If you are wondering where the new Russian emergency situations ministry headquarters will be, the answer is – about 90km west of the Bulgarian border in the Serbian town of Nis.

In late October, Serbia and Russia completed an agreement that would enable the establishment of a humanitarian base in the Serbian town, from which Russian aircraft will operate in times of natural disasters, such as forest fires which frequently ravage the region. On the face of it, the concept sounds noble, but some additional details of the deal are cause for concern – the presence of a Russian sapper detachment, for one. More often than not, in many cases Russian "noble ideas" conceal other objectives.

The awkward thing in this case is both countries’ decision to open a joint base. Usually countries sign treaties on bilateral assistance, or private companies set up logistic centres from which governments hire aircraft in cases of emergency.

Earlier, a Bulgarian company Air Sofia wanted to establish a base at the same location, but the plan eventually collapsed, Lilyan Todorov, one of the company’s owners said. He said that the company had seven aircraft, of which one was always on standby and could have been redirected to firefighting duties at any time if necessary. The plan did not come to pass because the company’s aircraft  were taken out of use. As for whether the planned Air Sofia base and the Serbian-Russian humanitarian base were the same thing, answers were not given, despite their similarity.

According to Russia’s ambassador in Serbia, Alexander Konuzin, construction of the joint base will start by summer 2010, within the perimeter of the current Nis airport. The idea is for it to evolve into a regional centre for humanitarian activities in which other countries, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, and Macedonia will also participate.

"Russian forces are employed every year in combating wild forest fires in this region, so us having a well-equipped base there will facilitate our operations and make our work more effective," according to Russian emergency situations minister Sergei Shoigu.

Regardless of these attempted reassurances, Serbian media came up with conspiracy theories about the Russian base. One was that the facility’s primary objective is to protect the South Stream natural gas pipeline.

"This is not just a fire fighting station, nor is it a classic military base. This is an example of one of those bases that goes hand-in-hand with major geopolitical and/or energy projects, such as linking gas pipelines," Serbian journalist Dimitrije Boarov said.

It is possible that Moscow will attempt to secure the pipeline through this base, as the pipeline itself is intended to pass through Nis.

Notably, two years ago an idea was circulated in Bulgaria that the Bulgarian secret services and its Russian counterpart would create a joint task force specialising in pipeline security for the Bourgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline project. The idea, supported at the time by then Bulgarian interior minister Roumen Petkov, was met with a barrage of public opposition and had to be subsequently scrapped. Still, it is well known that the Russian legislation allows gas companies like Gazprom and Transneft to raise their own "private security armies" for protection.

Serbian military analyst Alexander Radic said that the construction of the Nis base and the construction of South Stream were inter-connected, but not exclusively. This theory is supported by the actions of Russian sapper detachment earlier in May when they secured areas around Nis.

"Officially, this was presented as a humanitarian operation, with sappers helping the local authorities clear up ordnance left over from the last Nato bombardment. In reality it turned out that Russians were only interested in the corridor – the area which will be occupied by the pipeline, and from the Nis airport," Radic said.

Accordingly, the very idea that the base and the pipeline are intertwined has raised suspicion that the arrival of Russian military units in Serbia could be in the offing.

"In some cases, the security meant to protect the project arrives, but the project itself doesn’t get carried out – and this is precisely what I am worried may happen," Boarov said.
Nis has always been a desired location for the Russian forces, as the town is near to Kosovo where the largest American military installation in the Balkans is also positioned – Camp Bondsteel. Moreover, a future Russian military base in Nis will assist them in monitoring activities in the two passes of vast strategic importance for the Russians, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.

Serbian media said that in 2001 there were talks between Serbian and Russian officials on the construction of a Russian base in the region, but its implementation was eventually shattered by the assassination of Serbian prime minister Zoran Dindjic in March 2003. The American analysis agency for Strategic Forecasting, Inc., more commonly known as Stratfor, recently said that once the base in Nis is complete, it could easily evolve from a humanitarian installation into a military one. Stratfor argues that the purpose of Russia’s emergency situations ministry is not solely for environmental disaster relief but also for military operations in the Caucasus. It also controls the work of civil protection services which have a paramilitary status.

It is clear that the construction of this base will raise even more questions in the future on the Balkans. One question will be how the presence of a Russian base corresponds to Serbia’s declared military neutrality in the region.

Kapital weekly, Issue 45