The European Union needs a rapid improvement in its performance in dealing with the unfolding saga of Serbia and Kosovo.
The victory of Boris Tadic in the Serbian presidential election run-off on February 3 may be interpreted as encouraging given that he is seen as a leader in the pro-EU camp in Serbia, but it must be remembered that this is only in the context of how Tadic and others perceive the optimum way of protecting Serbia’s national interests.
It is widely expected that the coming weeks will see a declaration of independence by Kosovo. Europe must be seen to prove to be a skilled midwife of this process, including in dealing with the possible risky aftermath of the precedent that independence for Kosovo could set.
The EU should be well aware that the lure of association with, and ultimate membership of, the union should not be regarded as decisive for Serbia. Mindful of its powerful backing from Russia, and the divisions within Europe on the question of independence for Kosovo – recently, Romania said that it would not recognise Kosovo independence, a move made by Bucharest on the basis of some of its own domestic concerns – Belgrade is well aware that its position in dealing with the rest of Europe in not entirely weak.
While it is true that the Stabilisation and Association Agreement was blocked because of the firm stance taken by the Netherlands that Serbia should first give up its war criminals for international trial, it is notable that Serbia was ready not to be seen to grab desperately at the next best thing, a deal on visas, trade and educational co-operation with the EU. In expressing frustration at prime minister Vojislav Kostunica about the cancellation of the signing of this latter deal, European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn was ill-advised to highlight the election of Tadic as a sign that Kostunica is out of step. Rehn’s perspective may resonate in the Western media, but on the contested field that is the future of Serbia, Rehn’s reproach will go the way of an ice-cube on a barbeque griddle.
However, whatever grandstanding currently is going on between Brussels and Belgrade, Kosovo will become independent and all concerned will have to find their best way over the bumpy road ahead. The EU has taken a sensible approach in arranging the assistance that it plans for the territory, but should be ready to respond quickly in the event of trouble. One way to deal with any serious turbulence that may arise would be to put together a squad of the EU’s most effective foreign envoys, those best prepared not only to be tough but also to work diligently and firmly towards achieving a consensus solution – and a solution that would be workable for people of reason in Serbia and in Kosovo, and moreover, among the capitals of the EU states.
Not only for the future of the people immediately affected by the Serbia-Kosovo issue, but for the people of Europe, the EU needs to be able to take a new step towards maturity in the swiftness and thoroughness of its response, especially given the current vacuum in mature and responsible international leadership. There is a need for Midwife Europa to step up and take her role.
