For once, the results of the June 7 elections for the 17 Bulgarian members of European Parliament confirmed polling agencies’ predictions that the next Bulgarian government will have to be formed by a coalition, the only question being how wide this coalition will be.

The answer will come after July 5, when Bulgaria will vote for its national Parliament, but the June 7 MEP elections gave Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov’s party the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (abbreviated as GERB in Bulgarian) the largest share of votes and Bulgaria’s seats in the European Parliament, five MEPs with 24.36 per cent of the votes.

The ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party won four seats with 18.50 per cent, followed by BSP ruling coalition partner, the Movement for Right and Freedoms (MRF), with three MEPs or 14.14 per cent, ultra-nationalist Ataka party with two MEPs and 11.96 per cent, the third ruling coalition partner the National Movement for Stability and Progress (NMSP) with two MEPs or 7.96 per cent and the  right-wing Blue Coalition was left with just one MEP with its 7.95 per cent of the votes, or 361 votes less than the NMSP.
Before the elections, GERB had announced that whatever happened it would stand alone in the Bulgarian Parliament elections and ruled out forming a ruling coalition with the BSP and the MRF, leaving the door open to the NMSP and the Blue Coalition, despite previous statements by Borissov that GERB will rule only if it has its own majority in Parliament.

The MEP elections, however, showed that while they often have differing views, most notably on the economy and public spending, the three ruling parties combined won the biggest number of Bulgaria’s seats in the EP – nine - or 40.6 per cent of the vote, which is considerably more than the votes of GERB and the Blue Coalition combined, 32.21 per cent. The three recently formed political forces, Lider, Napred coalition and Law, Order and Justice showed good potential amid allegations of vote buying, by getting a combined election result of 12.6 per cent. The three parties, however, are very unlikely to stand together, given the allegations of vote buying that LOJ leader Yane Yanev made against Lider.

Ataka got the same message from all other parties that won seats in the European Parliament – none wants to be in coalition with it.

 In such a situation, the only way out for GERB seems to be forming a coalition with the Blue Coalition and taking advantage of the last-minute amendment to the election act that introduced majority voting to elect individual candidates. Out of the 240-seat Parliament, 31 MPs will be elected by majority vote. At first highly opposed to the idea, calling it the "ruling parties’ attempt to win elections in advance", the Blue Coalition has decided to use these 31 MPs against the BSP and the MRF. That’s why the first thing the Blue Coalition did after the June 7 elections was to ask GERB’s co-operation in supporting 31 joint candidates.

However, the first round of talks between the two parties on June 9 failed after Borissov asked for the Blue Coalition’s unconditional support for his candidates. Talks were to continue, but Borissov’s firm position naturally forced the Blue Coalition to go seeking partners elsewhere. Based on the MEP elections results, the only alternative so far seems to be the right-wing parties that make up the Napred coalition, an unpromising prospect for the Blue Coalition at the July 5 elections.