Voters who returned a predominantly centre-right European Parliament in the June 2009 elections, along with the backing of several influential European leaders, seemed set to make the success of Jose Barroso’s candidacy for a second term as head of the European Commission a certainty – but he will not have a completely smooth ride.
 
At a news conference in Brussels on June 10, Barroso – who a day before transformed his informal campaign for re-election into an official one – urged leaders of the EU to make a decision on a nomination at their European Council meeting scheduled for June 18 and 19.
 
He did so against the background of reports that quarters, including one of his most powerful backers, German chancellor Angela Merkel, wanted to postpone the decision.
 
Initially, provisional plans were for the formal nomination to take place on June 18 and 19, with a vote of confirmation in the European Parliament on July 15.
 
This is no longer certain, reportedly because some EU leaders want to wait to see whether the Lisbon Treaty will be approved. If it is, and that remains very much an "if", a new leadership structure would have to be put in place, significantly including the new post of a "president of Europe".
 
Barroso insisted at the news conference that the treaty in force governing the selection of a European Commission President is the Treaty of Nice. "The decisions we take in the EU always respect the treaty," he said.
 
The question of timing, with most observers believing that a delay could go some way to harming Barroso’s prospects, is not the only complication.
 
Several European news media reported on June 9 that socialists, Greens and liberals were working on a joint campaign to attempt to block Barroso’s return.
 
Euronews quoted Greens leader Daniel Cohn-Bendit as saying that there was a "big majority" in France that opposed Barroso.
 
Reports said that the groups would probably back Belgium’s former prime minister Guy Verhofstadt as an alternative candidate. Verhofstadt’s name has been specifically mentioned by Francois Bayrou, leader of French liberal party MoDem.
 
Whether Barroso returns has obvious implications for the future European Commission, with countries and politicians already taking the Barroso factor into consideration.
 
In Bulgaria, it is widely believed that should Barroso return as the head of the commission, he will want to see Bulgaria’s Meglena Kouneva re-appointed.
Kouneva became European Consumer Protection Commissioner in 2007 after Bulgaria joined the EU, but in the country’s June 7 2009 European Parliament elections, won a place as an MEP at the head of the ticket of Simeon Saxe-Coburg’s party, the National Movement for Stability and Progress.
 
Currently, Kouneva is considering her options, whether to sit as an MEP or to be available for nomination as a commissioner – in which lies a further complication because a commissioner must be formally nominated by the country of which the candidate is a citizen, and some reports in Bulgaria have suggested that the government may nominate someone else – with the name of current Foreign Minister Ivailo Kalfin (also a successful MEP candidate) being mentioned.
 
Further complicating the question is the fact that Bulgaria goes to the polls to elect a new National Assembly on July 5, and it is unclear how long it will take for a Government to be formed. On top of that, neither Kouneva nor Kalfin come from the party expected to take the largest share of the vote, Boiko Borissov’s Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, and in public Borissov has said that he would not form a coalition with the Coalition for Bulgaria, the socialist party on whose ticket Kalfin was elected.
 
In Bulgaria’s northern neighbour, Romania, newspapers in Bucharest said on June 11 that should Barroso keep his job, several current EC members could stand good chances of keeping their jobs.
 
This would limit opportunities for a Romanian to get an important portfolio, although should Romania’s share of seats in the European Parliament be taken into account, the distribution of portfolios would favour the country by giving it access to an important portfolio, Jurnalul National said.