On paper, the logic of expanding the eurozone is simple – whoever meets the Maastricht criteria can join and those that do not meet them cannot. Short and clear, but only in theory.

Some Western countries were allowed into the eurozone without meeting the requirements – whether by manipulating the statistical data or by circumventing the requirements or on political grounds. Furthermore, there are countries that even after joining the eurozone do not meet the requirements, especially in the current conditions of an economic crisis.

At the same time, Bulgaria meets almost all Maastricht criteria and, should it maintain a prudent policy course, will soon meet the last requirement, namely inflation. In other words, very soon Bulgaria will meet all Maastricht criteria for membership in the eurozone.

For years now, the situation is that countries outside the eurozone are better prepared for membership than some countries inside it. Making the next step forward, we will have a situation in which a country outside the eurozone is doing better on the Maastricht criteria than all countries in the eurozone. Considering how unprepared some countries were when they joined the eurozone, Bulgaria should be the ideal candidate and join smoothly, correct?

Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case. Bulgaria is yet to be accepted into the exchange rate mechanism (ERM-2), the waiting room, of sorts, for the eurozone. Joining the ERM-2 is traditionally easy and does not require meeting a set of criteria. Despite that, Bulgaria is yet to be allowed into the ERM-2.

So, Bulgaria is behaving like a good pupil, ratifying constitutions, Lisbon treaties and any rational and irrational paperwork from Brussels. In exchange, it is not even allowed into the eurozone waiting room.

New test
Bulgaria is now making a new attempt to join the ERM-2 and this time its arguments are bulletproof: we are a country that meets the criteria for adopting the euro; we are a country that is managing to deal with the economic crisis without the International Monetary Fund’s help; we are a country that scores better on stability indicators than many other countries that are members of the eurozone.

If even under these circumstances Bulgaria is not allowed into the ERM-2, then clearly the rules in the European Union are not the same for everyone. Bulgaria’s accession treaty stipulates that the country has the right and obligation to join the eurozone. If we are not being allowed into the eurozone, there is a clear violation of the treaty – a violation by the EU institutions.

If they breach the treaty and are not allowing us into the eurozone, why should we comply with them, why not introduce the euro ourselves? We can adopt the euro unilaterally by invoking the accession treaty and the Maastricht criteria. We have met the criteria and are taking what is rightfully ours.

European institutions will not like this approach. They would prefer for us to wait for years and decades until they grace us with the permission to join the eurozone. But should they pause to reflect, they will understand that they are very wrong.

The first scenario would be for us to remain outside the eurozone, and reduced support for prudent economic policies. Some politicians will think that reforms are pointless if they are not rewarded, by acceptance into the eurozone in this instance. In this case, the EU gains nothing, because it encourages populism and imprudence in yet another country.

The second scenario would be for Bulgaria to stay outside the eurozone and manage on its own. Let us imagine, however, that prudent policies continue to be pursued for 10-15 years with Bulgaria outside the eurozone. Confidence in the Bulgarian currency will become even higher than now and it would be impossible to persuade voters to exchange the leva for the euro. In other words, Bulgaria would turn into a new Sweden or United Kingdom and never join the eurozone, a scenario under which European institutions would lose the most.

In conclusion, they should either allow us into the ERM-2 and the eurozone soon or allow us to adopt the euro on our own. The other alternatives are not good ones.