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Fri, Feb 10 2012
Bulgaria recession deepens to 5.8% in Q3 - official estimate
Photo: Assen Tonev
Bulgaria's economy shrank by a real 5.8 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2009 and 4.8 per cent year-on-year for the first nine months of the year, the country's National Statistics Institute (NSI) said in a flash estimate on November 13.
In absolute terms, third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was 17.78 billion leva and nine-month GDP was 48.06 billion leva.
In 2008, the Bulgarian economy grew by 6.8 per cent in the third quarter and seven per cent in January-September, buoyed by the momentum accumulated during years of cheaply-available credit. The country officially entered a recession in the first quarter of 2009.
The biggest decline was posted by the industry, which shrank by 10 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter and 9.8 per cent year-on-year for the first nine months of the year.
Agriculture grew by three per cent in the third quarter over the same period of last year, but shrank by one per cent during the first nine months of 2009.
The services sector posted an annual drop of 5.7 per cent in the third quarter and one per cent for January-September, NSI said in a statement.
Consumption, which was one of the main drivers of economic growth in recent years, was down an annual 10.6 per cent for the quarter and 6.4 per cent in the nine months of the year. Investment was down 22.9 per cent and 18.1 per cent, respectively.
Exports shrank by 13.2 per cent year-on-year for the quarter and 15.3 per cent for January-September, while imports were down by an annual 28.7 per cent and 24.8 per cent, respectively.
The big drop in imports gave Bulgaria a quarterly trade surplus of 760 million leva for the quarter, the first quarterly surplus in five years. For the first nine months of the year, the trade gap was 3.6 billion leva, down by 65 per cent year on year.
NSI's flash estimates, which were launched in 2008, are based on limited data and are subject to revision. The statistics board is scheduled to publish detailed data for third-quarter and nine-month economic growth on December 10.
In absolute terms, third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was 17.78 billion leva and nine-month GDP was 48.06 billion leva.
In 2008, the Bulgarian economy grew by 6.8 per cent in the third quarter and seven per cent in January-September, buoyed by the momentum accumulated during years of cheaply-available credit. The country officially entered a recession in the first quarter of 2009.
The biggest decline was posted by the industry, which shrank by 10 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter and 9.8 per cent year-on-year for the first nine months of the year.
Agriculture grew by three per cent in the third quarter over the same period of last year, but shrank by one per cent during the first nine months of 2009.
The services sector posted an annual drop of 5.7 per cent in the third quarter and one per cent for January-September, NSI said in a statement.
Consumption, which was one of the main drivers of economic growth in recent years, was down an annual 10.6 per cent for the quarter and 6.4 per cent in the nine months of the year. Investment was down 22.9 per cent and 18.1 per cent, respectively.
Exports shrank by 13.2 per cent year-on-year for the quarter and 15.3 per cent for January-September, while imports were down by an annual 28.7 per cent and 24.8 per cent, respectively.
The big drop in imports gave Bulgaria a quarterly trade surplus of 760 million leva for the quarter, the first quarterly surplus in five years. For the first nine months of the year, the trade gap was 3.6 billion leva, down by 65 per cent year on year.
NSI's flash estimates, which were launched in 2008, are based on limited data and are subject to revision. The statistics board is scheduled to publish detailed data for third-quarter and nine-month economic growth on December 10.
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Valentina Dikanska is the new general manager of chemical industry giant BASF subsidiary in Bulgaria, taking over from Herbert Fisch, BASF vice president for Southeastern Europe. Dikanska, who started her career as an expert in the Finance Ministry, joined BASF Bulgaria as director of finance and administration in 2002. She becomes the first Bulgarian to hold the top management position in the company in its 40-year history on the Bulgarian market. Dikanska holds a master's degree in economics from the University for National and World Economy in Sofia.
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Alexander Albin has been appointed chief executive of fuel distributor Rompetrol Bulgaria, replacing Nichita Sorin, who left to become chief executive of Rompetrol Gaz in Romania. Albin was previously chief executive of Rompetrol Georgia. He has more than 15 years of experience in the oil and gas industry; prior to joining Romania's oil group Rompetrol in 2008 as an adviser, he oversaw operations at Atyrau refinery in Kazakhstan, owned by Rompetrol's parent company KazMunaiGaz. He previously held top management positions at two other leading Kazakh oil and gas companies.
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expat, check the numbers: in relative terms, investment looks big, but that is because it starts off the low base.
Consumption growth in 2005/08: 17% (5.5 billion leva in today's prices)
Total investment by firms in Bulgaria in 2005/08: 68% (6.4 billion leva)
Calling foreign (cheap) loans to Bulgarian banks and the moeny put in by property speculators investment is a misnomer.
If your point was that foreign cash inflows (which is how FDI is defined around these parts) fuelled the boom, then you are correct. [...]
Read the full comment
On the spending side of GDP, however, consumption was as big part of economic growth as proper investment (capital formation).
sorry I forgot to mention:
US economy growth may be consumption driven.
CE ist definately export driven
and SEE growth in the past years was for sure mainly FDI driven
"Consumption, which was one of the main drivers of economic growth in recent years,.."
I haver seriouos doubts that this correct !!
where do the authors geht this srap, do they perform serious jounalism by background crosschechking of storie or just retype what press agencies announce ????
I clearly can see the lack of press freedom and quality journalism....
very poor performance