On the eve of the European Council meeting starting on June 18 2009, it became clear that Jose Barroso would not see his hopes fulfilled that EU leaders would issue a legally-binding recommendation that he serve as a second term as European Commission President.
 
Instead, in the words of the Czech EU Presidency statement confirming the agenda for the European Council meeting, what would be sought at the meeting was "political agreement" to have Barroso designated as EC President.
 
Even with this endorsement, and even given the fact that conservative parties that would tend to back Barroso will be able to form the largest bloc in the new European Parliament, the road ahead for him is not without its complications.
 
The Barroso Dinner
 
The schedule is for European Council members – the heads of government and state of EU states – to discuss the nomination of a new EC President at a dinner on June 18 at which Barroso will not be present.
 
However, Barroso – who raised some eyebrows by announcing his candidacy for a second term well ahead of the customary timetable – sent members of the European Council a letter that amounts to a covering letter for his job application, underlining his vision of the need for a strong EU and a strong EC.
 
"This is, more than ever, the moment for action. The world will not wait for Europe," Barroso said, phrasing that may not be unrelated to signals sent from influential European leaders including French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel that they want to see more dynamic and ambitious leadership of the EC.
 
It is a fact, after all, that the Barroso Identity in his term since 2004 has been one open to criticism of not moving assertively or quickly enough as the thunderclouds of the global financial crisis gathered. However questionable the validity of blaming Barroso, it is also true that it was during his stewardship of the EC that the Lisbon Treaty – which, had it been approved, would have provided greater clarity about the leadership structure of the bloc – descended into a saga that verged on debacle.
 
The Barroso Ultimatum
 
There is a timetable for arriving at a new European Commission President, but the ultimate outcome will be affected by the fate of the Lisbon Treaty, whatever the current deadlines.
 
Provided that the European Council approves the Czech Presidency agenda item of giving "political agreement" to a second term for Barroso, the outgoing Czech Presidency – which ends at the end of June – and the incoming Swedish Presidency will conduct consultations with groups in the European Parliament on whether there is a majority to endorse Barroso by secret ballot, as EurActiv reported.
 
Under the most optimistic scenario, should consultations with the European Parliament demonstrate that a pro-Barroso majority exists, his nomination will be turned into a legal text by written procedure, without any need for EU leaders to meet again.
 
Then on July 15, the second day of the first part-session of the newly-elected European Parliament, Barroso could be officially confirmed to lead the EU executive for the next five years.
 
However, MEPs' support for Barroso is far from assured, EurActiv said. Belgian Liberal MEP Annemie Neyts-Uyttebroeck told EurActiv that there were "dissidents" inside every political group, and no group leader could guarantee support for his candidacy as the final vote in Parliament will be held by secret ballot.
 
Meanwhile, attempts to appoint Barroso under the Nice Treaty could in fact boost opposition to him. At the last European Parliament session in May, MEPs voted by an overwhelming majority to appoint the next Commission president under the Lisbon Treaty.
 
EurActiv quoted an EU ambassador, speaking on condition of anonymity, as saying: "-- "There is a risk that by the end of the year we may end up without a Commission president, without a Commission and without the Lisbon Treaty".
 
The Barroso Supremacy?
 
Should the Lisbon Treaty come into force, with much riding on the decision by Irish voters in the autumn, the scenario could arise that Barroso, even if he has been elected to a second term under the Nice Treaty currently in force, could face a fresh vote under the new dispensation.
 
One of the key differences between Nice and Lisbon is that should the new treaty come into effect, Barroso would require the approval of an absolute majority of all MEPs, not just a majority of those present at a sitting where a vote on the EC President’s appointment is taken. Even if all centre-right MEPs back him, the centre-right grouping does not have an absolute majority in the 736-seat European Parliament.
 
However, this may be running ahead of matters. Reports have suggested that the left-wing bloc could agree to a deal if it is given the post of President of the European Parliament.
 
Even then, even if there really was to be such a deal, there is not a great deal of time to secure it. The new European Parliament is scheduled to hold its first sitting on July 14, and in a statement on June 17, confirmed that its first act would be to elect a new President of the parliament.