Elections in Romania tend to be very heated affairs and the forthcoming presidential polls in November promise to be no exception.

Incumbent head of state Traian Basescu, whose approval rating of 75 per cent in the first half of 2007 made a second term appear all but guaranteed, can no longer be certain of re-election after a string of very public rows and the deepening recession.

Basescu is yet to say officially that he will stand for a second term, but his politicians in the president’s Democrat-Liberal party (PDL) have hinted that it is a matter of timing, rather than an issue whether to run for the presidency. Basescu’s speech in parliament on September 15, during which he listed what had been achieved during his first term and outlined his policy goals in the medium term, was further proof that the former ship captain planned to stand for re-election.

Among the policy priorities was pension reforms, the rapid adoption of judicial procedure laws, demanded by the European Union, and amending the constitution to clarify the president’s powers and reduce the country’s bicameral parliament to a single chamber.

Basescu has been delaying his announcement deliberately, to benefit from his standing as incumbent president, rather as just one of the other party candidates, one observer said. "For informed voters, Traian Basescu’s independence from PDL is a joke and just how Traian Basescu will be named during the electoral campaign – irrelevant. Those are just words. But there are voters, and they are not few, who vote for the president, whoever he is," Ioana Lupea wrote in an editorial comment in Evenimentul Zilei daily on September 14.

Opinion polls show that the presidential institution had higher approval ratings than Basescu the politician, and he meant to take advantage of his position, Lupea said. "It is not the PDL candidate that is campaigning throughout the country, but the president of Romania showing an interest in people’s troubles," she said.

Sharp decline
The current situation is a far cry from spring 2007, when Basescu was openly feuding with the centre-right government of the time and with parliament. After parliament accused the president of overstepping his constitutional powers, Basescu faced a recall referendum, which he won with nearly 75 per cent voting against his suspension.

But with the unpopular National-Liberal minority government ousted at the November 2008 elections and a new ruling coalition formed between PDL and their former political opponents, the Social-Democrat party, Basescu lost the main weapon he used to maintain high approval ratings – criticism of the cabinet.

Basescu would get about 35 per cent of the vote if elections were held now, a figure that has declined since the start of the year as a consequence of well-publicised media rows involving members of his family and cabinet ministers he endorsed, according to website infopolitic.ro, which analyses public opinion polls in Romania.

Nevertheless, he was still ahead of Social-Democrat leader Mircea Geoana and National-Liberal leader Crin Antonescu, who would get about 20 to 25 per cent and 15 to 20 per cent, respectively, infopolitic.ro analysts said.

But with just two months left before the first round of the elections, to be held on November 22, Basescu had little room for growth and could lose even more ground should the mayor of Bucharest, Sorin Oprescu, decide to join the race.

Oprescu lost Bucharest city hall elections twice as PSD candidate, including to Basescu in 2004, but won in 2008 as an independent candidate. Opinion polls show his approval rating rivals that of Basescu and he has the most room for growth, but as an independent candidate he would lack the resources of his potential rivals, infopolitic.ro said. Support from his former party, the Social-Democrats, would enhance his chances, some polls suggesting that he would do better than Geoana, but the PSD leader appears set on running for the presidency himself.

Media wars
Basescu has always sought to be actively involved in policy-making even in those areas where he has no power to influence the process, often describing himself as the "involved president". His constant courtship of the limelight gave the media plenty of ammunition to take shots at the president, but public rows had little impact on his approval ratings, which were boosted by his endless feud with the Calin Popescu Tariceanu cabinet in 2005/08.

His close association with the PSD-PDL government of Emil Boc and the impact of the economic recession, which forced Romania to seek a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and EU earlier this year, put a much bigger dent in his approval ratings.

But one report, by consulting firm Oxford Analytica, claimed in August that the president’s dropping approval was the direct consequence of the concerted media attacks against him, orchestrated by three "media moguls". The analysis, quoted by Evenimentul Zilei, said that the media was no longer a place for discussing policy options, but sought to instill a sense of public disillusionment with all politicians.

The report’s critics pointed out that the firm, which has no formal association with Oxford University, was founded and is still chaired by David Young, a member of the Nixon administration’s "plumbers" unit, the group linked to the attempted burglary of the Democratic National Committee offices in the Watergate building. Given Young’s history, his firm was in no position to comment on political affairs in Romania, detractors argued.

Whether the report’s conclusions are correct or not, public rows have always had a greater impact on approval ratings in Romania than policy issues. "The voters’ agenda is the one discussed by those who shape opinions, by politicians," infopolitic.ro co-ordinator Dan Sultanescu said, as quoted by daily Ziarul Financiar, pointing out that important issues like education reform got little media and civil society attention.

Nevertheless, the heated debate about the law fixing public servants’ salaries and other austerity measures proposed by the cabinet to deal with the recession, is expected to be a factor when Romanians head to the polls in November. "This time, Romanians will vote with their pockets," analyst Stelian Tanase said, as quoted by Ziarul Financiar.