Fri, Feb 10 2012

Mr Safe

Fri, Jun 05 2009 10:00 CET 1531 Views
Mr Safe

Ivan Iskrov

Photo: Anelia Nikolova.

Predictability and prudence are two qualities to be prized in central bankers, not least in Bulgaria, where the scars of the banking system’s collapse in 1997 are still very fresh in the collective memory.

Incumbent Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) governor, Ivan Iskrov, has shown plenty of both during his first term in office and was the safe choice to continue overseeing Bulgaria’s monetary policy, MPs from the ruling coalition said on May 28, when they voted in favour of giving Iskrov six more years at the helm of the central bank.

Under Iskrov, the BNB has provided a more somber outlook on the economy to the sometimes overly exuberant Cabinet ministers, but never clashed with the Government on issues of macroeconomic policy.

Iskrov has played it safe in more ways than one during his time in office. If one were to track his media appearances over six years, the words "currency board", "will not be abolished" and "not negotiable" would be right there in the top five phrases he has used the most. But with nearly-unanimous political and public support for the currency board, the task to defend its necessity has not been an onerous one.

Generally described as conservative in his policy approach, Iskrov has been praised for his efforts to curb lending by raising the mandatory reserve requirements on deposits during Bulgaria’s lending boom years. The measures yielded limited results while Bulgarian lenders had easy access to cheap credit and it was not until the credit crunch cut into the cashflows of Bulgarian banks that growth rates began slowing down.

On issues of monetary policy, however, Iskrov has rarely been in the spotlight because the currency board, which pegs the lev to the euro, significantly limits leeway on this issue.

Iskrov has generally shunned controversy, but his second term sparked another row between the ruling coalition and opposition parties, albeit it had less to do with Iskrov himself and more with procedural issues. Out of the spate of late appointments to key positions state institutions, made by Parliament in May, his is one raising the most legal doubts.

Opposition parties mostly boycotted the vote, arguing that the ruling coalition disregarded the BNB Act, which stipulates that the BNB governor appointment process has to start three months before the incumbent’s term expires. Opposition MP Vesselin Metodiev, from the Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria party, accused the ruling coalition of blatant disregard for the law and of setting an unwelcome precedent.

Mladen Chervenyakov from the Socialist party, the senior partner in the tripartite ruling coalition, countered by saying that when the three months period begins, on July 9, there would be no legislature to start the process. Bulgaria will hold national parliamentary elections on July 5.

The BNB act does stipulate, however, that should the appointment process run late, the incumbent continues to carry out his duties on a caretaker basis. Ironically, the provision was inserted in the law to avoid a repeat of the uncertainty caused by the protracted political maneuvering that preceded Iskrov’s own appointment in 2003, nearly four months after the term of his predecessor Svetoslav Gavriiski expired.

Opposition parties have vowed to review the long list of last-minute appointments made by the outgoing legislature should they win the election. Although he has not been singled out by the opposition, Iskrov could still find himself on the shortlist of key officials whose appointment a new coalition in power would seek to overturn.

And since he has not been nominated by the Socialists, his loss would be easy to swallow for the erstwhile senior partner in the ruling coalition, marking him as a safe bet yet in another way.

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