The year 2007 may more fairly be described as a bookmark year than a landmark year.
In the future, historians may note it as a year in which certain there were certain turning points, along with the confirmation of some trends established in previous years. As a matter of record, it certainly will be remembered as the first year of Bulgaria’s membership of the European Union. But that, in itself, did not bring all the changes for the better that many, reasonably or unreasonably, may have hoped for.
On the economic front, there were a number of important developments. It was projected that by the end of the year, foreign direct investment would prove to have added up to 5.2 billion euro, a record and higher than earlier predicted. The fact of strong economic growth was unquestionable, but this went along with significantly rising cost of living and inflation, credit growth that continued to be high enough to worry the central bank, a current account deficit that caused widespread concern, as well as a continuing theme that will undoubtedly have a long-term negative impact on the economy, that of Bulgaria’s demographic downturn. Other important factors to be noted include rising incomes, a new militancy – possibly politically motivated – in labour strikes for higher pay, and on the plus side, tax reforms aimed at stimulating business.
However, remaining unresolved at the end of the year is the question of how Bulgaria deals sensibly and effectively with the question of the employment of foreign labour, and it is to be hoped that it comes up with a solution based on the country’s real economic needs rather than a simple labour market apartheid between EU and non-EU foreigners.
On the political front, 2007 confirmed the continuing rise of Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov’s party the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, known by its Bulgarian acronym, GERB. The size of the current coalition’s majority in Parliament is large enough to make it unlikely that the Government will be unseated and early elections held, and nor is there any sign of mass civil unrest that could compel the holding of elections earlier than scheduled. However, it may be that 2008 will prove to be the final full year in office of the current Government.
Elsewhere in South Eastern Europe, one of the major foreign policy challenges for Bulgaria will be dealing with the unfolding saga of Kosovo and Serbia. So far, Bulgaria seems to have done well in its multilateral and bilateral diplomatic engagements on this front, and it is to be hoped that Sofia could play a valuable role in assisting to achieve stability. Naturally, Kosovo is not the only area within the Western Balkans where Bulgaria could play a helpful role.
At home, it is clear that grave issues like organised crime and corruption are a very long way from being dealt with adequately, whatever progress the authorities may claim in terms of prosecutions. Consider on its own the large number of trials that fail because charges expire after reaching the statute of limitations on prosecutions; that is just one area where much remains to be done. Now that the Government has got its State Agency for National Security plan approved, it is to hoped that this proves an effective tool against organised crime and, of course, any threat of terrorism.
The year 2008 must be a year in which everyone gets down to work to increase productivity. Not least the Government, considering that for the first time in quite a while, 12 months should go by without anyone having to be distracted by elections.
