Serbian leaders in Kosovo predict unrest may erupt in the mainly Serbian north of the region if Kosovo is granted some form of independence.

Warnings came shortly before the UN special envoy, Finnish diplomat Martti Ahtisaari, was due to visit Belgrade and Pristina on February 2 to present his proposals on the territory’s final status.

According to unofficial reports, his document does not mention the word independence or refer to Serbia’s sovereignty.

But many Serbs fear the proposals will lead to some form of independence for the province even if the terminology is disguised.

They say if Ahtisaari’s proposal paves the way to independence through a UN Security Council Resolution or through a unilateral declaration of sovereignty in Pristina, northern Kosovo will be the centre of unrest.

Kosovo Albanians and Serbs have high expectations of Ahtisaari’s proposal, which was presented on February 2. Sources say that while the plan does not mention the word independence, which will anger Albanians, Belgrade will lose sovereignty over the province, angering the Serbs.

Kosovo will have its own constitution and symbols: a flag and an anthem. The issue of Mitrovica’s division will be solved by forming two separate municipalities as the Kosovo Serbs demanded. Co-operation between northern and southern Mitrovica will be maintained by means of a joint board.

The UN envoy will grant other mainly Serbian municipalities special powers over cultural and religious matters. Albanian and Serbian will be the official languages all over Kosovo.

Oliver Ivanovic, leader of the Serbian list for Kosovo and Metohija, said the Serbian-populated north might even decide to secede and join Serbia.

“There might be a chance that northern Kosovo secedes following an unfavourable decision (on final status),” Ivanovic told Balkan Insight, adding that he would be against it.

Nebojsa Jovic, deputy president of the Serbian National Council in northern Kosovo, also said secession was an option. “Cutting of relations between northern Kosovo and the rest of Kosovo is possible,” Jovic told Balkan Insight.

“There will be mass protests here if Kosovo is to be declared independent,” said a source from northern Mitrovica. “No one here wants Pristina as a capital.

“Thousands would take to the streets and set up barricades, stopping the movement of any vehicles belonging to international or local police as well as the civilian administration.”

Bane Krstic, a journalist from northern Mitrovica, agreed. “Serbs would never accept an independent Kosovo regardless of whether self-rule was passed through a UN resolution or through bilateral agreement,” he said.

Krstic pointed out that the Serbian government of Vojislav Kostunica had consistently assured local citizens that Kosovo’s independence was out of the question.

Apart from the danger of a military confrontation with Kosovo Albanians, local Serbian politicians admit secession would be a costly affair. It might benefit the northern part of Kosovo where about 40 000 Serbs live, but it would gravely jeopardise the future of another 80 000 Serbs living in enclaves south of the river Ibar.

Ivanovic said the secession of the north would seal the fate of the Serbs in the south who might be deported or reduced to living in dire conditions.

“Northern Kosovo is not so important when you take into account that more than two-thirds of the Serbian population lives in the south of Kosovo,” said Ivanovic, noting that all major Serbian cultural and economic assets were also located there.
In addition, Ivanovic went on, the concentration of Albanian and Serbian extremists along the river Ibar border meant an armed conflict could not be ruled out.
Goran Bogdanovic, head of the Democratic Party in Kosovo and a member of Serbia’s negotiating team on the region, agreed that a territorial division of Kosovo could jeopardise Serbian interests.

“The division of Kosovo is totally unacceptable to us,” said Bogdanovic, adding that it would be impractical without the consent of the international community. “Serbs living in the south of Kosovo would lose everything while Serbs in the north would not gain much.”

“However this is Kosovo and everything is possible,” Bogdanovic said.

While hard-line nationalists like Ljubomir Kragovic, president of Serbian Radical Party in Kosovo, say Serbs must make a pledge to recover the whole of Kosovo if the international community permits some form of statehood, some local Serbian analysts admit Ahtisaari’s proposal is likely only to restate the existing reality.

“The situation in the field is that Serbia has not had sovereignty over Kosovo for seven years now,” said Krstic, adding that that many measures had been taken since then to erode Serbian authority over the entity.

In the meantime, locals in northern Mitrovica live from day to day, trying not to dwell on their worries for the future.

“I fear the Albanians, as I wouldn’t feel comfortable living in an Albanian Kosovo,” said Zivana Kompirovic, a northern Mitrovica local.

She would not accept an independent Kosovo but would not leave Kosovo, either. “I didn’t leave when it was much worse, so I certainly won’t leave now, unless I am chased out with a rifle,” she said.

But others have taken out a form of insurance by buying houses and flats in Serbia proper. Zoran Mihajovic, also from northern Mitrovica, said the issue of Kosovo was a done deal and that there would not be room for Serbs in it.

“Like walking on broken glass – that’s how I would feel in independent Kosovo,” he said, adding that he had bought an apartment in Belgrade some time ago. It was only a matter of time before he leaves Kosovo for good, he said.

Igor Milic is BIRN’s northern Mitrovica correspondent.