Political and business leaders in South Eastern Europe have offered a diverse range of messages in recent days amid reduced growth forecasts and other troubling indicators of the global economic crisis taking hold on the region.

One of the few positive notes was sounded in a speech in Athens on January 24 2009 by Greek prime minister Costas Karamanlis who, according to Greek media reports, emphasised the European Union's role as a buffer against the worst repercussions of the current economic crisis.

"The crisis points out to European citizens how much more serious the repercussions would be for the economies of their countries if these were outside the EU," Karamanlis said.

Karamanlis said that the economic crisis would be unpredictable both in terms of its depth and duration, noting that it was not only the job of governments to deal with the problems but also the social partners in every country, who needed to adopt a responsible attitude.

He emphasised the need for a collective answer by the EU to the economic crisis, describing it as a challenge whose repercussions could be contained through co-ordinated action within the EU, which was would thus be able to "convert the international challenge into a European opportunity".

From Belgrade, Serbian news site B92 reported that the local currency, the dinar, would on January 26 2009 slide to a new low against the euro.

The official National Bank of Serbia (NBS) exchange rate would be 95.46 dinars for one euro, marking a drop of seven per cent in the value of the domestic currency since the start of 2009.

A low level of transactions on the inter-banking hard currency market and dwindling hard currency inflow have all contributed to this, Serbian Chamber of Commerce (PKS) Associate Goran Nikolic said, as quoted by B92.

Nikolic said that Serbia was no exception, since the currencies of Hungary, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic had all lost between five and eight per cent in their values.

He did not expect the slide to continue significantly in the coming months. Otherwise, the NBS would have to renounce its declared goals: maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, and preserving the hard currency reserves.

A statement on January 23 2009 from the office of Serbian prime minister Mirko Cvetkovic said that Serbia hoped to offer a billion euro in subsidies for the economy to ensure a 3.5 per cent GDP growth in 2009 and plans to rely on banks, not the budget, for most of the funding.

Ziare.com reported from Bucharest that Romanian prime minister Emil Boc said on January 24 that the Romanian government would protect people with low salaries and pensions.

"It is a fact that we are going to face a hard year. It will be really hard time for all countries and the situation could be handled with two basic principles - unity and solidarity. The government will focus on economic policy so that to secure new jobs and prosperity - the country must secure resources to cover the payment of salaries and pensions," Boc said.
 
On January 24, Mediafax reported that Romanian president Traian Basescu said that Romania would not be affected by the economic crisis the way other countries are affected, adding this is a solid reason for the country to start its modernisation process now.
 
In a statement ahead of an International Monetary Fund mission to Romania beginning on January 26, the IMF said that the agenda for the talks did not include IMF funding for Romania.

"The government has not requested an IMF programme, and therefore there are no discussions about it on the mission's agenda," the IMF said on January 23. "Moreover, we are not exerting any pressure on the government to request an IMF programme."

Turkey's Zaman reported on January 22 that Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association chairperson Arzuhan Dogan Yalcindag had told the association's general assembly that the lack of will to define expectations for the Turkish economy and an atmosphere of uncertainty had harmed the country.

She said the government should determine the economic growth target for 2009.

"We still discuss if growth in 2009 will be between minus four and four per cent. Such a fact adds to the already bleak atmosphere in the markets. We need to break this `vicious circle' as soon as possible so as to prevent things from growing worse," she said.

Hurriyet reported from Ankara that Turkish economists and businessmen expected the economy to grow 0.4 per cent this year, according to the central bank's biweekly survey published on its website on January 23.

 The forecast compare with the previous estimate of 1.1 per cent in the survey two weeks earlier. The government's budget plans for 2009 foresee growth of four per cent.

Consumer prices will rise 7.46 per cent over the next 12 months, compared with the 7.64 per cent forecast in the previous survey, the central bank said. The bank is aiming to slow inflation to 7.5 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent in 2010 after missing its goals for the previous three years.

In Skopje on January 21, Macedonian National Bank governor Petar Goshev said that the country's economic growth for 2009 would be between three per cent and 4.5 per cent, with inflation of 2.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

He said that the year "brings huge uncertainties for countries with small and open economies like the Macedonian economy," adding that economic growth would slow from last year's pace.

Goshev said that the central bank would focus on price stability as its primary monetary goal this year.

Because of the global economic crisis, Macedonia should expect slow economic growth, lower foreign currency inflow, less saving and less credit. However, bank liquidity was not in danger, although there were slight difficulties in accessing fresh money, Goshev said.