The parties that seek to be the inheritors of the old Union of Democratic Forces tradition seem fated to be outmanoeuvred at every turn, including at their own hands; for it seems that one key aspect of their old tradition that is lost is the notion of unity itself.

For a long time, opinion polls have suggested that the party likely to get the most votes in the national election on July 5 is Boiko Borissov’s Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, customarily known by its Bulgarian abbreviation, GERB. The performance of other parties, especially the current majority partner in government - the Bulgarian Socialist Party - will determine whether Borissov will be able to form a government without requiring a coalition. If a coalition is required, the BSP has been working hard to prevent the intended UDF-Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria "Blue Coalition" becoming an option for Borissov as a coalition partner.

Not only has it been brought about that the threshold for coalitions to enter Parliament will be extraordinarily high, but internal conflicts have prevented the Blue Coalition getting out of the starting gate. The intention to make the economy the campaign issue is certainly a legitimate one, but the strategy and tactics being used to hamstring the right-wing have left the field open for the BSP to launch a campaign claiming expertise in curing Bulgaria’s economic ills. Not only that, but there is also the question of whether some sort of behind-the-scenes relationship between the BSP-Movement for Rights and Freedoms axis, on the one side, and Yane Yanev’s Order, Law and Justice party has been cultivated to further divide the "mainstream" right by allowing Yanev to be presented as a dynamic right-wing campaigner.

Apart from a no-holds-barred campaign that is relying on everything from changing the rules to its own benefit to claiming that it is well-placed to deal with the economy - and thus seeking to turn the very point on which it may be vulnerable, instead into an advantage, the BSP may draw on the notion that a nervous populace could seek some sort of "socialist" shelter in difficult times.

What so far remains to be seen is the basis of the GERB campaign, unless it is to be purely on the basis of Borissov’s attractiveness as its poster boy. It seems that some major political players are setting the stage for a broad-based coalition of the BSP, GERB and possibly some others, and when the time comes, will claim that this is in "the national interest".