Sat, May 26 2012

New economic warning for Greece

Tue, Dec 08 2009 15:32 CET 2492 Views 24 Comments
New economic warning for Greece

Greece has been rocked by economic woes and civil disturbances in the past year

International fears over debt levels in Greece emerged once again on December 7 as Standard & Poors put the country's debt on notice for an imminent downgrade.

The agency placed the country on credit watch negative, meaning it is likely to lose its A- rating within months.

The Daily Telegraph's Jamie Dunkley, noting that Greece already has the lowest credit rating in the eurozone, says that there are fears that Greece's recently elected PASOK government may avoid making the cuts necessary in public spending to restore confidence.

"The news, which coincided with a separate warning from Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, pushed interest rates on Greek bonds to their highest levels in seven months," wrote Dunkley.

Standard & Poors added that Greece’s general government debt burden could reach 125pc of GDP in 2010, the largest in the eurozone, or move even higher over the medium term.  

Trichet indicated that the new government's recent actions were insufficient to arrest the crisis.   

"Some commentators suspect that Greece is particularly vulnerable to a fiscal crisis, since, as a euro member, it does not have the luxury of being able to devalue its currency or inflate its way out of a growing fiscal burden. It must either deflate and accept slow and painful economic stagnation, or default on its debts, calling the wider euro project into question," concluded Dunkley in The Daily Telegraph.

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Comments

Anonymous Europhilia Tue, Dec 15 2009 19:31 CET

I think <<Macedonian Greek>> has got this wrong somewhere.

Greece has invested Euros, not US dollars, in Macedonia, and unfortunately Greece has got its sums wrong.

So Greece - if Papandreou's desperate measures do not work - will have to leave the Eurozone, in which case unfortunately the Greek investments abroad will be worth far less.

Macedonia - very fortunately - is not a member of the Eurozone, so the value of its received investments will not depreciate in the same way as those of Greece.
[...]

Read the full comment
A complicated story - but the end result should be to bolster Macedonia's economy at the expense of that of Greece. Not a happy event - but that's international economics for you !

Anonymous Macedonian Greek Thu, Dec 10 2009 23:32 CET

Fyrom depends on Greece .Greece does not depend on Fyrom.Billions of Dollars are invested from Greece in Fyrom.

Anonymous periclis greece Thu, Dec 10 2009 19:45 CET

fyromanin dont worry about greece you must worry for fyrom!!!!!!!if never have realy problem e.u support us for sure!!!so dont worry!!!!!

Anonymous Aries Thu, Dec 10 2009 16:56 CET

Europhilia.
Oui mon ami continue your "dada"
with Fyrom.

Anonymous Europhilia Thu, Dec 10 2009 13:25 CET

BasilMacedon - as GMS would say, an unsubstantiated Wiki article ain't evidence. Also, measuring EU expenditure doesn't measure EU fraud. You need the EU OLAF database for that.

Beyond that, Nicola is quite right in what she claims, if you take account of informed unofficial Brussels opinions.

As regards nomenclature of Macedonia, a majority of the EU's 27 member-states accept this name as the "constitutional name", as do 121 out of 189 UN member-nations (including Bulgaria). So the "pass is sold", I fear.)

Anonymous BasilMacedon Wed, Dec 09 2009 23:52 CET

Nicola, you said "Greece is the biggest EU fund abuser"
To help you with you "scientific" research.. read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union#State_by_state_analysis
If you see the ratio out/in money you will find out that Louxenbourg, Poland, Romania ,Portugal, Spain Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Hungary, Latvia, Lithouania are much worst "abusers".

Also..guys.. Macedonia is into EU like Attica, Epirus, Creta etc etc. Vardarska Banovina is not :)

Anonymous 1 Wed, Dec 09 2009 22:48 CET

Europhilia
Rejoice with this one off the shelf news
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/6771252/Pre-Budget-report-national-debt-will-hit-1.5-trillion.html
Rreally what happened with the past 850 billiion transfusion the banks
Mon ami on ne parle pas de cordes
dans la maison d'un pendu.

Anonymous Aries Wed, Dec 09 2009 22:16 CET

Europhilia
You are stubborn i knew it but
i granted you the priviledge of being a good reader,
In your anti-hellenic menos (greek
word for seizure) you forgot or deliberatly ignored my previous
post
You are actually surely stuck to your views repeating yourself and your wishfull thinking so many times it often becomes boring i.e "philotimo".
Then it was Karamanlis now it is
Papandreou
Please do stick to your sweet Fyrom

Anonymous Europhilia Wed, Dec 09 2009 20:24 CET

Yes, WTF, we probably had crossed wires ! I agree the state of the Macedonian economy is pretty dreadful - it's probably only the relatively rich "diaspora" that keeps it going (a bit like the Chicago Polish "diaspora" - or "emigracija" as they called it) - kept Peoples' Poland going by supporting the Black Economy, up until 1989 when Poland became democratic and the currency (zloty) went into free-fall: 50 zlotys to USD 1 in 1988 - 500,000 zlotys to USD 1 in 1992. (It's been redemoninated since, and is now a fairly 'hard' non-EURO currency.) But a lot of [...]

Read the full comment people lost all their savings....

This kind of scenario might just happen in Macedonia - hopefully not - but as the Macedonian dinar is not directly tied to the EURO or the dollar, if it did happen the long-term effects would be no worse than in Poland (i.e. not too bad, unless you had lots of dinar savings.)

The problem for Greece is that it has probably one of the EU's weakest economies, but it is also tied to the EURO, so it cannot do as Poland did in order to get out of the present economic mess (i.e. devalue like hell etc.)

Greece's easiest solution is probably to get itself an opt-out from the EUROzone as soon as possible, re-introduce the drachma, and let the drachma "float" (or sink) until it becomes stable at (I guess) 10,000 drachmae to 1 USD, at which point the currency can be redenominated as it was in Poland and stability can be resumed.

But this would be very hard for the Papandreou government to implement, and would go strongly against traditional Greek "philotimo". Against that, it is probably the correct answer.

Apart from that, I agree with everything you say !

Anonymous wtf Wed, Dec 09 2009 19:47 CET

Hi Europhilia

I think we have crossed wires regarding the Macedonia comment. I was questioning why someone called "Macedonia's economy is far worse" was even bringing this into the topic. Well i know why. Is because its is to deflect blame and criticism rather than acknowledge and deal with the problem. Which is a shame really because there is a lot of potential in Greece and other southern eastern / Balkan countries. What you have said IMHO is correct though.

Anonymous Funny people!! Wed, Dec 09 2009 19:43 CET

Guys all of u relax.Greece is at the moment a game in the hands of the stocker.It happened in the past,it will happen again its ok!Its good that this came show our goverment will wake up and we wont end up living like you people.No offence on this.Sleep good on the night regarding this issue ok neighboors??Cheers!!

Anonymous Europhilia Wed, Dec 09 2009 18:58 CET

WTF - yes, we all know that Macedonia's economy is "down the tubes", but "t'was always thus"; it always has been the case - no change. Hence Macedonia's wish to join the EU and gain lots of EU subsidies, like Bulgaria....

Greece, in contrast, was held up to us all as a "model economy", especially at the time of the Athens Olympics only a few years ago. But suddenly things for Greece are rather different on the economic front, and suddenly it finds itself bracketed with the less-worse developing countries such as Botswana and Tanzania in [...]

Read the full comment the "BBB" rating.

Still, it hasn't yet joined Zimbabwe in the "CCC" category.... although, as you say, Greece's history of corruption and poor public administration is rather along "CCC" lines....

So much EU money has gone into aid to Greek development since the early 1980s when Greece first joined the EU.

I wonder in whose pockets that money now lies ? (You can bet your boots they are Greek pockets.....)

As regards corruption and "non-transparent finances" in Greece, WTF, you are of course entirely right in what you say.

Anonymous wtf Wed, Dec 09 2009 16:55 CET

Macedonia's economy is far worse

What does Macedonia have to do with the economic problems with in Greece? I notice that you recognise the name Macedonia :)

Nicola has pointed out quite rightly that tax evasion and corruption are rife within Greece.

It's high time that these problems are tackled . Greece has been a member of the EU since the early 1980's but has a corruption rating in line with the former communist block countries, who have had economic and political freedom for a small number of [...]

Read the full comment years. How is this so?



Anonymous Europhilia Wed, Dec 09 2009 16:22 CET

It doesn't really matter for Macedonia, which is a "development country" in UN terms with a very DP per capita (USD 4000 per annum ?)

But it does matter for Greece, which is now locked in to the strict rules of the EuroZone: no devaluation possible, nor no remonetarisation ( which removes two of the crude but effective economic tools that Macedonia still has available.)

The only viable solution is probably for Greece to leave the EuroZone and re-establish the drachma, which would be immmensely repercussive both at home amd abroad, both [...]

Read the full comment in economics and in domestic politics.

Aries observed that the Greek decision to join the EuroZone was driven purely by domestic political considerations such as getting the Greek alphabet on the Euro banknotes (maybe domestic economic considerations should also have played a role ?) , so now maybe the decision to leave the EuroZone might instead be economics -driven ?

Expect new Euro banknotes without the Greek alphabet shortly....

Anonymous george Wed, Dec 09 2009 12:55 CET

well for those who really know the economic situation in greece,they know that more or less the debt is very high for many years now.
and with the exception of 2009 greece was a growth leading country in E.U., so if economic growth is high next year there will be no problem.Usa has a high debt , but this does not imply that they are going poor.

Anonymous peter Wed, Dec 09 2009 12:22 CET

but does FYROM have the same level of debt?? They may not have any money but its not the same thing as overborrowing

Anonymous Macedonia's economy is far worse Wed, Dec 09 2009 12:07 CET

Macedonia expects the opening of the membership talks with unemployment three times higher than the average for the European Union, Macedonian Alfa television informed. More than 1/3 of the active population in Macedonia, or 350 000, have registered in the Employment Agency every month. The employment agencies said a work can be found but mostly for young and qualified people. With 38% unemployment Macedonia tops the list on this index in the region, media informed.

Anonymous Peter Wed, Dec 09 2009 11:58 CET

O love Greece but could never understand how they got so much wealth in such a short time. Back in the 70's it was similar to Bulgaria and Donkey and carts could be seen all over crete. Now I am told crete has one of the highest standards of living in Europe and dont those state pensions make you just a bit jealous?? Not even Germany is so generous with its pensions so the money had to come from somewhere. They took too much too quickly and must now sadly pay for it

Anonymous NICOLA Wed, Dec 09 2009 07:09 CET

EU: won't be viable forever it will collapse within time. and soon greece will have to announce bankruptcy,its not if but when.

Anonymous NILCOLA Wed, Dec 09 2009 07:00 CET

Why greece is in this situation.

1. Tax Evasion
2. Coruption

Anonymous NICOLA Wed, Dec 09 2009 06:55 CET

tide of deception
I'm not at all suprised greece going bankrupt, because greeks entered european union by deception giving the eu bogus economic deficit figures.
greece is the biggest euro funds abuser.


Anonymous Aries Tue, Dec 08 2009 22:50 CET

Europhilia
Wethether in or out an Econonic Crisis is a serious thing in a period of worldwide recession due
past overestimated Stock Exchange
Values certainly not in accordancre to Real economy values
World wide the Balloon bursted
in the face of Speculators


>>Why did Greece join the Euro in the first place ? <<
___________________________

It was a pure political decision
very well taken at the time
which harnessed Speculation
that is [...]

Read the full comment what's happenning right now.
Speculators outsmarted!! in the bond market.


Anonymous Europhilia Tue, Dec 08 2009 19:32 CET

Sorry - Aries - this is the first time that Greece has had one of its regular economic crises whilst a member of the EuroZone, and it's that that makes the difference.

The EuroZone does not permit much divergence from central rates and liquidity.

So when the article above says:

<< as a euro member, Greece does not have the luxury of being able to devalue its currency or inflate its way out of a growing fiscal burden. It must either deflate and accept slow and painful economic [...]

Read the full comment stagnation, or default on its debts, calling the wider Greek membership of the Euro into question >>,

it is, I afraid, entirely right.

This might well impact upon Greece's other aims elsewhere in the region, such as Macedonia, Turkish provocation, and relations with Bulgaria.

But that, I am afraid, is what happens when you joing an economic "club" such as the Euro with very strict rules.

Why did Greece join the Euro in the first place ? There were many more macro-economic indicators indicating "against" than there were indicating "for".

Anonymous Aries Tue, Dec 08 2009 18:55 CET

Rubbish!!!!!
Greece has been through that a multitude of times before.
Not the fist time and certainily not the last.
Speculators Rejoice!!!


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