Since November 20, the question of banning smoking in public areas and workplaces in Bulgaria depends solely on the speed of the country's bureaucratic and legislative machine. On that day the Government finally adopted a controversial decision to ban smoking in public places from June 1 2010. To make this ban effective, Parliament will now have to adopt amendments to the Public Health Act approved by the Cabinet and integrate them into Bulgaria's legislation. How long it will take Parliament to do that remains to be seen. But now, at least, the deadline for such a ban has been set.

Such a move has been mooted for years, despite successive governments' inaction.

Now in its last year in office, the current tri-partite Government has risked the anger of millions of Bulgarian smokers by ruling that, as of 2010, smoking in bars, restaurants and coffee shops will be forbidden.

The Government's decision is not without precedent on the Balkans, a region traditionally home to many smokers. As reported by The Sofia Echo, Croatia recently introduced a ban and the Greek parliament also voted to introduce one from January 1 2010.

In most countries where such a ban has already been enforced debates, on either side have dwelt on two groups who oppose the restriction: bar and restaurant owners who fear losing customers, and smokers who resent the "nanny state" controlling their health. In Bulgaria, so far, neither of these two social groups has raised concerns.
TV reports occasionally show interviews with people on the street who agree that smoking is nominally bad for one's health. Restaurateurs maintain that diners enjoy a cigarette with their meal or when having an after-work drink. But, perhaps surprisingly, there has not been a palpable backlash against the ban. This can be attributed to the lack of strong branch organisation and the fact that 2010 is still some time away.

The pertinent question would seem to be this: why have governments waited so long to introduce a move that most people view as beneficial?

The answer might be an economic one. Up until recently Bulgaria's tobacco market was dominated mostly by the brands of state-owned cigarette producer Bulgartabac. It still is the only company making cigarettes in Bulgaria, providing salaries to several thousands of people in the process. These range from people employed in its production to hundreds of farmers growing tobacco in the mountains.

As reported by Bulgarian media, including The Sofia Echo, the fate of Bulgartabac has been a subject of many arguments and disputes not just in the present government but in previous ones, too. Of all the parties, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) has emerged as the one most concerned about what would befall farmers once Bulgartabac is sold. The MRF has always believed that the company must be sold in one go, including all its factories and production units. Investors, on the other hand, were only interested in those units that were actually making a profit.

This has cost the state several investors who have shown interest in buying separate Bulgartabac factories. This lack of agreement about the company's fate meant that the Government was stuck with hundreds of workers and farmers dependent on the market "success" of Bulgartabac's brands. Introducing a ban on smoking that would affect this "success" (based, of course, on Bulgartabac's market monopoly) was not very welcome.

The lack of serious interest in a wholesale sale of Bulgartabac, however, forced the MRF into a compromise and the Government into a U-turn. Bulgartabac's factories are now being sold piecemeal through the Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE). The first was a factory in Sluntse Stara Zagora. The second was Plovdiv Tobacco Factory.

The former was bought for 18 million leva by Business Centre Izgrev; the latter was bought by local Sigma Consulting for 30 million leva. The two sales showed that using the BSE as a selling tool was a working mechanism for the privatisation of Bulgartabac holding. Now the holding's two other major factories, in Sofia and Blagoevgrad, are about to be sold.

With private companies soon to take charge of cigarette production in Bulgaria, the Government's plan to ban smoking looks more feasible. The Government also pledged to accept a new schedule for hiking cigarette excise duties. This would push the prices of expensive brands through the roof but the low-end brands only marginally higher. Beyond doubt this would serve as a lifeline to Bulgartabac's remaining production as well as to any other producer of low-cost cigarettes. The bill, which is yet to hit the Parliament floor, sets the excise duty at 40.5 leva for 1000 cigarettes plus 42 per cent of the retail price.

This puts any major cigarette importer such as the two main rivals - British American Tobacco and Philip Morris - in unfavourable positions since most of their brands are deemed expensive in Bulgaria. Meanwhile, less than five months after they bought the Stara Zagora and Plovdiv factories, their owners announced that they were launching two new low-cost cigarette brands: Armeets brand will be produced by Sluntse Stara Zagora in six variations with prices varying from 2.30 leva to 2.45 leva a pack. The Plovdiv Tobacco Factory will produce cigarettes under the name of Merlin with prices between 2.30 leva and 2.80 leva a pack.