In the hours after Angela Merkel celebrated victory in Germany’s elections, there was gloom among Turkish commentators who saw her likely new coalition as bad news for Ankara’s European Union membership hopes.
 
The outgoing coalition in Berlin, which was made of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union and the country’s socialists, had in the latter a group that was more open to Turkish EU accession – even though, as an example of Berlin’s policy, Merkel found common cause with French president Nicolas Sarkozy in stating firmly during the 2009 European Parliament elections that they were against full membership for Turkey.
 
Merkel and Sarkozy offered Turkey only the prospect of a form of associate partnership.
 
The new landscape of power in Berlin will be dominated by Merkel’s CDU and the liberal Free Democrats, with the latter having previously put themselves in the camp reluctant to see Turkey in the EU.
 
Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among those who telephoned Merkel in the first few days after her September 27 2009 victory to congratulate her, even as his country’s media published gloomy stories about what Merkel’s triumph meant for Turkey, but matters took a new turn when – according to media reports a few days later, Merkel telephoned Erdogan to tell him that Germany foreign policy was under review.
 
With a new coalition, it would be a matter of course for foreign policy to be reviewed, and Turkey has been listening eagerly to every nuance in every word on the topic spoken in Germany.
 
After the first phone call, from Erdogan to Merkel, was announced, Turkish media reported that Merkel was "thinking of visiting Turkey soon".
 
But with what message?
 
Turkey’s foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu chose to remain publicly optimistic, saying that relations between Turkey and Germany were so deep-rooted and were based on commitments that they would "not be affected by any election result".
 
"Germany’s foreign policy is planned for the long run, and no change is foreseen related to strategic relations with Turkey," Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, senior foreign policy adviser Henrich Kreft was reported as saying by the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review on September 28.
 
However, ensuing days saw Turkish media seizing on more potentially hopeful messages.
 
Today's Zaman quoted a senior German Free Democrat as saying that Merkel’s plan to offer Turkey a "privileged partnership" for the EU was outdated and Turkey should get a chance to meet the bloc’s membership criteria.
 
In a comment on September 30, Hurriyet Daily News said: "The statement on Turkey by Werner Hoyer, the foreign policy spokesman for Germany’s Free Democratic Party, or FDP, certainly comes as a relief".
 
The paper reported that Hoyer had told Reuters: "We are much more open vis-à-vis Turkish membership in the European Union and now that we negotiate, we should negotiate with this possibility of Turkey joining,"
 
"I think the wording ‘privileged partnership' is a little bit outdated nowadays," Hoyer said, referring to Angela Merkel's preferred option for Turkey.
 
Hurriyet warned against jumping to conclusions too quickly.
 
In an article in Foreign Policy on September 29, Eurasia Group analysts Irmak Bademli and Wolfango Piccoli said that while the FDP's victory does not rule out Turkish membership, leading figures in the party recently said that they do not think Turkey is ready for EU membership due to "major deficits" in Ankara's efforts to meet the EU's criteria.
 
"In the near term, however, the changeover in Germany will not bring a total breakdown in Turkey-EU talks. The ongoing negotiations over Cyprus are entering a delicate stage and Merkel, like other EU leaders, wants to see them succeed," the article said.