysis of the Ivan Hadjiiski Institute was that there were no preconditions for early general elections in this country now.

Speaking to Focus news agency, political scientist Dimitar Avramov highlighted the professionalism of polling agencies. According to him, two main trends were outlined at the elections. The first was that pollsters had read peoples’ moods accurately. “The results in Sofia, Plovdiv, and Varna were expected, and in that context it seems attitudes were stable. What happened in a great number of municipalities was not a result of some kind of phenomenon. There are long-lasting trends in society and the development of the different parties. A new type of a political space is gaining shape in Bulgaria. This is the direct representation of business in the municipalities, or the so-called business tickets, or with parties formed by business structures,” Avramov said.

The new business representation was getting formed because in many municipalities business circles were discontented with the way public and municipal institutions worked.

According to Gallup’s Kuncho Stoychev, Bulgaria now had two big parties – the BSP and GERB. “Each of them controls an influence of some 25 per cent nation-wide,” Stoychev told commercial TV channel bTV on October 28. Stoichev said the MRF platform for the elections seemed to have “diluted” the ethnic nature of the party. In another trend, a fourth major political force had emerged: the various parties and associations of business representatives, he said. Stoychev’s opinion was supported by Yurii Aslanov, a sociologist closely affiliated with the BSP. A ruling coalition will be inevitable at the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria in 2009, Aslanov told a news conference on October 29. “There are four political powers that have the potential to aim to do relatively well in the next parliamentary elections. The BSP and GERB: both parties have almost equal positions. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms is expanding its influence. The fourth is the ultra-nationalist Ataka party,” Aslanov said.

“The results in Sofia show that a part of the BSP electorate voted for Borissov and GERB,” Mitev told Darik Radio on October 29. “The BSP’s own mayoral candidate in Sofia, Brigo Asparouhov, got fewer votes that the BSP ticket for municipal councillors,” he noted.

According to Mitev, Borissov’s victory in Sofia was not an indicator of a dramatic change in the political situation, but it had strong implications nonetheless.

“The more important fact is that GERB becomes the dominating force in the Sofia City Council. Borissov now will enjoy complete support in the council, but it doubles his responsibility because he would not be able to say somebody is standing in his way,” Mitev said.

The second place won by right-winger Martin Zaimov was a sign that a major step had been taken towards the unification of the right-wing parties.

Raichev, on the other hand, said that Zaimov’s result was more of a sign of an end to the quarrels among right-wing parties than a confirmation of the efficiency of the unification model. Speaking on Darik, Raichev said the BSP had won confirmation that its right-wing policy was acceptable for voters. Political scientist Antoni Todorov told commercial national Nova Televisia that there was more commercial advertising in this campaign than politics. How the candidates said this or that mattered more than what they really said, Todorov said.