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Sat, May 26 2012
Union's grim predictions for unemployment in Bulgaria
Photo: Zhivko Angelov
The latest projections for unemployment in Bulgaria for 2010 see it reaching 14 to 15 per cent, Bulgarian news agency BTA said on February 10 2010.
The prediction is based on projections made available by Zheliasko Hristov, president of the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria (CITUB).
The official projection for the national unemployment level for 2010 is 11.4 per cent, but fears arising from the unravelling economic environment are that unemployment could be worse than first projected.
Hristov said that the projected 'official' employment level of 11.4 per cent for 2010 has already been reached. But those statistics only take into account the unemployed who are register themselves at job centres or claim unemployment benefits – in reality however, the number of unemployed is substantially higher.
Trade unions say that nationwide unemployment is likely to reach 20 per cent, but even at the more 'optimistic' projection of 15 per cent, that would transpire into a slow and arduous economic recovery in the future, CITUB said, cited by BTA.
The prediction is based on projections made available by Zheliasko Hristov, president of the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria (CITUB).
The official projection for the national unemployment level for 2010 is 11.4 per cent, but fears arising from the unravelling economic environment are that unemployment could be worse than first projected.
Hristov said that the projected 'official' employment level of 11.4 per cent for 2010 has already been reached. But those statistics only take into account the unemployed who are register themselves at job centres or claim unemployment benefits – in reality however, the number of unemployed is substantially higher.
Trade unions say that nationwide unemployment is likely to reach 20 per cent, but even at the more 'optimistic' projection of 15 per cent, that would transpire into a slow and arduous economic recovery in the future, CITUB said, cited by BTA.
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ExPat,
you agree with the article, or with the views of the corrupt Bulgarian labor union leadership, which the article depicts?
You, and they, are wrong.
The last thing BG needs is to do is "spend our way to prosperity". Yes we can - was the war cry for Obama, but he will sriously manage to finally bring down the US, the way he is going, and I think most Americans are waking up to that fact - so no, nothing really worth imitating in that corner;)
Infrastructure is something [...]
Read the full comment you build to
accomodate needs, not stimulate growth.
Funds we may not quite be able to absorb, but pain we will - BG has a large gray economy and I see that as a buffer against official unemployment.
Very few are relaying on pay checks alone.
Exactly expat - all what you say is true and correct. BG is in a corner now. Much of the former FDI has been driven away by rampant corruption and very bad infrastructure. The two are very much linked here.
Even after such long previous economic growth BG is pretty much n bad shape. So just imagine the picture with very little economic growth. Many developed Countries such as the US, Uk and Australia had the ability to "spend" their way out of this crisis. I don't think Bg is in such a position.
[...]
Read the full comment
Sure Bg has great potential but it seriously need massive reforms, there needs to be serious change in mentality or attitude.
I agree with the article the recovery will be very slow and burdensome
@Peter: I agree the worst is to come yet
can anyone explain me the why BG is in better situation than others?
the economic growth in the past years have been driven by FDI, which are now missing. from my perspective those will not come back again (for sure not in similar volume as in 2008 and before). incompetence in administration has prevented to absorb available free EU money.
About the strength:
[...]
Read the full comment /> there is no significant production and export industry in BG, which could trigger growth.
there is no qualified service industry (e.g. tourism) which could lead out of the crisis.
real estate bubble is burst and most likely will not reach past levels very soon. where should the quick recovery came from?
conclusio: I think the unemployment levels will for sure reach 20% (prob. more). not forget the huge unproductive and inefficient levels which are present in most of the companies (30% compared to CE levels). taking these resources into account the "hidden" unemployment level is already at these levels.
I think the only possible way out for BG will be increase public debt (as all the others do) and spend it very wisely in infrastructure and reforms ! the big question which is left will be, CAN THEY ? (hopefully the answer will be yes we can :-) )
BG has got everything that any human being could ask for,
Coast line, Ski resorts, open countryside, and they do not have a clue how to use it. Bulgaria could be at the top of the tourist list if only they had the will to improve all there attractions.
Come on people get it together.
"Don't you think they stick their heads in the sand?"
Of course I do! What government doesn't though? The Scandinavians? Isn't Iceland Scandinavian? The Greeks? The Spanish? The British? Look at the fiscal excrement they find themselves in neck deep... I am at the point when I am glad if the government does next to nothing. Fix some roads, build some new, clean in the areas where I frequent - that's all... frankly if corruption means that not much money is getting to the government, be it.
Money to the government is [...]
Read the full comment like a drug - they get addicted, and tomorrow they'll need more. All those EU (and the US) countries that are burdened with staggering debts, are so not because they don't tax enough, or that the tax money don't get to them due to corruption, but because they do get so much money - in massive amounts.. That's when they come up with those super creative ways of spending them, to justify their existence and solidify their "power base" - there really is no win situation.
The problem with keeping the "power base" happy is that they end up getting addicted too. Look what's happening with Greece - all those EU funds that were "wonderfully absorbed" have created a population with expectations far beyond they productive capabilities, and if you so much as try to bring them back to reality, they'll burn their country down...
Government is no salvation. Keep your money away from them, if you don't want your children to be their slaves one day, living with 50-70% tax rates like the miserable Scandinavians...
Maybe better than other EU members, but still a very long way from where they could have been if there wasn't so much corruption.
Don't you think they stick their heads in the sand? Watch and you will see floods AGAIN because of the melting snow because AGAIN nothing has been done about it!
These people could stay at home if the other people had the sense to use garbage cans instead of throwing everything on the streets.
Are these people supposed to be working its not a wonder that BG is such a dirty country.I could show them where to sweep up and thats on the coast this will then bring in more tourists and BG will then bring in more money come on girls lets see the brush working.
Peter.
before you lose all perspective consider the source of this particular though - trade unions. It's in their interest to paint a darker picture of the situation. BG is still in better shape over all in this externally caused economic crises than many older and more established EU members...
It's not nice waking up with a giant head ache. This is what happens when government sticks its heads in the sand acting like there is no crisis in BG. Wake up people the worst is yet to come!
E.U. funding will never be enough, too much of that disappears in the wrong places (pockets).
Yeah, but so long as our fastest growing population segment - the above depicted Roma - don't begin to aspire to use tools other than the ones they are holding in the photo, all the EU funds aren't going to make much difference.
BG has only absorbed approx. 1.3 % of EU entitled funding. Perhaps if the remaining 98% was to be absorbed properly then one could say this could generate local employment!