One of the chants at the protest in the Montenegrin capital Podgorica against the government's decision to recognise Kosovo as independent was the word "betrayal!"

The October 13 protest, which drew a reported 10 000 people, turned violent and left about three dozen injured, including 23 police officers. At the protest, there were calls for a national referendum on the Kosovo question.

Serbia, Montenegro's neighbour with which it formerly was joined in a short-lived "state union" after the breakup of Yugoslavia, certainly may feel a sense of betrayal. Not only at Montenegro's decision, but also that Macedonia - another former Yugoslav country that shares with Serbia and Montenegro an adherence to Orthodox Christianity and people who have no affection for the idea of an independent ethnic Albanian enclave - chose simultaneously to recognise Kosovo.

Among countries geographically close to Serbia, and in some cases close in terms of religion and culture to it, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Macedonia recognise Kosovo, while Romania and Greece do not, although Athens recently did agree to accept Kosovo passports. The decisions in Podgorica and Skopje, coming a few months after the decision in Sofia, heightened the sense in Serbia of once again being betrayed by its neighbours.

Russia, Serbia's ally in vehemently opposing Kosovo's independence, said that the decisions by Montenegro and Macedonia had been made under Western pressure. Several media reports and other comments suggested that the decisions were made as a means of advancing the two countries' EU prospects.

This is denied. Media reports on October 15 quoted unnamed EU officials in Brussels as saying: "It is well known that the EU itself has no common stand on the recognition of Kosovo's independence. Then, how can it make a connection between the decision to grant Montenegro EU membership candidate status and the recognition of Kosovo by Podgorica?"

Five EU countries did not recognise Kosovo as independent, and each country - including those in South Eastern Europe - should decide the question according to their own criteria, the official was quoted as saying.

It is, of course, correct that there is no single policy, but the calculation may be reversed to say that 22 of 27 EU states do recognise Kosovo (as Pristina is fond of pointing out) and that aspirant member countries may well want to do all that they can to line up with the majority, especially if that majority includes some of the EU's most influential members.

What may be termed the "Kosovo factor" extends within Serbia itself.
On October 14, the current government headed by prime minister Mirko Cvetkovic marked 100 days in power, with Cvetkovic holding a news conference at which he listed what he saw as the government's achievements, including "the biggest diplomatic success in the fight for Kosovo".

He was referring to the United Nations General Assembly having approved a resolution proposed by Serbia to ask the International Court of Justice to give an opinion on the question: "Is the unilateral declaration of independence on the part of Kosovo's temporary institutions of self-rule in accordance with international law?"

While Serbia had expelled Macedonia's and Montenegro's ambassadors in Belgrade, it would not impose sanctions against those countries, he said.
Cvetkovic also claimed progress in European integration, including the rapid ratification by parliament in Belgrade of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU.

Predictably, Serbian opposition politicians and analysts on Monday gave assessments of Cvetkovic's first 100 days in office which ranged from wholly negative to lukewarm, as news agency AKI reported.

"If I were to give them a mark between one and 20, it would be one," said Milos Aligrudic, vice-president of former prime minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia. "The government has done nothing good," Aligrudic said.

Other opposition leaders blamed the government for failing to take action. They predicted the drive towards EU membership and the battle to retain Kosovo would be not be easy and that Serbia would face "fresh blackmail" from the international community on both these fronts.

"Ultimately, the EU will demand that we recognise Kosovo in return for European integration," Dragan Todorovic, vice-president of the opposition Serbian Radical Party, was quoted as saying by AKI.