It would be a temptation for any Government sitting with a large Budget surplus to use it for political - if not outright populist - purposes, especially with a parliamentary election less than a year away.
The proposals that have emanated in recent days from Labour and Social Policy Minister Emilia Maslarova and Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev seem to be evidence of this.
It is projected that Bulgaria’s Budget surplus will reach about six billion leva by the end of 2008. Unquestionably, this is a large sum, but perhaps not so when it is taken into consideration that the country has extremely pressing needs in regard to infrastructure and other matters, such as the urgent need to devote resources to reforming law enforcement. Further, the Budget surplus cannot be considered in isolation from the context of the country’s disturbingly deepening current account deficit.
It is no bad thing for Bulgaria’s Government to offer some tangible evidence that it cares about the people of this country by moving to assist those most economically vulnerable.
The Government proposes to give 100 leva each in assistance to the country’s poorest households, to give 282 leva each to the poorest households to assist them to heat their houses during winter, to assist first-grade pupils financially and, not only has it promised - without specifying a figure - the “largest ever” Christmas bonus for pensioners, but also is to offer about 3000 to 5000 pensioners holidays at the seaside or in the mountains during autumn at state expense.
One may wonder how much real difference these sums would make to the people affected, in the absence of a longer-term solution such as a thorough re-look at pensions and other forms of social assistance in the context of a country where cost of living is rapidly increasing, but it is no wonder that the measures are being interpreted by the Government’s political detractors as populism. It is also no wonder that some have described the measures in bald terms as “vote-buying”, especially remembering that, proportionately, pensioners are a constituency with a high rate of voter turnout. Again, however, one may wonder whether pensioners struggling to get by on what they get in the normal course of events would be so easily fooled.
Separately, Maslarova has proposed another social measure, to increase 90 per cent paid maternity leave from the current 315 days to 410 days. This is a substantial difference, and may, among all the other proposals, be regarded as the one that makes the most sense in the long term. It may not be decisive on its own, but any measure that helps towards addressing Bulgaria’s grave demographic shortfall and its long-term impact on the labour market should be acknowledged.
Overall, however, what is really needed is a sensible, sober and hopefully non-partisan debate on what to do with the country’s Budget surplus. It is true that infrastructure needs must be met so that the strategic needs of the country are met, and it is also true that social needs must be addressed in a serious way, one that is sustainable in the long-term. Short of that, throwing out random forms of assistance, including the chance for a 10-day holiday while scrabbling for an existence on the other 355 days of the year, only illustrates the need for genuine social reforms, not mere state-subsidised short-term socialising.
















