President Anibal Cavaco Silva is the runaway favourite to win a second term in the January 23 Portuguese election.

Latest polls give the incumbent around 60 per cent of the vote, enought to secure him outright victory in the first round.

Cavaco Silva, the candidate of the right-of-centre Social Democratic Party, has now served five years in office, having first won election in January 2006. The contest is set against the backdrop of a difficult economic situation and the possibility of Portugal having to agree to a bail-out package from the IMF.

When announcing his decision to run for a second term, Cavaco Silva said: "Given the extremely difficult situation Portugal is facing at the moment, I thought it was my duty to stand for election. With my experience and my knowledge, I can help my country." Cavaco Silva, 71, has repeatedly expressed concerns about Portugal's large national debt during the campaign.

All soundings indicate a wide margin separating Cavaco Silva from Manuel Alegre, his socialist opponent. Alegre, 74, although the candidate of the left, has taken pains to stress his independence from the ruling Socialist Party of prime minister Jose Socrates which has imposed an unpopular package of austerity measures. Alegre was also runner-up in the 2006 presidential election. Mario Soares came third in the same contest.

In Portuguese politics, the president is usually a non-partisan figure. This does not mean that he is without allegiance – Cavaco Silva was a long-serving prime minister – but that he or she is not meant to interfere too much in internal politics. Rather, the president speaks on behalf of the nation. Hence it is easier for Portuguese presidents to remain popular because they are generally seen to be above the fray.

Cavaco Silva, who was prime minister between 1985 and 1995, was widely credited for steering Portugal towards better economic times and sealing his country's entry into the EU. Ironically, his period in office was marked by rumours of persistent infighting with then president Mario Soares.

Despite advancing age – he was 81 at the time – Soares (who had already served 10 years as president) challenged Cavaco Silva for the presidency in 2006. The Portuguese constitution allowed for Soares to serve a third term in office as long as it was not served consecutively. In the event, Soares was easily defeated.

President Cavaco Silva's inauguration in Lisbon in 2006 was attended by many dignitaries from overseas, most notably former US president George (Herbert Walker) Bush.