Serbia

Politics confounded Serbia’s economic woes in 2009 as its free trade agreement with the EU was kept on hold pending The Netherlands and Belgium being satisfied that Belgrade was co-operating adequately with The Hague tribunal.

With the help of the IMF and EIB, among others, the government in Belgrade sought to get the economy back on track as the difficult days of 2009 saw unemployment climb and other economic indicators worsen, a reverse after previous years of good economic growth. The country went through 2009 on a restrictive budget as a key measure towards recovery.

It was in foreign policy that the government was most preoccupied, as it fought Kosovo’s self-declared independence in international court and through an international diplomatic campaign. Kosovo inevitably caused some tensions with neighbours: Bulgaria’s support for Kosovo in international court, Macedonia’s border demarcation deal with Kosovo and the announcement by Montenegro that it would establish formal diplomatic relations with Kosovo caused serious irritation in Belgrade.

Serbia’s inclusion in the list of countries to be exempted from Schengen visa requirements, and positive signals towards eventual accession to the EU, may have been psychological fillips, but wider politics – especially, but not only, the Kosovo issue saw ever-warming relations between Belgrade and Moscow.

On December 22, Serbian president Boris Tadic formally submitted his country’s application to join the EU. While it was expected that this application would be processed quickly, unofficial estimates were that actual accession would take several years.

Slovakia
Making headlines on January 1 2009 by becoming the newest member of the euro zone, Slovakia endured difficult months through the year until by the end of the year it could at least claim that the rate of contraction of its economy had decelerated.

Slovakia’s GDP decreased by 5.3 per cent in the first nine months of 2009, but the Q3 contraction was 4.8 per cent. A reduction in demand for Slovakian imports hit production and, in turn, employment, which towards the end of 2009 was more than 12 per cent. But local economists foresaw recovery in 2010 at a rate faster than its neighbours.

Slovakia held presidential elections, in two rounds on March 21 and April 4 2009, returning Ivan Gašparovič, who defeated conservative challenger Iveta Radičová.
Prime minister Robert Fico appears popular enough to face the elections expected in summer 2010 with confidence, in spite of controversies such as a battle within the judiciary over reforms, restrictions on media freedom, and allegations of cronyism and corruption in governance.

Turkey
In its protracted dialogue about getting help from the IMF, Ankara signalled that it did not really need the IMF. This turned out, in the short-term, to be true; economists said that Turkey was so used to crises that it had, so far, weathered the current economic troubles precisely because doing so was an accustomed practice for the country.

The impact was serious – mounting unemployment, to peak at levels not seen for 20 years, shrinking exports – but by no means as catastrophic as some had forecast.
In future years, sometime beyond 2010, it is possible to image writing the first sentence of these notes on Turkey, but substituting "the EU" for "the IMF".

Turkey was an issue throughout the EU throughout 2009, from the grandstanding by politicians in the European Parliament elections to the more profound question of the EU’s elected leaders deciding whether the country should be allowed to progress towards accession.

There is a certain street wisdom among some of those who want Turkey to join; for Greece and Cyprus, notably, getting Ankara on to the EU path means having a way of getting it to keep to the rules.

In international relations, Ankara was under pressure (how much is debatable, however) to settle the Cyprus issue by – among other things – admitting Cypriot ships to its ports and withdrawing military personnel from occupied Cyprus, the better to improve Turkey’s EU chances.
Greece wanted Turkey to live up to stated agreements against illegal immigration and to stop sending fighter aircraft into air space claimed by Greece. All of these issues were certain to linger into 2010.

On foreign policy, Turkey has been treated as an important player by the Obama administration, with cordial meetings between the US president and Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) will face national elections in 2011, possibly earlier. Domestic reforms have been few, caught up in the turmoil of politics in parliament. Violence came to some streets after the constitutional court shut down the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP).
Domestically, another major story is the Ergenekon trial, of numerous people from various parts of society that the government alleges were plotting to overthrow the constitutional order of Turkey.

Notably, in what was trivialised as "football diplomacy" but is of much more far-reaching consequence, Turkey and Armenia achieved progress in the restoration of ties, against a background of historically deeply troubled bilateral relations, notably because of the Armenian genocide of which Turkey denies the historical validity.