A popular topic in diplomatic circles in Sofia is the question of who will be Bulgaria’s next Foreign Minister. But before a name can be announced, several other things have to happen, in several other capital cities in the European Union.

With the delay caused to the Lisbon Treaty by the stalling by Czech president Vaclav Klaus, word is that the European Council meeting on October 29 and 30 may see EU heads of state and government vote to give a temporary extension of life to the current European Commission.

It is to this new European Commission that Bulgaria has nominated current Foreign Minister Roumyana Zheleva, and while lobbying is proceeding, it is not yet clear to which portfolio she will be appointed, when she and other candidate commissioners will be approved, or even for how long the new EC will serve – the latter depending on when the Nice Treaty arrangements make way for those of Lisbon. Sofia is unlikely to name her successor until the EC process of which Zheleva is part is completed.

Technically, the term of office of the current EC expires at the end of October, and conservative estimates are that its life will be extended by a month, to act as a caretaker Commission. Some sources have suggested that the Commission may remain in place until 2010 and the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty.

Counting Bulgaria’s nomination of Zheleva, the names of only about 11 candidate commissioners are known, and in the case of some incumbents, there could be changes of portfolio. One reason is that some are understood to be seeking higher things, while EC President Jose Barroso, before winning a second term in office, indicated that he wanted to reshape the portfolios.

These factors complicate an already complex process of negotiations among individual EU states and between governments and Barroso.

Finland’s Olli Rehn has been backed by his government for another term on the EC, but the Enlargement Commissioner is believed to be interested in a more influential role, possibly in the powerful foreign affairs job envisaged in the Lisbon Treaty. Should this happen, it would enhance, although not make an inevitability of, Zheleva getting the enlargement portfolio which is on Bulgaria’s shopping list for her.

Other confirmed candidate commissioners are Estonia’s Siim Kallas, current EC Vice President for administrative affairs; Spain’s Joaquin Almunia, Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner; Italy’s Antonio Tajani, who has transport but could be in for a promotion; Luxembourg’s Viviane Reding, telecoms commissioner and Latvia’s Andris Piebalgs – who has the energy portfolio that Bulgaria covets but is seen as unlikely to get.

Romania has nominated Dacian Ciolos, a former agriculture minister for the EC agriculture portfolio, said to have had the backing of France, although now reportedly Paris has withdrawn it, and officially confirmed to have Bulgaria’s backing. Slovenia has again nominated Janez Potocnik, the incumbent in the research portfolio, while Slovakia’s Maros Sefcovic is said to be also interested in the much-sought-after energy portfolio.

Portugal, of course, is represented in the form of Barroso.
Another scenario for the next EC would be if one were to be brought in under the rules of the Nice Treaty, pending the outcome of the Lisbon Treaty drama. Nice provides for a commission where the number of commissioners is less than the number of member states.

If there is a substantial reduction in the number of commissioners, which could imply merging some significant portfolios while dumping lesser jobs, it remains unclear how this would gel with Barroso’s stated intention to have new portfolios such as climate change, internal security, fundamental rights and innovation (Bulgaria has also hinted at some interest in the last-mentioned job).

For now, there is no clarity on just what implementing a Nice-style commission would mean in reality, unless the waiting game is continued until Lisbon can be implemented and the question becomes academic.
One advantage to the delay around Lisbon is that it is giving time for negotiations and decisions in various countries that recently had elections and changes to varying degrees in their governments – Greece, which changed parties entirely, and Germany, which changed the composition of its governing coalition, for example.
Further, there is the UK, where matters are complicated by the enduring campaign to install former prime minister Tony Blair as the first long-term president of the European Council, a campaign that has ups and downs – a recent endorsement by Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi is probably more than offset by reports that French president Nicolas Sarkozy has quietly withdrawn his earlier support for Blair. Meanwhile, conservatives in the UK are using Blair in the way that Bulgarians might use Baba Yaga, as a figure of fright to scare people away from the prospect of Lisbon and into the euroskeptic camp likely to triumph in Britain’s 2010 elections.
It means a great deal more bargaining in Europe’s capitals and that, for probably quite some time, Zheleva will not be clearing her desk at the Foreign Ministry building in Sofia.