Bulgaria’s European Parliament elections were seen as a dry run for the July 2009 national parliamentary elections, and have set the scene for the complex contest ahead in the next few weeks.

Several analysts have suggested that the results of the June 7 vote will not simply be repeated next month, in part because projections are that turnout will be higher.

Among individual parties, the natural key consideration will be gaining power, but at national level, the need for stability will be imperative, not only for the sake of dealing with what has become the routine issue of Bulgaria’s inadequacy as a member of the European Union, but also to come up with a much more dynamic and realistic response to the economic and financial crisis.

While it is true that the June 7 results should not be extrapolated to predict July 5, it appears unlikely that Boiko Borissov’s party will achieve support in the next elections that is substantially stronger.

Further, it is difficult for the moment to imagine a coalition Cabinet made up of just two parties. A further factor to consider is that if voter turnout next month is indeed higher, fewer parties and coalitions will make it across the threshold than did in the European Parliament elections.

It is certain that each party with a chance to get into the National Assembly is making its own calculations and having talks with potential partners, even those now publicly written off as beyond consideration.

After the elections, arithmetic may well triumph over ideological differences and even old vendettas, the latter a factor that tends to play a disproportionate role in Bulgarian politics.

While Borissov did less well in the European Parliament elections than his own people might have expected, it is difficult if not impossible at the moment to imagine any coalition that did not include his party as the dominant partner.

Whatever is said publicly, it is also difficult, although perhaps possible, to imagine that a governing coalition might not include at least one of the parties from the current Government.

Building a governing coalition only from parties not part of the current coalition might produce only an entity that is made up of disparate and dissenting parts, yet including one or more of the current governing parties could also lay political time-bombs in the long-term.

What is certain is that after the elections are over, the country will not be able to afford a long wait until there is certainty about who will be in charge. Whatever that coalition proves to be, as ever, it is to be hoped that the primary consideration will be Bulgaria’s national interest and the urgent problems facing the country.