In the sea, small fish feed on seaweed and plankton, the big fish feed on the small, we humans fish both sardines and sharks. All are part of the food chain, albeit some are at the top, and others lower down. Tourism is no different – tourists fill up hotels and eat in restaurants, suppliers sell to restaurants and hotels what they had bought from producers. If any link is removed, everyone suffers.

The forecasts for this summer tourist season are not very good and it is expected that fewer foreigners will choose Bulgaria for their holidays than last year, mainly because of the global economic slowdown. The decline will be felt not only by hotel owners, restaurants and travel companies, but hundreds of other companies. Firms from the widest range of economic sectors that are influenced by the tourist season are already feeling their business slow down and are preparing for tough times ahead.

Dependence
If the season confirms the dire forecasts, some sectors will be affected worse than others. Food producers and distributors might only see their revenues decline and profits shrink, but seafront establishments are looking at finishing the season at a loss. Naturally, the less dependent the business on seaside tourism, the lower the overall risk.

"The summer season is of key importance to our business. Every time the temperatures go up by one degree, consumption of mineral and spring water goes up by three per cent. We are preparing for the new season," said Georgi Serafimov, one of the managers at water bottling company Devin.
Kristian Yonchev, the commercial director of ice-cream maker Jimmy’s, said that the company was already feeling the impact. "The summer is the time of the year when our company should be working at full capacity, but business has been slow," he said.

Late start
The summer season has started slowly this year. At the beginning of June, finding an open restaurant for dinner in the centre of Pomorie resort was almost impossible. In Sozopol, it is still mostly establishments in the old part of the town and the main street that are open for business. In Zlatni Pyassutsi (Golden Sands), the seafront and beach cafes are only now waking from their winter slumber.It is an unusual sight for the Bulgarian Black Sea resorts for the middle of June – in other years, by now they would normally be feverishly serving customers.

The late start to the season is being felt by distribution firms, importers and producers of foods and beverages. Until last year, these companies would already see a jump in their turnover in April, as seaside establishments loaded up on goods for the coming season. This year, there was nothing of the kind.

"The summer season is starting late. We do not even know if it has started in earnest really," said Dimitar Hristov, the executive director of Avendi, one of Bulgaria’s biggest fast-moving consumer goods firms. "Usually, seaside establishments put in large orders at the start of the season, but this year there has been no such peak."

"Stores and restaurants are being careful with what they buy and are yet to place orders for the kind of goods that they normally ask for each year. The reason is that they do not know what to expect and are uncertain they will be able to sell all that they order,"Hristov said.

On one hand, small businesses are ordering less because they are uncertain of their future sales, but they are also short on cash needed to pay for it. Until last year, distribution companies, the link between producers and importers on one hand and retailers on the other side, were willing to provide the goods and defer payment.

The bulk of the goods would be delivered in two shipments, at the start of the season and half-way through it, while payment would be equally split between the middle and the end of the season. Now distributors are keen to receive cash on delivery, which most small stores that only open for summer and seaside establishments cannot afford.

"Some intermediaries even prefer to cancel their deliveries altogether and take a hit on their turnover rather than ship the goods and then be unable to collect any money for it," Jimmy’s Yonchev said.

Hotels are also uncharacteristically frugal. "It is normal that since we expect fewer tourists, we have been ordering lower amounts of goods that the resort needs and we are doing it on shorter notice," the head of supply and logistics at Albena resort, Hristo Penev, said.