If the polls are correct, incumbent President Georgi Purvanov will win a second term in office after the run-off elections on October 29, defeating ultra-nationalist Volen Siderov by a wide margin.

The first round on October 22 exposed a number of trends. First, the low turnout has been seen as a sign of disillusionment with Bulgaria's established political elites - a gap that seemed to leave most of the electorate yawning, or, as was said by several commentators on the day, preferring to go fishing or pick mushrooms rather than participate in choosing the country's head of state.

Another phenomenon is that this may be the widest political gap in Bulgaria's post-communist history, between a mainstream incumbent who is avowedly pro-European and who has stood on a platform of unity, tolerance and moderation, and a contender who has a vastly different vision of Bulgaria. A yawning gap in ideologies.

As momentum gathered for the second round, some political forces that had been on the sidelines of the first round declared themselves. GERB (Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, built around Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov) announced its endorsement of Purvanov, having backed failed centre-right candidate Nedelcho Beronov in the first round. Borissov called on supporters to back Purvanov, who he described as being the candidate Europe wants.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party's coalition partners, the National Movement Simeon II and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, made known their support for Purvanov.
The picture on the right of the political spectrum was more troubled. Those on the centre-right plainly felt less than comfortable with the prospect of the choice being between Purvanov, immediate past leader of the BSP, and ultra-nationalist Siderov, widely perceived - although Siderov denies the labels - as the poster boy for ethnic intolerance and anti-Europe sentiments.

Ivan Kostov, leader of the Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria, seen by many as having pushed forward Beronov into being the joint candidate of his party and the Union of Democratic Forces, refused to accept responsibility for failure and to resign. At the media conference after the elections Kostov refused to resign, saying that this would not change anything for the right-wing parties. Kostov said that he would "vote" on the second round but he would pick his best black marker and put a cross in the boxes of both Purvanov and Siderov - meaning a spoilt vote.

UDF leader Petar Stoyanov said that he always had his resignation "in his pocket" but by October 25, he had not produced it. Stoyanov said he would use the week until October 29 to think, when asked who he will support on second round. Beronov said he would not vote at all and would not urge anyone to do so.

The only "victim" - if the long term proves him to be such - was Stefan Sofianski, leader of the minority right-wing party the Union of Free Democrats, and a former interim prime minister and former mayor of Sofia. On October 24, Sofianski announced that he was stepping down from leadership of the party that had been formed around him when he quit the UDF.

Whatever the centre-right parties officially decided to ask their supporters to do, however, could prove immaterial as exit polls showed that many traditional right-wing supporters had defected either to Purvanov or Siderov in the first round.