As Kosovo Albanian leaders prepare to accept the UN's compromise package on final status, it remains unclear whether an offer that falls short of independence will spark unrest. The UN special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, was to present his package to Pristina and Belgrade on February 2.

Mainstream politicians are thought likely to approve the main recommendations, but radical groups are already announcing protests, claiming Kosovo will be locked in an undesirable status quo and forced to adopt an unpopular decentralisation plan.

Negotiations on Kosovo's final status started in Vienna in January 2006. Kosovo's and Serbia's negotiating teams tried to tackle the less contentious issues of decentralisation and protection of cultural heritage under international mediation. But after no compromise was reached, Ahtisaari was tasked with drawing up his own proposal for final status.

Sources say Ahtisaari's proposal offers Kosovo "de facto" independence, though the word will not figure explicitly in the document. It recommends that the current UN administration should give way to a European Union-led supervision body with fewer powers.

Kosovo's leaders will probably assent to the terms on the grounds that they lead to de facto independence, whatever the terminology used by the envoy.

"We expect Ahtisaari's proposal will contain key elements (leading) to the constitution of a state of Kosovo," said Fatmir Sejdiu, Kosovo's president, last week.

Hashim Thaci, head of the opposition Kosovo Democratic Party agreed. "Ahtisaari's proposal will bring Kosovo full independence, as it will allow it to apply for (membership of) international organisations such as the UN," he told Balkan Insight.

But radical groups do not agree with the political elite, stressing bitter dissatisfaction with the plan for decentralisation that would leave Serbian enclaves with more power.

They have also seized on the fact that some Albanian villages will inevitably form part of these new Serbian municipalities.

"Decentralisation means secession and secession means war," is one of the slogans of the Vetevendosje (self-determination) movement led by Albin Kurti, a former student leader. The group has announced a major protest for Pristina on February 10 against Ahtisaari's proposal.

"We intend to stop the implementation of the decentralisation plan," said Glauk Konjufca, a Vetevendosje activist. "We are working constantly with the population of the areas that will be affected by decentralisation and our supporters are increasing. We will protest now after the plan is proposed, and act later to stop it being implemented.

The Association of War Veterans and War Invalids has also expressed concerns about the UN proposal and declared it will accept nothing else but independence for Kosovo.

Faik Fazliu, head of the association, said on January 28 that if the UN proposal did not bring Kosovo to independence, "no form of citizens' reactions" could be ruled out.

Naim Rashiti, of the International Crisis Group in Pristina, fears upcoming protests may lead to violence, as people are poorly informed about the negotiating process and many have unrealistic expectations.

He said that tension could also spill over also if Serbs in northern Kosovo proclaimed their autonomy, or independence, from Kosovo.

"In that case there would probably be violence towards Serbs from Albanians," Rashiti predicted. "Conflict mitigation strategy should be focused in the divided city of Mitrovica/e."

Lulzim Peci, a security analyst, said the politicians had failed to address people's concerns about decentralisation and Ahtisaari's proposal in general.

"They are evading their responsibilities by not having a proper dialogue with citizens, which will contribute to a crisis," he said.

"The confused political marketing of Kosovo's political leadership cannot replace a dialogue with those municipal authorities and citizens that will be directly affected by decentralisation."

The analyst added that he doubted the local or international authorities in Kosovo had worked out a proper crisis management strategy.

Peci suggested violence might ensue either when the UN envoy's proposal went to the Security Council, "where there may be further changes to the disadvantage of one party or the other", or when Kosovo declares independence, when trouble is more likely to come from the Serb minority.

However, these are worst-case scenarios. Hashim Thaci, a former guerilla fighter against the Serbs, insisted protests against Ahtisaari would be totally out of place in Pristina.

Veton Elshani, of the Kosovo Police Service, also said police did not expect trouble during the following weeks. "In the event of incidents, we are ready to react fast but we have seen no need for any kind of special reinforcements," said Elshani.

Most ordinary people remain confused over what to expect from the UN, as the negotiating process has been far from transparent.

"We were never properly informed about what was going on, so we have no clue what Ahtisaari's package will contain, or how we should react to it," said Agron, a student in Pristina.

Agron said that most people currently saw no reason for more riots. "We are done with violence and people want peace," he said.

However, one young man from Mitrovica/e said he would oppose any solution that did not allow him to return home to the northern, Serb-controlled, part of town. "We should raise our voice and fight for unification," he said.

In a sign of the uncertainty that still looms over Kosovo, Albana, another student, said all options remained open. "In Kosovo, everything is possible," she said.

Krenar Gashi is BIRN Kosovo Editor. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.