If Europeans could vote in US elections, Obama would win by a landslide - but opinion is more evenly split in the Balkans.

Two weeks before US Presidential elections, people throughout the Balkans are watching the campaign closely and, in some cases, hoping for a victory by Barack Obama or John McCain.

US policy has had a major impact in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo and Serbia over two decades, which helps explain the high level of interest.

While Romanians feel less engaged in the outcome, in the Western Balkans the US campaign is day-to-day news, and there are lively debates over which candidate would make a better president.

Unlike in previous campaigns, interest in the vice-presidential race is keen this time round. The debate between Joseph Biden and Sarah Palin was followed as avidly in the region as the debates between the main candidates.

And while an opinion poll by the Economist shows most Europeans strongly prefer Obama to McCain, preferences in South-Eastern Europe are more variable.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina support is strong for Obama, for example, while Macedonians prefer McCain, who has been more supportive of Skopje in the "name" dispute with Greece.

Albania: Obama good, McCain also good
In Albania, whatever is American tends to be viewed positively. Therefore, although the results of the Economist poll show 75 per cent of Albanians support Obama, many Albanians view McCain as equally acceptable.

Blendi Kraja, an analyst who has followed the campaign, says the the poll reveals "infinite ignorance" among Albanian people. "This is not the case with Albanians only, but also with most European countries, who believe that only because a candidate is young, 47, and black, he represents a positive vibe," Kraja says.

According to Mentor Nazarko, a political commentator: "Both candidates are seen in similar ways… McCain has a track record of taking pro-Albanian stances, while Obama has not had the chance to do that yet."

While the Albanian community in the US is divided over the candidates, if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic nominee, the choice would have been easier. She and her husband have both been decorated by the Albanian government. [When? over Kosovo?] 

Bosnia - too busy to notice
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the US elections are taking place amidst the biggest domestic political crisis in years. Overall, most people appear to show greater sympathy for Obama, feeling his victory would renew the commitment of America's Democrats to their country, especially as Obama's candidate for vice-president, Joseph Biden, and likely nominee for secretary of state, Richard Holbrooke, have been deeply involved in the Balkans.

According to Gordana Katana, a journalist in Banja Luka, the Democrats "would pay more attention to Bosnia".

Bosniaks feel closer to the Democrats than Serbs, as a result of former president Bill Clinton's key role in ending the 1992/95 conflict. But many Bosnian Serbs also favour Obama, convinced that a Republican White House has been politically and economically unsuccessful on the world stage. "Even Serbs would vote for Democrats, although Clinton bombed them, first in Bosnia and then in Kosovo," Katana says.

Some in Bosnia and Herzegovina, however, believe that whoever becomes president, they will be too busy dealing with other hot issues, such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, to deal with Bosnia. "It doesn't really matters who wins; it's all the same [to us]," Drazen Simic, a Sarajevo-based reporter, says.

Croatia is Obama-ised
Although Croats generally lean towards right-of-centre governments, many appear to back Obama. The Economist's results show 80 per cent of Croats support Obama, and there are many indications that Croats oppose the policies of George W Bush.

Andjelko Milardovic, head of the Political Science Research Centre, says Bush's mistakes have "generated an economic crisis that can be compared only to the one that happened in the 1920s." This and the war in Iraq are the primary reasons given by Croats when asked why they support Obama. Danica Filipic, 33, a bank manager, sees the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as the worst aspects of Bush's mandate. She fears another Republican administration would continue in the same way. For 34-year-old journalist Nikola Jerkov, Obama simply "knows the formula for America's future."

Milardovic points out that "the possible shift to the Democrats does not necessarily mean US foreign policy will fundamentally change," because America's strategic interests are "sacrosanct in every administration". Under the Democrats, though, they may "at least be less aggressively pursued", however.

Kosovo cannot choose
The Economist poll revealed Kosovars to be strong supporters of Obama, though many favour McCain, and a few wish Hillary Clinton were running. Journalist Artan Mustafa was an admirer of Clinton who is rooting for Obama because "his age, and the new kind of energy and leadership he is promoting are promising".

But Shqipe Abazi, a master's candidate in finance, says McCain is a better choice in terms of his policy towards the Balkans and his approach to the financial crisis. "McCain favours the continuation of American policy in the Balkans and this suits Kosovo most," she says. "Obama looks confused and sounds controversial, so he is no good for us," she adds.

Mufail Limani, a political analyst in Pristina, says that, for Kosovars, choosing between Obama and McCain "is like a mother choosing between her two twin sons." He adds: "The Democrats liberated us, and the Republicans made us a state."

Macedonia cheers McCain
Macedonians view the US election mainly through the prism of the ongoing dispute with neighbouring Greece over their country's name. "In this regard, Macedonians see McCain as a better choice than Obama," Zhidas Daskalovski, a political analyst says.  This is because Obama "signed the non-binding US Senate Resolution S. 300, which is pro-Greek," he adds. Among other things, the resolution called on Macedonia to stop provocations towards Greece.

Greece argues that Macedonia's name implies a territorial claim to its own northern province of the same name. Ilina Jovanova, 33, a university professor, put her preference simply. "McCain!" she says. "The other one [Obama] is closer with the Greeks."

"Obama is more charismatic, but McCain would be better for Macedonia," agrees Slobodanka Veleska, a 62-year-old resident of Skopje.

Serbia - little faith in either
"Barack Obama, be with us always," read a large billboard on one of the main approach roads to Belgrade, when Obama was competing with Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

Anonymous Obama supporters put up the billboard in response to a speech following Kosovo's independence in which Obama noted that Serbs had suffered in the past two decades.

However, the race for the White House inspires little optimism in Serbia, as both Obama and McCain support independence for Kosovo. Four years ago the Serbian lobby in the US overwhelmingly supported George Bush, but they faced a major disappointment when his administration continued pro-independence policies towards Kosovo. "Why would we care about elections in America?" asks Goran Bakic, a bartender. That country has masterminded Kosovo's independence."

Romania indifferent
As the US campaign reaches a climax, most Romanians seem indifferent about who wins. Interest is far greater in events in next-door Hungary or Moldova, or in other EU countries.

"Who is in or out of power in Washington has no relevance to me. I am more concerned that more than half my salary goes to paying off loans," says Adrian Tomescu, owner of a small shop in a Bucharest suburb.

Political analysts worry that this is also the attitude of the country's politicians. "None of the political parties has a clear vision regarding specific relations with the future US president, whoever wins the election," says Sever Voinescu, an international affairs analyst. "They just say their main foreign policy goal is to have good relations with the US, for the sake of our security.

"Nobody speaks about the fact that Romanians still need visas to travel to the US, or about our failure to gain economic advantages even though we're a military ally of the Americans," he adds.

Who would you cast your vote for in the US presidential election? You can have your say on Balkan Insight's very own poll. Pick your choice for the White House here: http://www.balkaninsight.com/?tpl=276#mypoll

Source: BalkanInsight.com