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Year-on-year inflation down to single digits, November sees deflation

Fri, Dec 12 2008 11:46 CET

byAlex Bivol

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Year-on-year inflation in Bulgaria fell to single-digits after the consumer price index (CPI) in November shrunk by 0.1 per cent, preliminary data released by the National Statistical Institute (NSI) on December 12 2008 showed. After five months of steady decline, year-on-year inflation fell to 9.1 per cent at end-November, dropping sharply from 10.9 per cent a month earlier.

Deflation in November was caused by the 0.4 per cent drops in non-food and services prices. Food prices were 0.4 per cent higher for the month.

The harmonised consumer price index (CPI), the figure calculated by the statistics board for comparison with inflation in the European Union, recorded an even larger recoil, shrinking by 0.4 per cent in November, while the year-on-year inflation figure fell to 8.8 per cent. In October, the harmonised CPI grew by 0.1 per cent and was 11.2 per cent year-on-year.

The Cabinet had targeted a harmonised inflation figure of 4.5 per cent for the year, according to the macroeconomic framework used to draft the 2008 budget, and has not officially revised it.

Bulgarian National Bank's most recent forecast, issued in July, said that it expected year-on-year inflation, which peaked at a ten-year high of 15.3 per cent in June, to go down in the second half of the year and reach eight per cent by end-2008. Cumulative inflation through November was 7.6 per cent, according to NSI data.

The European Commission, which was less optimistic in its forecast, expects end-year inflation to be 9.9 per cent.

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