A week ahead of the June 7 elections for Bulgarian members of European Parliament, most surveys show that Bulgaria will enjoy a higher voter turnout than the rest of the European Union. A survey by Sova Harris on May 19-25 said that turnout would be more than 40 per cent. An MBMD survey said that it could be about 35 per cent.

On one hand, both surveys showed that MEP elections enjoy higher voter interest in Bulgaria than in other EU member states but, on the other hand, this can be attributed to the fact that Bulgarians will vote for the second time just one month later.

Bulgarian politicians and their supporters seem to have taken the European elections as the acid test ahead of elections for Bulgarian Parliament, scheduled for July 5. As acknowledged by many media reports, the MEP election campaign has been one of the quietest ever held in Bulgaria.

Besides TV spots and sporadic billboards in larger cities, politicians and their parties have decided to save their efforts and funds for the "true" campaign for Bulgarian Parliament elections.

Even the very active Blue Coalition, formed by two right-wing parties, the Union of Democratic Forces and the Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria, pulled down some of their election billboards in Sofia a week ahead of elections.

Prime Minister and leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) Sergei Stanishev has been running a TV election spot calling on people to vote at the June 7 MEP elections while also asking them for a second term in office after the July 5 Bulgarian Parliament elections. Consequently there was hardly a debate on European Union issues in Bulgaria.

Almost all the (few) TV debates were on issues that rest in the hands of the next Bulgarian government, such as restoring the EU’s trust in Bulgaria’s ability to absorb EU funds, fighting corruption and crime and maintaining the country’s economic stability amid the ongoing economic crisis.

Even Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov, leader of the biggest party in opposition, the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, (abbreviated as GERB in Bulgarian), known for his affection for media stunts, kept a low profile during the campaign while recovering from a leg injury he sustained at a football match.

Ultra-nationalist Ataka party were also quiet for much of the campaign, if one discounts the June 2 stunt when its leader Volen Siderov shouted vulgar abuse at Stanishev and the BSP during a ceremony commemorating one of Bulgaria’s greatest poets and revolutionaries, Hristo Botev.

In such a situation it was unsurprising that most surveys found it hard to identify people’s moods and results often varied. All agreed, however, that turnout will decide whether the Blue Coalition will make it through and whether the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which traditionally represents Muslim Bulgarians, will emerge triumphant.

According to MBMD, if turnout is 35 per cent GERB will get between five and six seats, BSP between four and five, the MRF three or four, Ataka one or two and the Blue Coalition one. If turnout is lower, the MRF could grab the biggest number of seats leaving the Blue Coalition out of the equation as happened in the previous elections in 2007.