The Prague poser

European Commission President Jose Barroso and Fredrik Reinfeldt, prime minister of Sweden – the country holding the rotating presidency of the EU until December 31 2009 – were headed for Prague on October 7 to meet prime minister Jan Fischer, to pressure the Czech Republic to endorse Lisbon.

However, the picture was much more complex than just sending in high-powered European figures to bring the Czech Republic into line. First, the Czech parliament has already approved the Lisbon Treaty, and a recent poll reported in local media found that while 19 per cent of Czechs had no definite opinion on ratification, of those that did the majority were in favour, by 43 per cent to 37 per cent.

For the pro-Lisbon camp, the real problem is president Klaus and a group of senators aligned to him who have referred the question to the constitutional court, and Irish referendum or no Irish referendum, are determined to write their own script, and have asked the court to rule whether Lisbon and the Czech constitution are mutually compatible.
Kaczynski may have been playing a bargaining game, but Klaus’s objections to Lisbon are ideological, and even if the constitutional court ruled in favour – legally, Klaus cannot ratify the treaty while the constitutional question is sub judice – there is no guarantee that he would not simply spin out the process even longer.

Many expect that Klaus, even if the constitutional court clears the way, might not sign the treaty before elections scheduled for November, and even later depending on the lifespan of the current caretaker government in Prague.

Klaus balks at the prospect of what he sees Lisbon as meaning, his country subverted to a muscular Brussels that takes the helm on everything from foreign policy (among other things, those who oppose Lisbon would prefer to decide for themselves how they relate, for instance, to Russia without having to toe Brussels’s line) to employment policy and other domestic matters that, they fear, a new-style European Commission would snatch from them.

Further, seemingly inextricably linked are the approaches of Klaus and of David Cameron’s Conservative Party in the United Kingdom. For the pro-Lisbon camp, the nightmare is that a combination of Klaus leaving his pen untouched on his desk could open the way for a Tory government under Cameron to hold a referendum and pull off a victory to withdraw British endorsement of Lisbon.

Even then, that scenario is not that simple.

Perfidious Albion
If Ireland’s 2008 rejection of the treaty was a hiccough, the UK has the potential to precipitate complete cardiovascular collapse.

This was set out in Mary Ellen Synon’s Euroseptic blog on the Daily Mail website. She quoted a QC, Martin Howe, who said that his personal opinion was that UK could revoke its ratification provided it did so before the process of approval by all 27 states was complete.

"The treaty will then be dead unless the UK reinstates its ratification following a ‘yes’ vote in a referendum," Howe was quoted as saying.

On the basis that the Tories would win an election next year, Howe said that "I would expect an incoming Conservative government to demand changes to the Lisbon Treaty that meet the UK’s concerns. It would be difficult to persuade all other member states to roll back the changes made by the Lisbon Treaty and go back to the previous treaties across the whole EU. So the objective should be to modify the treaty in its application to the UK, by excluding us from areas where the expansion of EU powers has been particularly objectionable".

The story in the UK briefly became complicated when there was some back-and-forth about whether Tory leader Cameron really would go through with a promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon. Local media reported that there were differences of opinion within the Conservatives on the issue, but on October 6, the Telegraph quoted Cameron as saying that he would "go on pushing" for a referendum on Lisbon, and rejected reports of a split with London mayor Boris Johnson on the issue.

Already, the anti-Lisbon camp in the UK is making Tony Blair the bogeyman, a symbol of a new EU to be feared, playing on Conservative loathing of the former prime minister and putative first "President of Europe".

However, as with the whole story of the Lisbon Treaty, timing is ever the issue, and this brings us back to the perspective of Klaus.

To some surprise, Klaus seemed to slightly modulate his line after the Irish October 2 referendum, telling the BBC that "the people of Britain should have done something much earlier" and that it was now too late, making statements and waiting for his decision.

EC President Barroso went on record saying that he believed that, in the end, Klaus would sign. Although, in this saga, it is very difficult to say what "in the end" could mean.
Before that end is reached, another milestone looms – the October 29 and 30 summit of EU leaders at which nominations for the future President of the European Council and foreign policy boss are expected to be put forward.

The Lisbon treaty
T* Creates the post of President of the European Council, with a term of two-and-a-half-years, renewable once – the "President of Europe".
* Creates a High Representative for Foreign Affairs, with much more clout than the current High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy.
* Changes the decision-making system from unanimity to 55 per cent of member states.
* Enhances the powers of the European Parliament, giving it powers of co-decision with EU governments in several areas of legislation.